Actress is FAR less competitive than Actor: for movies this century, the very worst for Actor winners is in the 70s, with 10 at least in the 80s. For Actress, only 4 are 80+, with 5 below 70.
S Actor also has 10 at 80+ with the lowest at 69 for Basterds which was a Pic/Dir/Wtg/Editing nominee, and about Nazis.
S Actress has a low of 2 in the 60s (Lez Mis, The Help).
And the voters are suckers for Real Life Important People Movies, if you insist on making Iron Lady a comparison...Southpaw has a 57, which is also too poor for an Actor vehicle.
Anyway, Steve Jobs opened in wide release and its first day did WORSE than the critically disliked Jobs with Ashton Kutcher. So Imma guess Fassbender is out as a winner, esp since it's not like he's a Hollywood favorite.
He's also the first male actor with 5 individual film nominations at the Sag Awards, so that should give them especial incentive to vote for him other than him being the frontrunner already.
