News: Trump Will Get the Nomination According to History

LP54

Quote:

Here’s some good news for Donald Trump fans: History is now on his side.

For months, members of the Republican Establishment have dismissed Trump’s chances at snagging the party’s presidential nomination. But he’s still ahead in the December polls, a signal that has boded well for GOP candidates in the past.

In fact, according to a 1999 Gallup poll analysis, in almost every election since 1952, the leader in the Republican polls in the fall ended up being the party’s nominee.

The elections since that analysis was done haven’t done much to upset this trend. In the 2008 Republican primary, Mike Huckabee was leading in December, but John McCain had been leading for months before then, and then came back to win the nomination. In 2012, Mitt Romney was leading in December, and then got the nomination.

According to the most recent poll from CNN, Trump is beating his nearest competitor, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, by 20 points, and he’s consistently been near the top of the pack since the summer.

Of course, the wildcard nature of this election suggests that there’s a good possibility the future might not look anything like the past.

One exception: 1964 nominee Barry Goldwater. In the fall of 1963, he was polling neck-and-neck with Nelson Rockefeller and not considered a clear frontrunner, but went on to win the nomination.

Democrats tend to be less predictable, and there are multiple examples of Democratic candidates who had wide leads a year before the election who went on to lose the nomination. Howard Dean was leading by double digits in late 2003, but lost the 2004 nomination to John Kerry. TIME declared Senator Edmund Muskie the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 1972, but George McGovern was picked at the convention.

Of course, presidential elections are held only every four years, and elections where neither side has an incumbent are even rarer, so drawing conclusions from the small sample of results is always a risky proposition. But for now, Trump can count history in his favor.

http://time.com/4136867/donald-trump-december-polls/

Even though history is on his side, this is still a special circumstance. He is a personality and celebrity. If he does hold strong after the debates and this fiasco then hes got it in my mind which is tragic.

Mekitor

TREMendo

I'm all for Trump getting the nod, that will just mean people on the GOP side would have to vote for the lessor of the evils - and that's def not Trump.

LP54

If he gets the the nomination, I will laugh my ass off.

I will laugh even harder if he runs as an independent.

Sasha.

Good news for the democrats

Adonis

Who else can unite black women and white men? What a KING!

TRUMP!

GreasyBruce

It's pretty obvious he's going to get it. The Trump vs. Clinton debates will be a kii.

rac7d

Inn as long as Bernie gets it for democratic
If not I will vote for him I ain't feelin hilary

Team_Avatar

Quote:

Originally posted by rac7d

Inn as long as Bernie gets it for democratic
If not I will vote for him I ain't feelin hilary

So you're going to vote for someone who has proposed banning an entire religious group based on the actions of perhaps ~2% of that entire group?

I mean Im no fan of Hillary by any means, but something is not adding up here.

Goaty

Queen Ann predicted this months ago.

teresaguidice

Quote:

Originally posted by rac7d

Inn as long as Bernie gets it for democratic
If not I will vote for him I ain't feelin hilary

your best case scenario is bernie but you'd vote for trump over hillary? um k

Pokistic

Sure Jan

jonasha

Yasssss, #trump2016

rac7d

Quote:

Originally posted by Team_Avatar

So you're going to vote for someone who has proposed banning an entire religious group based on the actions of perhaps ~2% of that entire group?

I mean Im no fan of Hillary by any means, but something is not adding up here.

I don't trust her

G.U.Y. Gaga

Quote:

Originally posted by LP54

If he gets the the nomination, I will laugh my ass off.

I will laugh even harder if he runs as an independent.

I will scream if he did so after he vowed not to

he actually has the republican party in his hand whether he wins or not

LP54

Quote:

Originally posted by teresaguidice

your best case scenario is bernie but you'd vote for trump over hillary? um k

This.

YouDaIcon

Incoming landslide Democratic victory next fall.

Even other republicans are repulsed by DT.

If Hillary wins for democratic nomination, the vast majority of democrats will just fall in line and vote for her to keep the White House democrat, and fiscal republicans and independents will vote for her because she actually has a pretty moderate foreign policy and economic policy that they can tolerate as opposed to someone extremely far left like Bernie Sanders. I predict Donald Trump will win less than 10 states if he does get the nomination.

vuelve88

Democrats still better register to vote. Pretend that you're logging on Tumblr and being a social justice warrior, but like be a social justice warrior in real life at the polling station on election day. Thx