Maybe they used my suggested Hot 100 formula. :-)

^^I hope you are right

If sales were really more important now, SOL would probably be above Here next week

Um what?
I'll Show is #19 and Watch Me is #18, but I have I'll Show You with the #7 position on streaming songs at least at #17 this week with the old formula...

And the song that is confusing me the most is Perfect only at #37. I though it would get a big increase in streaming (which it did) and get close to top 20 again (which it didn't).

I agree that they either changed the formula OR are not counting the CMA sales for the Hot 100 anymore.

So to clarify.

Song	Hot 100	Streaming	Sales	Airplay
Watch Me	#18	#8	21k (kworb)	~5 million
I'll Show You	#19	#7	36k (kworb)	0

That's just not possible. 5 million airplay can't not be worth more than 15k sales and a few streams. Billboard would never make a formula like that. That would be a way too massive change and why would they decrease the important of sales like that. Also not consistent with the rest of the Hot 100.


So I take my OR back and say they have to not count CMA sales anymore. Only possible way I see for I'll Show You to be that low.

My proposed formula was: Digital Sales/8 + Airplay/10,000 + Streaming/100 + Physical Single Sales/1. I did recommend breaking up streaming -- ODS/100 and VS/250 or 300. With these changes, there would be no need to change the recurrency policy (except of course from changing 50/20 to 50/26), because the video streaming points for older songs would be just 1/3 to 1/4 of what they were last chart year. Therefore, songs people complained about hanging around because of viral videos and regular streaming would drop off the Hot 100 on their own. ODS doesn't hang around like VS. So my formula eliminates BB's perceived "need" for this utterly ridiculous new 25/52 rule "super-recurrency" rule.

BB wouldn't make a huge change like not counting CMA sales without making an announcement. This is especially true with the unprecedented situation revolving around Adele's 25, which includes the current #1 song "Hello." BB would be accused of true chart manipulation by discontinuing credit for CMA sales two weeks before the release of 25 & its effects on Hello.

I'm open to any suggestions how Watch Me is ahead of I'll Show you...

Edit: Also Hello would still be #1 without any sales (unless they would give her minus points for negative sales) so that's fine.

Edit2: They could have changed that weeks or even months ago. Not that often that we have albums big enough (Bieber and 1D this week) where we would notice any effect of such a change.

I tweeted Gary and Silvio and asked if there had been any changes to the formula, but given the fact it's a long holiday weekend here in the US, we may not get that answer until Monday. BB may have thrown in some other metrics for all we know.

Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" lost points for about -70,000 sales (fell from #4 - #11) the week Red was released, then rebounded #11 - #5 the following week when the sales were positive again. So I don't think BB would go back to penalizing singles when the parent CD/Digital Albums are released, as that was an unpopular policy. Then again, 25/52 isn't popular either.....

Edit: BB should've said something had they made a change to the CMA rules, just like they did when SS said singles traded in for CMAs wouldn't be counted toward total sales anymore.

So a 4th unknown metric is more likely to you than not counting CMA sales anymore? K

It's so confusing with Billboard not telling us anything they do...

Yes, another added metric to the formula actually seems more likely to me than BB stopping the counting of CMAs without announcing the change. We'll find out something in a couple of days I'm sure.

What's CMA sales?

And honestly, y'all should work for BB.

Complete my album. When you buy the single before and then, when the album is out, hit "complete my album" on iTunes. Billboard subtracts those sales from digital songs so they don't count towards the song total sales, but still counts them for the Hot 100. Because the people that used the CMA button bought the song in some earlier week and it wouldn't be fair to discount them in the album release week.

CMA=Complete My Album, and I expressed my interest regarding working for BB to Gary and Silvio in the email I wrote and sent to them a couple of days ago lol. I had a music blog going before my operation I need to get going again, which would provide work samples for them to see (formats Active Rock, Alternative, Country, and sometimes AAA & Mainstream/Heritage Rock combined into a fourth article). Sorry, but I really need to get to bed now. It's 6:40 am lol!

So when you hit CMA it counts as an album sale right?

Id doesn't count as a sale for the single(s) that you bought before, right?

Yes

Will LIGLY make the top 10 this week? What are its chances?

But when Billboard changed the CMA rules the first time round (around early 2013 iirc) they didn't announce it (I might be wrong, but I remember we were confused about it for a while). If that was the case, then it's possible they'd change it back without telling us.

I would say #8-#12 will be pretty close between Fetty, Alessia,Meghan,Selena,Elle

Yes, but you still can see an effect for the single on iTunes. That's why Kworb's estimates for some songs (when the album release mostly) have a big difference. For Hot 100 purposes they don't substract CMA sales, they are just showed on the Digital Songs chart.

Ugh I thought I was the only one! I had it at #25 and had to decrease a lot the streams to make it look good at #37 but still not matching