When Meghan Trainor was a complete irrelevant and had less than a million views on AATB I declared that song would not only be a hit, it would go #1 for multiple weeks
Point in case I have an ear for hits. It's pretty obvious to me when someone's gonna smash or flop.
Sometimes. When I first heard Abel's Can't Feel My Face I knew it sounded like a #1 hit. Short-lived, but still accomplished. Other cases like Cheerleader being a #1 hit though I didn't expect cuz it sounded bad.
Only for hit potential. I can honestly say that most songs that are hits end up being songs I thought had hit potential. But there are others I think have hit potential and don't become hits.
I was more dead on the nose for 2011-2013, but since then, I'm not as accurate.