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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (November 1-8, 2015)
Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
I have "Stitches" for over 11.5M streams last week
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And you might be correct with that. We haven't gotten his number in ages and he always was well ahead of the next song below and well below the next song ahead. So
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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OK, so Stitches has 3,745,272 Spotify streams with one day to go. I'm expecting another 650K tomorrow, so we'll round its Spotify total to 4.4M.
Based on its YouTube stats graph (does anyone know how to get exact YT numbers?), it probably ends up with 8-9M official video views this week. Let's split the difference and use 8.5M.
The locality (my shorthand term for the % of anything that is coming from the U.S.) for Spotify seems to average 30-35% (see my graph in the Spotify thread), and we know YT is much more global but Stitches is very local so let's use the same range:
So for JUST SPOTIFY AND OFFICIAL VIDEO STREAMS:
If 20% of YT views are coming from the U.S. = 6.1M (4.4M Spotify + 1.7M official video)
25% = 6.5M (4.4M Spotify + 2.1M official video)
30% = 7.0M (4.4M Spotify + 2.5M official video)
35% = 7.4M (4.4M Spotify + 2.9M official video)
40% = 7.8M (4.4M Spotify + 3.3M official video)
I'm predicting 35% locality for Stitches for what it's worth.
Let's recall that approximately 10-20% of total ODS of each song is coming from non-Spotify services, so I'll add 0.6M to that 4.4M for 5M ODS plus the official video streaming and other streaming.
So we have 5M on-demand + 2.9M official video + 2.3M other streaming for my prediction of 10.2M.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Here's the graph I created and referenced, with Spotify data from yesterday:
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by MusicTalker
In terms of quality
Hello > Love Me Harder > Blank Space > Good for You > Wildest Dreams >Love Me Like You Do > Bad Blood (Remix) > FourFiveSeconds > Lips Are Movin
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All About That Bass and Shake It Off were both in the Top 5 early in the 2015 Chart Year too.
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Updated predictions
1. Hello 1426
2. Hotline Bling 589 (+1)
3. The Hills 467 (+1)
4. Sorry 440 (-2)
5. What Do You Mean? 383
6. Stitches 344
7. Focus 323 (debut)
8. Wildest Dreams 307 (-1)
9. 679 305 (-1)
10. Like I'm Gonna Lose You 244 (+3)
11. Here 244 (+4)
12. Locked Away 242 (-3)
13. Ex's And Oh's 239 (-1)
14. Watch Me 237 (-3)
15. Can't Feel My Face 237 (-5)
16. Jumpman 218 (-2)
17. Same Old Love 200 (+1)
18. On My Mind 194 (+1)
19. Lean On 194 (-2)
20. Renegades 186
That's so absurdly close from #10 to #15
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 30,842
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I hope LIGLY makes it.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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I'm gonna update my predictions tomorrow night.
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Member Since: 11/17/2010
Posts: 1,882
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Bieber is killing it right now. Hope Sorry drops to #3
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 491
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Most Weeks in Top 10 in 2015 So Far
28 Uptown Funk (31 overall)
25 Trap Queen
22 Thinking Out Loud (23 overall)
21 Sugar
19 See You Again & Can't Feel My Face
18 Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey) & Shut Up And Dance & Watch Me
16 Cheerleader
15 Love Me Like You Do
13 Bad Blood & The Hills
12 Take Me To Church (20 overall) & Blank Space (17 overall)
11 Good For You & 679
10 Lips Are Movin (12 overall) & Lean On & Locked Away
9 I'm Not The Only One (14 overall) & FourFiveSeconds & Style & Want To Want Me & Fight Song & What Do You Mean?
8 Hey Mama
7 Jealous (10 overall) & Shake It Off (24 overall) & G.D.F.R. & Hotline Bling
6 Wildest Dreams
5 All About That Bass (25 overall) & Stitches
4 Time Of Our Lives & Nasty Freestyle & My Way
3 Animals (14 overall) & Honey I'm Good & Where Are U Now
2 Love Me Harder (7 overall) & Centuries & Somebody
1 Lay Me Down & Drag Me Down & Photograph & Perfect & Hello & Sorry
So this makes:
52 weeks for The Weeknd
47 weeks for Taylor Swift
40 weeks for Fetty Wap
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Member Since: 2/26/2006
Posts: 62,897
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I hope Meghan goes top 10
Justice 4 Dear Future Husband
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Everything's super close for me from like #9 through #15.
I still have Ari anywhere from #7 to #5 - I'm just going to pray the streams were local and see how it goes.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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This is the time when you pray for your fave to be local
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Predictions:
1. Hello = (2:1 -- 2.5:1 margin of lead)
2. Hotline Bling +1
3. Sorry -1
4. The Hills =
5. What Do You Mean? =
6. Stitches =
7. Focus HOT SHOT DEBUT
8. 679 =
9. Wildest Dreams -2
10. Can't Feel My Face =
11. Locked Away -2
12. Like I'm Gonna Lose You +1
13. Here +2
14. Ex's & Oh's -2
15. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) -4
16. Same Old Love +2
17. Jumpman -3
18. On My Mind +1
19. Lean On -2
20. Downtown -4
26. Antidote +6
31. Tennesse Whiskey DEBUT
36. I'll Show You DEBUT
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Member Since: 11/9/2011
Posts: 5,451
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Quote:
Originally posted by simmnfierzig
Updated predictions
1. Hello 1426
2. Hotline Bling 589 (+1)
3. The Hills 467 (+1)
4. Sorry 440 (-2)
5. What Do You Mean? 383
6. Stitches 344
7. Focus 323 (debut)
8. Wildest Dreams 307 (-1)
9. 679 305 (-1)
10. Like I'm Gonna Lose You 244 (+3)
11. Here 244 (+4)
12. Locked Away 242 (-3)
13. Ex's And Oh's 239 (-1)
14. Watch Me 237 (-3)
15. Can't Feel My Face 237 (-5)
16. Jumpman 218 (-2)
17. Same Old Love 200 (+1)
18. On My Mind 194 (+1)
19. Lean On 194 (-2)
20. Renegades 186
That's so absurdly close from #10 to #15
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Won't Justin's song debut in the top 20? With 120k sales / the massive streams it could even sneak in the top 15.
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mattyboy
Won't Justin's song debut in the top 20? With 120k sales / the massive streams it could even sneak in the top 15.
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Kworb says 60k sales. I trust kworb. Have it around #25.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 43,104
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
Here's the graph I created and referenced, with Spotify data from yesterday:
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Could you tell me how local On My Mind is?
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by ClarksonSlays
Could you tell me how local On My Mind is?
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28.35% of its Spotify streams are coming from the U.S.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
Weekly Top 20 11/01/2015 - 11/07/2015
1 (=). Hello 13,897,252 (-2,037,221 from last week)
2 (+1). Sorry 8,723,977 (-539,246)
3 (-1). Hotline Bling 8,280,265 (-1,008,506)
4 (=). Jumpman 5,251,138 (-354,226)
5 (=). What Do You Mean? 5,153,242 (-165,691)
6 (=). The Hills 4,446,558 (-641,199)
7 (=). Stitches 4,336,593 (+74,215)
8 (=). Can't Feel My Face 3,920,578 (-120,662)
9 (=). 679 3,870,871 (+87,571)
10 (+1). Here 3,517,088 (+190,982)
11 (DEBUT). Focus 3,510,260
12 (=). On My Mind 3,427,417 (+172,473)
13 (-3). Same Old Love 3,377,820 (-48,961)
14 (-1). Again 3,067,578 (+59,073)
15 (=). Trap Queen 2,938,013 (-10,432)
16 (=). White Iverson 2,925,273 (+160,441)
17 (-3). Lean On 2,757,856 (-235,801)
18 (+1). Locked Away 2,722,761 (+61,562)
19 (+2). Downtown 2,679,544 (+46,006)
20 (-3). Good For You 2,479,417 (-282,443)
Total plays of the Top 20:
91,283,501 (-3,788,154 from last week)
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
YouTube Chart
Week End. November 05th, 2015
1. (=) Hello 104.5M (-29%) *2 weeks at #1*
2. (NEW) Focus 43.0M
3. (-1) Sorry (Dance Video) 33.1M (-19%)
4. (-1) What Do You Mean? 31.6M (-1%)
5. (-1) Lean On 29.9M (-2%)
6. (NEW) Hotline Bling 29.7M (+130%)
7. (-2) See You Again 26.4M (-1%)
8. (-2) Locked Away 21.7M (-6%)
9. (-2) Worth It 21.6M (0%)
10. (+1) Wildest Dreams 21.2M (+11%)
11. (-3) How Deep Is Your Love 20.9M (-1%)
12. (-2) The Hills 20.7M (+7%)
13. (-4) Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) 18.4M (-8%)
14. (-2) Uptown Funk 17.7M (-3%)
15. (-2) Hey Mama 16.6M (-7%)
16. (-2) Sugar 16.5M (-4%)
17. (-2) Thinking Out Loud 16.5M (-4%)
18. (+1) Can't Feel My Face 16.4M (+6%)
19. (-3) Blank Space 16.3M (-2%)
20. (-2) Love Me Like You Do 16.1M (+1%)
Out
17. Drag Me Down
20. Where Are Ü Now
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The data we will need for our final predictions!
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Member Since: 2/16/2010
Posts: 69,775
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Happy that Ari will get a Top 10 w/ Focus. She should take it and run: don't bother promoting the song anymore, letting it do what it does until the end of the year, and releasing a new single around New Years. She doesn't really need an AMA performance anyway.
Meghan deserves a Top 10 w/ LIGLY. True sleeper hit and she works hard.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 43,104
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
28.35% of its Spotify streams are coming from the U.S.
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Global queen!
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