Quote:
Originally posted by Butters
These polls still do favor Hillary though. People are claiming from these polls that Hillary gained 30-40+ points on Bernie, like overnight from the Jefferson Jackson Dinner. Much more young voters are going to show up for the primaries than they did for the 2014 Senate race (which they based their poll demographics on) 
I'm very interested in seeing what actually happens and how Bernie making an upset in Iowa can affect his numbers. 90~ more days  |
Actually, they're claiming it's from Biden dropping out and her testimony going well - which is accurate.
Furthermore, I read the article - I'm saying that interpreting it to mean she hasn't actually significantly expanded her lead is faulty and assumes that literally every young voter or independent who isn't represented in their statistics WILL vote for Bernie, which is not only false but a ridiculous assumption. I'm a young voter who isn't represented, for example; I am caucusing in the state of Iowa for Hillary.
Finally, I'm just going to note that the likelihood of Bernie pulling an Iowa upset decreases every passing day, and that a victory in Iowa won't affect his national performance significantly thanks to Hillary's strength in the Super Tuesday states and her hundreds of endorsements from current government officials to Bernie's 12 outside Vermont. She's got a strong firewall built.
It's true that the polls are reflective of a more optimistic figure for her than is indicated by reality, but even so the polls are statistically valid and show she is expanding her lead here in measurable ways. It's likely that she will continue to do so, in fact, with the coming debates. Even if she loses here, the only other states where she's currently close enough to Bernie for concern are New Hampshire and Vermont.
I refuse