There appear to be two or three windows—Dec. 4, 11 and possibly the 18th—and the prognosticators believe a first week of 300k could knock Adele off the top perch. Considering their respective sales histories, Beyoncé has shown she can hit or surpass the magic number, while Rihanna’s previous five releases have averaged under 200k.
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If Beyoncé’s album makes it this year, it will almost certainly crush the others, while Coldplay would outperform Rihanna.
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And although Kanye is not hot record-wise, he should still outsell Rihanna, whose forthcoming album has no vibe yet.