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Discussion: Hot 100 Metrics/Recurrency Rules/Singles Certify Discussion
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Hot 100 Metrics/Recurrency Rules/Singles Certify Discussion
To avoid taking up more space on the Chart threads to discuss which metrics making up the Hot 100 formula should matter the most, I'm creating this thread. Discussion about recurrency policies for all songs charts are also open to discussion. Also, I just added the topic about single certification, whether streams should be included toward the songs total, if the amount required for a threshold should be doubled, etc. Remember, the genre charts are based on the Hot 100, so really only recurrency policies changes would apply to them.
For Hot 100 Formula metrics, what do you think should be weighed heaviest, and what should be included? Digital downloads? Physical singles sales (all forms of physical singles combined)? Video digital downloads? Paid Streaming? Free Streaming? On Demand Streaming? Video Streaming? Ringtones/Ringback tones? Radio airplay? Data from electronic jukeboxes across the US? Data from the Dance Club Play Chart? Cable music stations? MTV/VH1/CMT/GAC/BET videos played? Satellite radio? Music streamed after downloaded? Anything else I forgot?
Here's the new thread for the Hot 100 metrics and Billboard/Mediabase Recurrency policies discussions, so feel free to speak your mind.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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I think streaming is getting too powerful, songs are now doing 8+ weeks at the top now every time.
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Member Since: 11/27/2010
Posts: 9,806
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I think streaming is what people are seeking out themselves vs radio where the music is chosen for you by MDs, PDs and others who cater to format more than to what people actually want to listen to. Streaming should be powerful. Radio should even exist as a component of the HOT 100 TBQH.
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Member Since: 5/18/2012
Posts: 20,576
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueTimberwolf
I think streaming is getting too powerful, songs are now doing 8+ weeks at the top now every time.
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Maybe it's just more accurate. It just means that song is popular and that's the only point of the chart.
And it's not bad. You wanna know what bad is? Look at the Billboard 2002 chart. Only a handful of songs went #1.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 39,572
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I think video streams and free streams should be kept different from On-Demand streams, with more weighting for the latter.
I think 'radio-streams' (ie Pandora, Apple Music Radio, Spotify Radio) should be a seperate metric.
That said, I support streaming.
The percentage should be:
-30% downloads
-20% radio
-20% on-demand streams
-15% free/video streams
-15% radio streams
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Adonis
I think streaming is what people are seeking out themselves vs radio where the music is chosen for you by MDs, PDs and others who cater to format more than to what people actually want to listen to. Streaming should be powerful. Radio should even exist as a component of the HOT 100 TBQH.
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Did you mean should NOT even exist?
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dilettante
I think video streams and free streams should be kept different from On-Demand streams, with more weighting for the latter.
I think 'radio-streams' (ie Pandora, Apple Music Radio, Spotify Radio) should be a seperate metric.
That said, I support streaming.
The percentage should be:
-30% downloads
-20% radio
-20% on-demand streams
-15% free/video streams
-15% radio streams
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What is the current breakdown now? How much is radio worth?
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 39,572
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueTimberwolf
What is the current breakdown now? How much is radio worth?
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I think it's something like this:
-40-45% sales
-30-35% radio
-20-25% streaming
With constant adjustments made every week - if they have an unusually big adjustment they tell us (for example, they've been slightly lowering streaming every few weeks, and yet it still 'counts for more' because the streaming numbers grow faster than they're downgrading the value of a stream).
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueTimberwolf
What is the current breakdown now? How much is radio worth?
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Billboard wants Sales to count for 35-40%, Airplay for 30-35%, and Streaming for 25-30%. Billboard reweighted everything back in December trying to get back here, but the Hot 100 has returned to approximately 40% streaming (all forms combined), 30% sales, and 30% radio.
Most everyone on ATRL agrees Radio is overweighted. The disagreements lie over whether sales or streaming should count more, should On Demand count more than Video streaming, and should paid streaming could more than free streaming.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 39,572
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I actually quite like radio being included, unpopular opinion.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 23,368
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free streams should be weighted less than paid streams. am i correct to assume that both are weighted equally as of posting?
Quote:
Originally posted by Dilettante
I actually quite like radio being included, unpopular opinion.
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true. it is a major factor imo. atrl be complaining bout airplay-fueled songs but thats just how it is. not every song out there is a BL-Happy-UF.
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Member Since: 11/27/2010
Posts: 9,806
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
Did you mean should NOT even exist?
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Not as part of the HOT 100 anymore. Streaming is more accurate data of what people are seeking out. Radio is what big corporate interests are trying to promote to listeners in the hopes they will like it. They can buy influence. Whereas Streaming offers a democratization of the charts if used in the charts. Radio will still have an effect on the charts as it is an influencer of consumer behavior but nothing more. That's all it should be.
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Member Since: 8/17/2012
Posts: 17,268
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Airplay needs to be included because it helps determine what songs are popular. Many people only know current music because they listen to the radio. I understand all the negative aspects of radio (namely that it isn't controlled by the public), but it's still a factor in song popularity regardless of who is controlling it. I think it should be weighed less than it is now, but it needs to be included. Whoever thinks airplay shouldn't be included at all doesn't get the point of the Hot 100. It doesn't rank songs the public likes the most - it ranks the most popular songs.
Streaming should count more than sales because streaming is rapidly growing and sales are rapidly declining. Simple as that. I don't know a single person who still buys music from the iTunes store. Everyone just finds music on YouTube or has a streaming subscription like Spotify. I also agree that on-demand streams and YouTube streams should be separated, with on-demand weighing more. On-demand is a better way of measuring the popularity of an actual song, whereas video streaming can be influenced by factors unrelated to the song itself (such as the video itself being controversial).
Based on all this, my ideal Hot 100 would be:
-45% Streaming (25% On-Demand + 20% Video)
-30% Sales
-25% Airplay
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Member Since: 11/27/2010
Posts: 9,806
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Quote:
Originally posted by shelven
Airplay needs to be included because it helps determine what songs are popular. Many people only know current music because they listen to the radio. I understand all the negative aspects of radio (namely that it isn't controlled by the public), but it's still a factor in song popularity regardless of who is controlling it. I think it should be weighed less than it is now, but it needs to be included. Whoever thinks airplay shouldn't be included at all doesn't get the point of the Hot 100. It doesn't rank songs the public likes the most - it ranks the most popular songs.
Streaming should count more than sales because streaming is rapidly growing and sales are rapidly declining. Simple as that. I don't know a single person who still buys music from the iTunes store. Everyone just finds music on YouTube or has a streaming subscription like Spotify. I also agree that on-demand streams and YouTube streams should be separated, with on-demand weighing more. On-demand is a better way of measuring the popularity of an actual song, whereas video streaming can be influenced by factors unrelated to the song itself (such as the video itself being controversial).
Based on all this, my ideal Hot 100 would be:
-45% Streaming (25% On-Demand + 20% Video)
-30% Sales
-25% Airplay
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Airplay already has indirect chart influence without being part of the chart. It's just like TV. It influences popularity but should not be included in the actual chart. Like TV, Radio airplay is bought and paid for programming by large corporate interests. They evaluate the numbers to see what they think people will like before putting someone on their TV/Radio program. Radio is no different than TV in that way. It's also subject to catering to a format just like TV. This is why it should't be included. When billboard got rid of the format specific charts they should've taken the radio component with them.
My ideal HOT 100 breakdown would be
40% On-Demand
20% Free Streaming
40% Sales
with Airplay included I would say
35% On-Demand
20% Free Streaming
10% Airplay
35% Sales
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Member Since: 8/17/2012
Posts: 17,268
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Quote:
Originally posted by Adonis
Airplay already has indirect chart influence without being part of the chart. It's just like TV. It influences popularity but should not be included in the actual chart. Like TV, Radio airplay is bought and paid for programming by large corporate interests. They evaluate the numbers to see what they think people will like before putting someone on their TV/Radio program. Radio is no different than TV in that way. It's also subject to catering to a format just like TV. This is why it should't be included. When billboard got rid of the format specific charts they should've taken the radio component with them.
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The big difference between radio and TV is that the entire point of radio is to play music - that's not the point of TV (with the exception of a very small number of channels/shows that play music videos). If people want to listen to music, they'll turn on their radio, not their TV.
Think of it this way - my parents both listen to Top 40 radio stations in their cars, but neither of them buy music and very rarely play music on YouTube. But they know almost all of the current hit songs because they hear that on the radio. Their knowledge of those songs should count towards the Hot 100. By excluding airplay entirely, you're equating them to somebody who doesn't listen to music at all, which isn't fair nor accurate. There needs to be a metric for people who hear music but don't actively buy/stream it, and radio fits that way more than something like TV does.
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Member Since: 10/11/2004
Posts: 28,320
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Quote:
Originally posted by shelven
Airplay needs to be included because it helps determine what songs are popular. Many people only know current music because they listen to the radio. I understand all the negative aspects of radio (namely that it isn't controlled by the public), but it's still a factor in song popularity regardless of who is controlling it. I think it should be weighed less than it is now, but it needs to be included. Whoever thinks airplay shouldn't be included at all doesn't get the point of the Hot 100. It doesn't rank songs the public likes the most - it ranks the most popular songs.
Streaming should count more than sales because streaming is rapidly growing and sales are rapidly declining. Simple as that. I don't know a single person who still buys music from the iTunes store. Everyone just finds music on YouTube or has a streaming subscription like Spotify. I also agree that on-demand streams and YouTube streams should be separated, with on-demand weighing more. On-demand is a better way of measuring the popularity of an actual song, whereas video streaming can be influenced by factors unrelated to the song itself (such as the video itself being controversial).
Based on all this, my ideal Hot 100 would be:
-45% Streaming (25% On-Demand + 20% Video)
-30% Sales
-25% Airplay
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The only thing about video streams that shouldn't be counted is unofficial videos. It's just ridiculous how that Soko song made the top 10, yet "Let Her Go" got screwed because that ad wasn't tagged under the Music category.
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Member Since: 8/17/2012
Posts: 17,268
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Quote:
Originally posted by Luis
The only thing about video streams that shouldn't be counted is unofficial videos. It's just ridiculous how that Soko song made the top 10, yet "Let Her Go" got screwed because that ad wasn't tagged under the Music category.
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The Soko situation was such a mess. Not a single person who watched that video would have even been able to name the song 
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Paid sales counting the same as radio is absolutely ridiculous
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Member Since: 11/27/2010
Posts: 9,806
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Quote:
Originally posted by shelven
The big difference between radio and TV is that the entire point of radio is to play music - that's not the point of TV (with the exception of a very small number of channels/shows that play music videos). If people want to listen to music, they'll turn on their radio, not their TV.
Think of it this way - my parents both listen to Top 40 radio stations in their cars, but neither of them buy music and very rarely play music on YouTube. But they know almost all of the current hit songs because they hear that on the radio. Their knowledge of those songs should count towards the Hot 100. By excluding airplay entirely, you're equating them to somebody who doesn't listen to music at all, which isn't fair nor accurate. There needs to be a metric for people who hear music but don't actively buy/stream it, and radio fits that way more than something like TV does.
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Radio sure does alot of talking for a medium whos sole purpose is to play music. Also they play to a format rather than what people like. I would like to add the fact that audience numbers are skewed too high as well.
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