Poll: Poll: How Will The Supreme Court Vote On Gay Marriage?

LuLuDrops

So the Supreme Court will decide on gay marriage in about a month. They asked two questions: if gays have a right to marriage which would affect marriage licenses, while also asking if states are required to recognize out-of-state marriages.

If they say yes to the first question the second is moot. If they say yes to only the second all states will have to recognize the licenses, but they will basically punt to the lower courts if couples want to marry inside the state.

They could also say No to both

Personally, I believe they will take care of it this term because with social issues they want to just get done with it and if they punt the issue it will only return to them because couples won't stop suing.

So dish your thoughts below and let's see who got it right

KillingYourCareer

They will legalize it all and many other countries will follow the example.

Espresso

I'm getting superstitious and don't want bad karma so I'm changing my cynical prediction from the last thread.

A 5-4 decision in agreement to Question 1 with Kennedy being the deciding vote*.
*A 5-4 decision punting on Q1 and Yes on Q2 wouldn't shock me.

- Roberts own lesbian relative in the courtroom didn't sway him back in 2013 so it certainly won't now.

- Safely assuming the women and Breyer will be in favor

- All the analysis on what 'legacy' the judges want to leave is overblown: Roberts' and even some of Kennedy's hesitations will come from the uncharted territory aspect in not knowing much about opening up this institution from historical precedent. IMO, that argument's not valid, but I think that will be the jist of Robert's opposition.

- Scalia's decision against will come from bigotry disguised as pseudo-theocracy and the legal equivalent of a doormat, never-says-anything-of-his-own-convictions Thomas will follow right behind.

- Alito's decision will come from bigotry barely disguised as pseudo-theocracy using a lot of the slippery slope fallacy to raise the disingenuous doomsday specters of incest and pedophilia.

- The momentum with Ireland's decision will play a big role in this.

LuLuDrops

Quote:

Originally posted by KillingYourCareer

They will legalize it all and many other countries will follow the example.

Australia please

avi

legalise it all hopefully

HUYPHAN

it would take decades for us gays in asia

devotedtokesha

Quote:

Originally posted by HUYPHAN

it would take decades for us gays in asia

or never.

NewRihannaStan

Hopefully we can all get married

LuLuDrops

Quote:

Originally posted by HUYPHAN

it would take decades for us gays in asia

Keep your eyes on Taiwan in the next few years

Espresso

Bump

Qwerty1234

I think they'll legalize it, 5-4 with Kennedy joining the more liberal judges. I can't pocture anything other than that happening.

RickyH.

The first option.. I hope

Chucko

I doubt they will say no to both. My feeling is they will say this is a state issue and punt it to the courts. It won't matter if people keep suing they won't take it up again after they already ruled on it.

They could also just clear the table of this issue so it's not going to impact the 2016 elections and get it over with. This is what I'm hoping Kennedy will do. Then he can vote against Obamacare.

alexanderao

I think it will probably be yes to the second, no to the first.

Achilles.

I'm so nervous I can't think about it

Eric.

Judging from the oral arguments, I'd say they would only say yes to the second question.

The Tennessee lawyer couldn't even explain why a marriage license was not covered under the Full Faith and Credit Clause and became a mess when Breyer asked him if another state can refuse to recognize a marriage from another state regardless of the couple. Also, being left out of your own husband's death certificate it's a pretty ****** thing to do to someone.

I haven't been very optimistic about Mary's performance that day. The greatest thing she said is that this wasn't about the courts or the states, but about the individual choosing to marry and with whom and if the government was going to make that choice for them. Other than she didn't bring as much to the table as I thought she would.

LuLuDrops

Quote:

Originally posted by Eric.

Judging from the oral arguments, I'd say they would only say yes to the second question.

The Tennessee lawyer couldn't even explain why a marriage license was not covered under the Full Faith and Credit Clause and became a mess when Breyer asked him if another state can refuse to recognize a marriage from another state regardless of the couple. Also, being left out of your own husband's death certificate it's a pretty ****** thing to do to someone.

I haven't been very optimistic about Mary's performance that day. The greatest thing she said is that this wasn't about the courts or the states, but about the individual choosing to marry and with whom and if the government was going to make that choice for them. Other than she didn't bring as much to the table as I thought she would.

Yeah, things got the better of Mary. Let's just hope the Supremes don't let that affect them and channel the DOMA arguments + the good points presented for this year.

Mariah4life

yes for everything. :zsnap

Buddy

Quote:

Originally posted by HUYPHAN

it would take decades for us gays in asia

Ya gaysian persuasion will work one day sis, just give it time

Caesar

Hopefully yes