At this point, I think See You Again will be another double-digit week #1. If there is a song on the chart right now that has chance to get to #1, it is Want To Want Me (which I think will ultimately peak at #2 or #3).

Earned It will reach its #2 peak the following week (after Upton Funk spends one final week in the Top 2).

Can "Girl Crush" go top 10 on the Hot 100?

I think "Girl Crush" will reach the Top 20 this coming week, maybe close to the Top 15. I have it projected at #16. Right now, its streaming is still awful low for all of the promotion it's been getting. That's disappointed me all week, as those of me who see me post in the streaming column have seen me keep asking if GC has debuted on Spotify's Top 100 yet (it is available).

I feel sure Hot AC, AC, and possibly Top 40 are looking at the song due to its impressive download numbers. Unlike "Burning It Down" or "Dirt", the song has risen to these numbers due to media attention, and they may want to be a part of that. I can see a crossover hit here. However, until GC at least gets good streaming going, and gets higher up on airplay, I'm not certain if it can get beyond #15 to 20 (unless it shocks everyone and sells 250,000 one week).

I know "Need You Now" zoomed from 20-2 on HDS and 22-5 on the Hot 100 right after the 2009 CMA's, but it had downloads of nearly 200,000; even though it had no crossover airplay (yet) it was in the middle of a legendary run at Country; and Streaming was a very minimal factor (Billboard hadn't even made a chart for the little data it took from AOL and Yahoo). So there are differences between NYN and GC.

I was thinking "Shut Up And Dance" might challenge SYA down the road if the latter song begins to fade. But SUAD is already rather old, having been out at Alternative for months. Even though the song's just now getting mainstream attention, the length of time it's been out (like with songs such as "Need You Now") can work against it when trying to make a run for the top.

I see SYA with 7 to 8 weeks right now, but I'll increase that if I see fit down the road. I was the last person to go beyond 12 weeks for UF, and that was after the song got its 12th week, so I try not too get too far out ahead, no matter how big the song seems.

December was an exaggeration, but most of these songs have been in the top ten for like 3 months.

I hope Earned It becomes the runner up this week? Any chances?!?

Which sorta makes the predictions about EI dethroning UF! correct if SYA had not been released. Nobody could've predicted Hurricane Walker doing this much damage.

I don't think WTWM will do it unless something goes really viral. SUAD could probably sneak a week in after a performance on The Voice on May when its airplay and streaming are about at its peak, but at this point SYA has really exceeded expectations with its longevity at the top.

It is kinda rare for Alt-to-pop crossover to hit #1, but Royals did it in 2013. There have been so many that have stopped short of the #1, such as Radioactive, Some Nights, Hey, Soul Sister, Use Somebody, and I'm sure there are others that I am not thinking of.

I think it's doable. It just depends on how much of a sales push it can get.

Here is every song that has spent at least 26 weeks/six months in the Top 10:

1) "How Do I Live" -- LeAnn Rimes, 32 weeks, 1997-8
2) "Smooth" -- Santana/Rob Thomas, 30 weeks 1999-2000
3) "Party Rock Anthem" -- LMFAO, 29 weeks 2011-2
4) "Foolish Games/You Were Meant For Me" -- Jewel, 28 weeks 1997-8
5) "Truly Madly Deeply" -- Savage Garden, 26 weeks 1997-8

Three of the songs were from the same period because that was when so many songs were airplay-only tracks and Billboard only allowed songs with a commercially available physical single to chart on the Hot 100 until December 1998.

It's sales are good now, but SUAD could easily be another song where the three metrics don't all peak at the same time. And by the time it gets performed on the Voice and its streaming and airplay are surging, it sales may already be sinking. That happens to a lot of songs, and I think "Radioactive" would've at least reached #2 if everything had peaked just right. That song's strongest sales preceded its biggest airplay and streaming numbers by 6-8 weeks. It couldn't have gotten by "Blurred Lines" though, even though "Radioactive" has now outsold BL by around 300,000 downloads (and spent twice as long on the Hot 100).

"Earned It" moved up big this past week because of a streaming boost after its "Coachella" performance. This one's tricky. Those streams could go right back down, stay steady, or continue to grow. I took the middle road and said stay steady, and kept EI at #3 on my predictions for next week, with UF staying at #2 and TQ staying at #4. The week after that EI might get to #2. UF then may be at #3 or #4, depending on TQ and SUAD. WTWM will work toward the Top 5, but I'm not seeing at as a threat to the top right now. SYA seems pretty safe unless SUAD or EI get really lucky.

Thanks if without SYA..its either Uptown Funk wil break Mimi record or EI will take over..

I see Mariah is about to release a new song. I hope "Infiity's" success resembles "We Belong Together," since that's my favorite song by her. There hasn't been a chart year since 1996 with two 14- week #1s, so if Mariah could come in with a 14 week #1 of her own after the disappointment in 2013, it could really get things going. I really hope this new single is a smash for her. Her song with Miguel should have been a much bigger hit.

Will Somebody reach a new peak ?

Wait, what is my avi doing here?
Slay!

I projected "Somebody" to move up to #9 on this coming week's chart since GDFR is falling, but "Somebody" lost airplay today. Since the song isn't strong on sales or streaming, it may not get any further if it has in fact peaked at airplay. Maybe it will increase tomorrow. People will be watching "One More Time" tomorrow too for the same reason.

Not big enough, Top 20 as best, it lacks Streaming

"Royals" benefitted from having an Urban/Hip-Hop drum and bass line too, which got it to #1 for 1 day on the Mediabase Urban Chart.

Yeah, and I wish I knew why a song like Girl Crush with such strong sales was struggling so badly at streaming.

Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:

1. See You Again = 50% Sales + 7% Airplay + 43% Streaming
2. Uptown Funk = 27% Sales + 33% Airplay + 40% Streaming
3. Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey) = 27% Sales + 38% Airplay + 35% Streaming
4. Sugar = 28% Sales + 39% Airplay + 33% Streaming
5. Trap Queen = 29% Sales + 15% Airplay + 56% Streaming
6. Love Me Like You Do = 25% Sales + 45% Airplay + 30% Streaming
7. Thinking Out Loud = 25% Sales + 35% Airplay + 40% Streaming
8. Shut Up And Dance = 49% Sales + 29% Airplay + 22% Streaming
9. GDFR = 37% Sales + 27% Airplay + 36% Streaming
10. Somebody = 25% Sales + 46% Airplay + 29% Streaming

11. Want To Want Me = 41% Sales + 34% Airplay + 25% Streaming
12. Style = 22% Sales + 59% Airplay + 19% Streaming
13. One Last Time = 23% Sales + 46% Airplay + 31% Streaming
14. Chains = 45% Sales + 29% Airplay + 26% Streaming
15. Post To Be = 19% Sales + 22% Airplay + 59% Streaming
16. FourFiveSeconds = 34% Sales + 22% Airplay + 44% Streaming
17. Bitch Better Have My Money = 34% Sales + 17% Airplay + 49% Streaming
18. Talking Body = 40% Sales + 25% Airplay + 35% Streaming
19. Lay Me Down = 36% Sales + 25% Airplay + 39% Streaming
20. Time Of Our Lives = 25% Sales + 41% Airplay + 34% Streaming

So for the Top 20 this week = 32% Sales + 32% Airplay + 36% Streaming

Streaming > Sales > Airplay