The Academy Award for best picture will probably go to “Boyhood,” about a young Texan growing up, or “Birdman (Or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” which tells the story of Michael Keaton struggling to put on a play. We know this thanks to last weekend’s Directors Guild of America Awards and BAFTAs. “Birdman” took the top DGA award, for best director. “Boyhood” took the BAFTA for best film.
The DGAs and BAFTAs are two of the four award shows most highly correlated with the best picture Oscar. (The winner of best director at the DGAs has often won the best picture Oscar, as has the best film BAFTA winner). They’re both “insider” award shows; the people voting on winners are the same (general group of) people voting on the Academy Awards. (“Birdman” won top honors at the other two, the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild awards.)
The DGA has the best prediction rate in the past 25 years: 76 percent of films that won that award for best director went on to win best picture at the Oscars.
I’ve updated the scores derived from my colleague Nate Silver’s model. Here’s how things look:
Last weekend’s plaudits for “Birdman” and “Boyhood” essentially pushed the two films further in front of the pack. Factoring in those awards, “Birdman” has a score of 3.27, and “Boyhood” has a score of 2.47.
Is it possible for another film to win best picture at the Oscars? Definitely. Sometimes there’s a backlash against the favorites. There are also dedicated campaigns to woo voters, and we don’t have data on how these campaigns influence Academy members. And there’s a history of big upsets at the Oscars. “Crash” in 2005 and “Braveheart” in 1995, for example, won best picture with zero consensus from the other awards.
Looking at the scores, there’s an argument to be made that this year is one of the most competitive in recent memory, and I plan to check that out soon. But either way, the stats and the conversation around the early awards point to this being a race that’s probably between only two horses.
I will be really pressed if Birdman runs over Boyhood. I thought Boyhood captured the spirit of affected lives after separation which echoes to the kids primarily.I personally relate to that but whatever, it's out of my hands.
They are both great movies, I'd be fine if either won. Birdman just doesn't seem like a Best Picture winner tbh, and if it won BP but Michael Keaton lost Best Actor, that'd be just strange.
Birdman > Boyhood. The latter is great for it's method of shooting but overall it's not that great whereas Birdman was such an spectacular experience. Although I don't really care who wins eventually.
I've been rooting for Boyhood for months now but honestly either win would be justified and probably a better winner than the past few years so it's not a tragic loss anyway.
From all of the nominees that I've seen, Boyhood is definitely the most plain and simple. Sure they have to reward Linklater for his achievement, I mean, he did cinema history, but overall the movie doesn't deserve it.
