Will 'Ninja Turtles' Take Down 'Guardians' This Weekend?
Playing at 2,651 locations, "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" earned $4.6 million from late Thursday shows. Among Summer 2014 releases, that's ahead of "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" ($4.1 million,) "Maleficent" ($4 million,) and "Lucy" ($2.8 million.)
While those aren't all apples-to-apples comparisons—"Apes" opened at 10 p.m., while "Turtles" started at 7 p.m.—it still suggests that the movie will have no problem earning over $40 million this weekend.
Opening at 3,845 theaters,
"Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" could wind up higher than "Guardians." Paramount is expecting mid-to-high $40-millions, while Fandango is reporting that the movie is out-selling both "G.I. Joe" movies (the last one, "Retaliation," earned $51 million in its first four days.)
While the "Turtles" did appear in animated form on the big-screen a few years ago,
this is the first "live-action" version of the characters since 1993's "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III." The movie is produced by Michael Bay, who has guided similar Paramount franchise "Transformers" to astonishing levels at the box office. Reinforcing the "Transformers" connection, "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" features Megan Fox as the Turtles' reporter friend April O'Neil.
While Bay and the "Transformers" franchise has plenty of fans, that factor is secondary to the power of the Turtles brand itself.
Many who grew up in the 80s and 90s have fond memories of the original movies and TV shows, and will almost certainly be curious about this latest big-screen version. Meanwhile, present-day children have connected with the brand as well: Nickelodeon, a producer on the movie, has an immensely popular animated Turtles show on the air right now.
A strong brand and an aggressive marketing effort can only get the movie so far, though. The franchise-low domestic numbers for the latest "Transformers" movie suggest that the Bay connection isn't as much of a draw as it once was. "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" also looks like it fits in to that weird gray area where it's too silly for older moviegoers and too violent for youngsters (it's the first Turtles movie to get a PG-13 rating.) Add in horrible reviews—around 11 percent on Rotten Tomatoes—and moviegoers who are on the fence may opt to skip this.
Of course, the big play here is international, where producer Michael Bay's brand holds more sway. The movie opens in 17 markets, including Russia and Mexico, this weekend;
ultimately, it would be shocking if this earned less than $200 million overseas.
Forecast (August 8-10)
1.
"Guardians of the Galaxy" - $43.5 million
($179.1 million)
2.
"Ninja Turtles" - $42 million
(NEW)
3.
"Into the Storm" - $14 million
(NEW)
4.
"Lucy" - $10 million
($98.2 million)
5.
"Step Up All In" - $10 million
(NEW)
6.
"Hundred-Foot Journey" - $9.5 million
(NEW)
Lucy.
