Well, this is a very debatable thread, but the aim is to stop with all the fights between fans and the others about this subject, in most, I think that this formula is interesting.
So, looking at what can be a good formula to determine which albums are flops, 3 things appear to be necessarly in the equation :
- A/ Sales of the previous album from the artist
Of course if 2 acts sell 1 million albums, but the first was coming from a 500k selling album and the second from a 10m selling album, this is not the same thing.
- B/ Standards (average sales per album) of the artist
If an artist sold an average of 10m copies of his albums, then a new album sold 2m only and the following 1.5m, even if it is close to 2m this is obviously not a smash for this artist.
Note : Count only albums post-breakthrought. If an artist sold 100k of 5 albums before to start selling millions with each, the first 5 do not count into the average.
- C/ Standards of the market
If tomorrow an artist sell 30m and then 10m, in today standards 10m can't be labelled as a flop even if the previous one sold much more.
So, we will give the same weigh at each of those three points, attribuating points for each one. How to calculate points ? This is easy, the number of points is the % of each category added. For example, if an album sold 4m worldwide while the previous sold 10m, it will get 40 points from the category A because 4m is 40% of 10m.
The number of points will say us if the album is a flop or not :
- Over 150 points : it is not a flop.
- From 120 to 150 points : not a flop but at least a disappointment.
- From 90 to 120 points : a flop
- From 60 to 90 points : quite a big flop
- Under 60 points : an hardcore flop
An example :
Norah Jones - Not Too Late
- Come Away With Me sold 23m
- Feels Like Home sold 10m
- Not Too Late sold 4m
(figures rounded to make the example easier to understand)
Category A : 4m and the previous 10m, 40 points (4m is 40% of 10m).
Category B : She sold an average of 16.5m per album before the release of this one, so 24 points (4m is 24% of 16.5m).
Category C : Biggest sellers of 2007 will end with about 6m, so this is 66 points (4m is 2/3 of 6m).
Total : 40 + 24 + 66 = 130 points == Not a flop but it is almost one.
Note : The album has many points from the last category, which means that even if in regards to the artist standards it is disappointing the album sold to much to be a flop, which is perfectly the case of Not To Late.
Now you can play with your fave artists to know which albums flopped or not
EDIT : Some 'flop' albums :
Michael Jackson - Invincible : 115 points
Celine Dion - One Heart : 100 points
Robbie Williams - Rudebox : 100 points
Madonna - America Life : 90 points
Tracy Chapman - Crossroads : 90 points
Janet Jackson - 20 Y.O. : 88 points
Guns N' Roses - The Spaghetti Incident : 80 points
Janet Jackson - Damita Jo : 74 points
Fleetwood Mac - Tusk : 70 points
Mariah Carey - Glitter : 65 points
Kelly Clarkson - My December : 60 points
Whitney Houston - Just Whitney : 45 points
I love Mimi dearly but c'mon that is one 'BAD' album!
! How many countries was that album number one in??