Chart News: Billboard Hot 100 formula revealed

cheers09

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Jack Adams @jackzakalump

@gthot20 How does the Hot 100's point system work?

Hi Jack,

With Miley Cyrus at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with "Wrecking Ball," a song with some of the greatest buzz for a video in quite a while, it seems like a good time for a refresher on how the Hot 100 is tabulated, doesn't it?

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As we wrote in January when YouTube data was added to the Hot 100's equation: "Generally speaking, our Hot 100 formula targets a ratio of sales (35-45%), airplay (30-40%) and streaming (20-30%)."

Of course, that's an overall target for 100 songs each week. That mark can change week-to-week. This week, though, the Hot 100 breaks down in line with the formula's intent: sales, 39%; airplay, 34%; and, streaming, 27%.

And, week-to-week, some songs show largely along those percentages, while others skew noticeably toward any of the chart's three metrics.

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Let's look at a few, starting with "Wrecking Ball."

This week, points for the Hot 100's leader stem 50% from streaming, 43% from sales and just 7% from radio airplay. No surprise: the song drew a whopping 14.3 million U.S. streams in the chart's tracking week, according to Nielsen BDS. (The No. 2-streamed song, Katy Perry's "Roar," garnered 7.3 million.) "Ball" ranks at No. 3 on Digital Songs with 301,000 downloads sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan. Conversely, as airplay for "Ball" is just beginning, its low Hot 100 points percentage reflects its No. 31 spot on Radio Songs (via 38 million all-format audience impressions, according to BDS).

Last week, which reflected the first week of streaming following the song's video premiere, the Hot 100 ratio for "Ball" was even more streaming-driven: 64%, streaming; 34%, sales; 2%, airplay. The cut's monster 36.5 million U.S. streams in the chart's tracking period produced the high percentage.

Perry's new digital single "Dark Horse," featuring Juicy J, meanwhile, has been released as a teaser track from her album "Prism," due Oct. 22. It's not being promoted to radio and has no official videoclip. Thus, as it debuts on the Hot 100 at No. 17, an almost monopolizing 99% of its points are from sales; it sold 194,000 downloads in its opening week, good for a No. 4 start on the Digital Songs chart.

The more established "Roar" (No. 2 on the Hot 100), which has been promoted to radio for close to two months and has been accepted at mainstream and adult top 40 and adult contemporary, lines up much closer to the Hot 100's average ratio: 43%, sales; 31%, airplay; 26%, streaming. It's No. 1 on Radio Songs (159 million) and No. 2 on Digital Songs (301,000) and Streaming Songs (7.3 million).

Another hit, like Cyrus', due mostly to streaming, and even more so? Ylvis' novelty track "The Fox," which makes tracks running 25-13 as the Hot 100's top Streaming Gainer this week. With it at No. 3 on Streaming Songs (7.1 million), 75% of its Hot 100 points are from streams. Almost the rest of its sum is from sales; it debuts at No. 22 on Digital Songs with 60,000 in its first week. The song sports almost no airplay, although that could change now that Warner Bros. has begun promoting it to pop radio.

And, a song driven largely by airplay? Maroon 5's "Love Somebody," at No. 26 after peaking at No. 10, shows 67% of its points thanks to radio, with 19% from sales and 13% from streaming. As a fourth single from an album that's been available for a year, it's logical that sales and streaming lag behind the song's activity at radio, with the band a consistent presence at pop and adult formats long after the buzz of an album release. It ranks at No. 11 on Radio Songs and No. 59 on Digital Songs (while ranking just inside the 100 most streamed songs of the week).

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WillingtonHH

so they increase the streaming % to 27 to benefit WB??

Hector

Airplay still counts too much. Give more power to the people.

KillingYourCareer

I think they should do sales 50, airplay 40 and streaming 10.

Ramos

The % are different from song to song. This is a point-based chart, not a % based chart.

Ady.

We knew this since February https://twitter.com/bwerde/status/304461728404615168

Tsuko

They haven't really revealed the formula. That's just the percentages for the overall chart on an average week. On the Christmas weeks the percentages would be different since sales are really high.

It varies from song to song as well. For example Love Somebody by Maroon 5's points are mostly airplay, UOENO by Rocko's points are mostly streams, Dark Horse by Katy Perry's points are mostly sales.

Canonical Ensemble

Yeah. They didn't reveal the formula.

They were just trying to justify that their current formula works "well".

DivaDown

Like I've said... sales weigh more.

What confuses me is, they basically control who's #1. They point out it changes each week... and the gaps are pretty big for what it could be. I mean, 10% gaps between each?

GaGaFan

Wait I don't understand--how can they make chart metrics variable? How can they simply change the amount attributed to one of the three categories each week

Canonical Ensemble

Quote:

Originally posted by GaGaFan

Wait I don't understand--how can they make chart metrics variable? How can they simply change the amount attributed to one of the three categories each week

The multiplier (statistical weight) on the raw data (sales, AI, streaming counts) are fixed and undisclosed (but not hard for us chart geeks to back-estimate it).

BB Point = sales point + radio point + streaming point = (A x sales) + (B x AI) + (C x stream count)

A, B and C are fixed weights. Raw data of sales, AI and streams vary, as we all know.

Therefore, the point ratios vary week by week, and song by song. However, they are used as the indicator of how well the "multiplier" works, by setting up arbitrary desired ranges of point ratios. If the overall point ratio of that week is still within the range or not far off, then A, B and C will remain fixed. But if it starts to go off frequently, Billboard will then consider adjusting A, B and C.

Just explained from my understanding, though.

Callum

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As we wrote in January when YouTube data was added to the Hot 100's equation

This isn't news. All they're doing here is breaking down the percentage distribution for this week's #1 song.

Tekken_Guy

What was Gangnam Style's ratio?

Ger-55

I'm gonna still use my formula, nothing new anyway

Kayzan

EDIT: Wait, they controling who is number #1 using that formula.

pieuxvu

It's not hard to know the formula.
For example:
Last week, for Wrecking ball :
36.5M streams ( = 64% of its total points)
477k sales ( = 34% of its total points)
-> 36.5M streams = 64/34*477k sales = 897.88k sales
-> 1M streams = 897.88/36.5 = 24.6k sales
This week, for Wrecking ball:
14.3M streams ( = 50% of its total points)
301k sales ( = 43% of its total points)
-> 14.3M streams = 50/43*301k sales = 350k sales
-> 1M steams = 350/14.3 = 24.5k sales

This week, for Roar:
7.3M streams ( = 26% of its total points)
301k sales ( = 43% of its total points)
-> 7.3M streams = 26/43*301k sales = 182k sales
-> 1M steams = 182/7.3 = 24.9k sales

The ratio changes because I used approximate numbers,so I guess
1M streams = 25k sales
is the exact ratio.

And for the airplay ratio:
This week, for Wrecking ball:
38M AI ( = 7% of its total points)
301k sales ( = 43% of its total points)
-> 38M AI = 7/43*301k sales = 49k sales
-> 1M AI = 49/38 = 1.29k sales
This week, for Roar:
159M AI ( = 31% of its total points)
301k sales ( = 43% of its total points)
-> 159M AI = 31/43*301k sales = 217k sales
-> 1M AI = 217/159 = 1.36k sales
I guess the exact ratio is: 1M AI = 1.33k sales

Wrecking ball:
Last week:
36.5*25 (streams) + 20*1.33 (AI) + 477 = 1416.1
This week:
14.3*25 (streams) + 38*1.33 (AI) + 301 = 709.04
It deflates by 50% in overall Hot 100 chart points.

Roar
7.3*25 (streams) + 159*1.33 (AI) + 301 = 694.97

(709.04 - 694.97)/709.04 = 0.0198 = 1.98%
Billboard said that the difference between 2 songs is about 2%, so I think this formula is right.

Source

Sorry, I'm not good at english.

TrashyNavy

wow people on atrl are dumb... They aren't rigging the chart at all. Its more accurate now than it has been in a long time

mowino

intersting. So Roars got number 1 this week?

Tekken_Guy

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Originally posted by mowino

intersting. So Roars got number 1 this week?

Well, it's certainly gonna be ahead of "Wrecking Ball", but it looks like "Royals" could take #1.

sGabe4

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Originally posted by Tekken_Guy

Well, it's certainly gonna be ahead of "Wrecking Ball", but it looks like "Royals" could take #1.

Roar is too fa ahead on Airplay even though Royals have been doing a lot of catching up
also their sales will be close (with Royals winning) and the streaming will go to Katy due to her having a video+lyric video out on top on her usual slayage on Spotify
so I think Roar's got this
next week though, it's time for Royals to take over for a couple of weeks