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Discussion: Roar's 550,000 sales won't be enough for Hot 100 #1
Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Roar's 550,000 sales won't be enough for Hot 100 #1
Quote:
Originally posted by umichgrad07
Using the Billboard formula (airplay/7500 + sales/12 + streaming/450):
BLURRED LINES --
Airplay: 225,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 300,000 downloads
Streaming: 7,000,000 plays
Total Points = 70,555
ROAR --
Airplay: ~40,000,000-50,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 525,000-550,000 downloads
Streaming: ~2,000,000-5,000,000 plays
Total Points: 53,527 - 63,611
APPLAUSE --
Airplay: ~20,000,000-25,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 200,000-225,000 downloads
Streaming: ~2,000,000-5,000,000 plays
Total Points: 23,777 - 33,194
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Gaga should go top ten. The only major wildcard for both Roar and Applause is their streaming. It's kinda hard to pinpoint that seeing this is the first time that both artists have released during the new rules. We really don't know how much of their lyric/audio video views will be from the US.
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Negative for Roar:
rolling effect on the radio deal (modern payola)
Poor Streaming: 13,172,741 views for the lyrics video. For comparison, One Direction Best Song Ever got 40,000,000+ views in the first week worldwide. Its USA streaming was around 7 million IIRC.
In a normal week, Roar would easily be #1. But Blurred Lines is just way too strong on RADIO and decently strong on STREAMING.
fyi:
The ratio between sales / radio / streaming for the #1 song was as followed 2 weeks ago:
Blurred Lines 405,000 (from sales) + 356,000 (from radio) + 218,000 (from streams)= 979,000 points
Sales: 41.3%
Radio: 36.4%
Streaming: 22.3%
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Member Since: 10/3/2010
Posts: 50,276
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Well I'm sure they will both do very well.
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 773
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Ugh and here I was hoping Blurred Lines would finally be dethroned.
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Member Since: 6/2/2011
Posts: 28,055
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Quote:
Poor Streaming: 13,172,741 views for the lyrics video. For comparison, One Direction Best Song Ever got 40,000,000+ views in the first week.
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Katy only has poor streaming if you compare her LYRIC video to 1D's OFFICIAL, full-length MUSIC VIDEO
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,010
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With the airplay Blurred Lines gets I'd be extremely surprised if either Roar or Applause go to #1, ever.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 1,027
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She will be #1 in one of the following weeks anyway...
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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p.s. Here's where the 550,000 prediction comes from:
http://www.billboard.com/articles/ne...-in-first-week
Quote:
Industry sources now suggest that her new single "Roar" could debut with 525,000 to 550,000 downloads sold by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Aug. 18. Three days ago, the forecast for "Roar" was at 450,000; and six days ago: 400,000.
"Roar" will easily give Perry the biggest sales week of the year for a song, and likely her largest sales week. At the present, her largest week was earned by "Firework," which sold 509,000 downloads in the week after Christmas in 2010.
Meanwhile, the sales projection for fellow diva Lady Gaga's new song "Applause" is static: It should sell around 200,000 to 225,000 downloads. That was the forecast for the song three days ago as well.
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Member Since: 4/7/2012
Posts: 2,040
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Member Since: 12/26/2011
Posts: 14,707
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This needed its own thread.
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Member Since: 12/31/2010
Posts: 26,257
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Ugh, Blurred Lines needs to die now. It's starting to get a bit annoying.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 7,981
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Wait so is this blurred lines eleventh week at number one NNNNNOOOO
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Member Since: 8/2/2008
Posts: 22,610
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Yasss Robin
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Member Since: 3/15/2011
Posts: 12,111
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I thought it was already obvious that it was going to take a lot more than a huge first week of sales to dethrone Blurred Lines with it's current airplay lead.
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Member Since: 6/25/2010
Posts: 18,931
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Quote:
Originally posted by GreasyBruce
Katy only has poor streaming if you compare her LYRIC video to 1D's OFFICIAL, full-length MUSIC VIDEO
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Member Since: 4/26/2012
Posts: 33,881
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Robin shutting it down.
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 25,077
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poor katy, what a ****ing flop she should end her career
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by Crazy Lights
I thought it was already obvious that it was going to take a lot more than a huge first week of sales to dethrone Blurred Lines with it's current airplay lead.
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If Katy Perry released the MV the same day as the song was released to Itunes/AmazonMP3, she would have a very good shot at #1.
550,000 sales + 10,000,000 streams would do it
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Member Since: 8/17/2009
Posts: 6,121
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are you comparing one direction's music video to katy's lyric video? i dont see the logic & not you using another member (who is a katy stan by the way) math to prove your point
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 1,777
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That's disappointing
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Member Since: 2/13/2012
Posts: 62,082
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Quote:
Originally posted by pika
This needed its own thread.
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Actually, yes.
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