I don't think she's going to win tbh. We'll see once all the other award predictions come in. I liked her in SLP but I don't think it's an Oscar winning performance. (but there have been doezens of winners I disagreed with so whatevs)
However it may well be that her role in 'The Hunger Games' cemented her status rather than 'Silver Linings', as she has a number of competitors for the Oscar nod, with Jessica Chastain ('Zero-Dark-Thirty'), Sally Field ('Lincoln'), Quvenzhane Wallis ('Beasts of the Southern Wild') and Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) snapping at her heels.