13 - Croatia - Dragonfly & Dado Topic - Vjerujem U Ljubav
What it sounds like: If Kelly Clarkson and Eddie Van Halen did a ballad together Why it will win: Best rock ballad, rather decent melody and vocals, Croatia always escapes the semifinals. Why it will falter: A lot of guitar will please the Fins, but who else? Dado appears to be 70 and could break on that very round stage they have. The girl singing is rather shouty. Benefit of draw: #13 makes it out of the finals, and Croatia makes it out wherever they qualify. Problem: It's stuck between two showy numbers and considering it's a ballad it may be spaced due to the rock of the Czechs and the pop-punk of Andorra. Who it's gonna get votes from: Bosnia & Herzegovenia, Serbia, Montenegro, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia, maybe Finland Who's ignoring it: UK, Ireland, Spain, France, Russia, Belarus Who they need to get points from: Moldova. Any love from the farther east for this dreary dreck will come from them alone.
14 - Poland - The Jet Set - Time To Party
What it sounds like: Fergie and will.i.am. are forced to make up a song in seven minutes or their furs are set on fire. Why it will win: General good will towards Poland, since they have just barely missed the finals the last two years. It'll be popular in the clubs and it's urban, but not too much to where they'd be legitimate. Why it will falter: It actually might be the worst actual song in the contest, and I am including Bulgaria in that sentiment. The staging is messy, he sounds pained, she sounds flat. Benefit of draw: #14 always makes the final Problem: They finished 11th with a mariachi band (of course they have mariachi music in Poland) in Kyiv semis. They finished 11th in the semis with one bizarre as hell number. This is somehow worse than both those, and considering the strength of Serbia's ballad, it should be ignored. Who it's gonna get votes from: Czech Republic, Hungary, Ukraine, Germany, UK, Russia Who's ignoring it: Spain, Greece, Malta, Cyprus, Turkey Who they need to get points from: Austria. It's been 11th the last two semis with Mariachi music and with...ya know, I have no idea WHAT it is, although I KNOW it was ass. Extra push from the center could get Fergie and will. into the finals.
15 - Serbia - Marija Šerifović - Molitva
What it sounds like: Clay Aiken singing over Enya Why it will win: Serbia has plenty of fans via the diaspora and should snatch all the Yugoslav 12s in the semis. The ballad is one of the stronger ones in the contest and the last chorus comes off rather excellently. Why it will falter: Besides the fact that if Pink and Clay Aiken had a son he'd look just like her? Well, if the nonsense behind Marija stays, everyone will be confused by the rhythmic gymnastics competition that broke out. It takes a while to get to the emotional climax of the song. Benefit of draw: Serbia makes it in normally and they are #15, an automatic in. Problem: It's in the middle of the marathon, and how many will recall this come Austria...40 or so minutes later. Who it's gonna get votes from: Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovenia, Slovenia, FYR Macedonia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Russia Who's ignoring it: UK, Sweden, Norway, Iceland Who they need to get points from: Ireland. The Irish love a klonky ballad number and their aid will shoo the Serbs into the finals.
16 - Czech Republic - Kabat - Malá Dáma
What it sounds like: An actual American rock act Why it will win: The next Lordi? This will go over HUGE in Helsinki and out west. Their new-ness helps too, although they are facing off with Georgia to score that slot into the finals. Why it will falter:We left the drums in Kyiv and the white suit nonsense in Athens...will the public rebel to rock? There is a lot in the semis, and it may not be as Euro-friendly as Montenegro, Croatia or Andorra. Benefit of draw: It's right in front of the Portuguese dedication to Dancing With The Stars and after a Serbian ballad so there's a definite contrast. Problem: If this went later, I'd mark them in. As it is, there's still a lot of show left and who knows how this will be remembered when Latvia puts us to slumber with their Il Divo number. Who it's gonna get votes from: Finland, Poland, Germany, Slovenia, Austria, Switzerland, UK, Ireland Who's ignoring it: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia Who they need to get points from: Serbia & Spain. Being in the middle sucks, since they get love from all and need help from a few others.
Believe it or not, the next edition comes Sunday rather than Tuesday! The Sunday show has 17-20, featuring Dancing With The Portuguese Stars, FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF Macedonia, Dancing With The Norwegian Stars, and Malta. And trust that the music video is her clip.
Tuesday features 21-24: Andorra, Hungary, Estonia & Belgium, with the most actual guitars seen on stage in god only knows how long. Friday finishes the Semifinals with Slovenia, Turkey, Austria & Latvia, so a lot of opera and sugar for ya!
17 - Portugal - Sabrina - Dança Comigo (vem ser feliz)
What it sounds like: Dancing With The Stars theme song, as sung by whoever does the vocals on telenovela themes. Why it will win: It's cute, she's cute with ****** bangs, and Portugal's now the longest member of Eurovision not to win, so there could be a push to move them to win. Why it will falter: After "Dança Comigo" number 4, you will be tired of this. And every line starts "Dança Comigo." Or imagining Heather Mills Not Goldigger Just PeTA Moron McCartney flinging her leg at poor deluded Sabrina. And Sabrina is pork stupid, saying to ESCToday she plans on "wearing" a different outfit everyday while in Helsinki. I hope she showers. Benefit of draw: It is coming after Czech rock, so a clear vocal after the growly mess may just work. And it's a cute enough melody to be remembered by those nations who do Dancing With The Stars. Problem: Norway's Dança Comigo (Vem Ser Feliz) is two away from this, meaning knockout time right there. Who it's gonna get votes from: Spain, Andorra, Norway, Sweden Who's ignoring it: France, Ireland Who they need to get points from: Georgia. A LOT of eastern votes have to be tricked into liking this number to have a shot at not finishing dead last.
18 - Macedonia - Karolina Gocheva - Mojot Svet
What it sounds like: The Coronation Song for Macedonian Idol Why it will win: She's hot, she's got legs for miles, the song's not half bad and the melody is rather good. Macedonia has a 100% rate of making the finals. Why it will falter: There's A LOT of Balkans in the finals and not all of them are making it in. This is probably the most marked for missing the finals, along with fellow 100%er Croatia. Benefit of draw: It splits the Ven Bailar Comigo Ver Ser Migo Feliz numbers and should look better than both of them. Problem: With the performance already looking...confusing, Norway's rather slick number, Malta's gong show and whatever Sabrina brings to wear could outshine Karolina. Who it's gonna get votes from: Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovenia, Croatia, Albania, Bulgaria, Turkey Who's ignoring it: Slovenia, Czech Republic, Iceland, Finland, Who they need to get points from: Greece, what with Macedonia and Serbia sending ballad-ish songs, they need extra backing besides the Mafia to get into the finals yet again
19 - Norway - Guri Schanke - Ven a bailar conmigo
What it sounds like: Take Portugal's song, run it through Babelfish and give it to Kathy Hilton. Why it will win: It's catchier than Portugal, it's pure schlager, and she has a frock change before the final chorus. Why it will falter: It comes AFTER Portugal, so a shoddy vocal will send this crashing, as could some Danish love Benefit of draw: It's late enough that it will be more remembered, and it comes off Macedonia's more slower beat. Problem: It's still behind Portugal in the showing and there's still 9 other songs. Plus, Malta and Andorra will steal the stage from her pink frock in a hurry. Who it's gonna get votes from: Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Russia, Slovenia, Croatia Who's ignoring it: UK, Iceland, Finland, Poland, Czech Republic Who they need to get points from: Andorra. A clean sweep of Iberia is essential for this dumb as hell schlager to get into the finals.
20 - Malta - Olivia Lewis - Vertigo
However, I prefer this...hee hee hee
What it sounds like: Flamenco schlager Why it will win: It's one of the better actual songs in the contest - good lyrics, excellent melody, weird as hell key change. Why it will falter:The staging at every show she's done since Song For Europe has been beyond ****. And there's a gong. And she dresses like a zebra. And considering no one understood Zorro's...er...Fabrizio's cumberbun or incessant need to say "I do" a lot last year, a weird stage show could damage a good song here. Benefit of draw: It's after Norway and should be able to be seen as a strong number in a back-end of rather good songs...Latvia notwithstanding. Problem: Andorra's punky noise will be quickly drowning her out, so she needs A BETTER STAGE SHOW to keep afloat. Who it's gonna get votes from: UK, Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Serbia, Spain Who's ignoring it: Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus Who they need to get points from: Lithuania. I can see the Russian bloc ignoring the song for some reason and the Baltic states are the most obvious target to score a few extra points.
Tuesday features 21-24: Andorra, Hungary, Estonia & Belgium, with the most actual guitars seen on stage in god only knows how long.
Friday finishes the Semifinals with Slovenia, Turkey, Austria & Latvia, so a lot of opera and sugar for ya!
And now, the appearance of a guitar...and a keytar!
21 - Andorra - Anonymous - Salvem el mon
What it sounds like: If Simple Plan covered a song from the Sum's "Chuck" album Why it will win: It's punk, but not evil enough to result in backlash. it's bound to go well in Helsinki and should be rather popular with the young'uns Why it will falter: Will the kids in Europe vote? It's a stark departure from the typical Eurovision song, so Benefit of draw: It's in the back end, so it should be forgotten and it's far enough away from the Balkan rockers to be different. Problem: If Hungary's number goes off better than i think, it will hurt Who it's gonna get votes from: Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, Ireland, UK, Israel, Finland Who's ignoring it: Sweden, Norway, Czech Republic, Serbia, Russia Who they need to get points from: Cyprus. Any help there could get some more southern love and their first ever appearance in the finals.
22 - Hungary - Magdi Ruzsa - Unsubstantial Blues
*No idea if she even did this in Hungarian...or Serbian live*
What it sounds like: A blues song done with gravel in the mouth Why it will win: It's a novel song, it's original, the melody is excellent Why it will falter: It's rather painful in English and while I love the song it might be better suited in Hungarian Benefit of draw: Between pop-punk and schlager, it should benefit from the original sound. Problem: It could be drowned out if Andorra does better than expected and if the Belgian number is as good as hoped. Who it's gonna get votes from: Bulgaria, UK, Czech Republic, Russia, Croatia Who's ignoring it: Ukraine, Greece, Russia, Finland who they need to get points from: Israel. It's gonna poll well in the west I think and with some Israeli lovin it could sneak into the finals.
23 - Estonia - Gerdi Padar - Partners In Crime
*This is the video...although she did a diff video for presentation for Eurolaul and no live shot exists*
What it sounds like: If Pink sang schlager Why it will win: Its not a bad song, catchy hook, she appears to be able to sing. Why it will falter: Can she sing live. Why is this performed happier than I recall it being? Why the hell is she dancing? Benefit of draw: There's no true schlager number in the back end and those wanting a normal Eurovision number will support this, as it's really the only thing left since Norway. Problem: Belgium, Hungary and Andorra sent better songs and should have better staging. Estonia's in a rut right here. Who it's gonna get votes from: Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, Finland Who's ignoring it: Ireland, Cyrpus Who they need to get points from: Macedonia. At least one Balkan state is needed to help increase their shot and their best hope would be the Macedonians.
24 - Belgium - Krazy Mess Groovers - Love Power
*as live as it gets, yo*
What it sounds like: If Earth Wind & Fire sent a song. Why it will win: It's cheery, should have a great stage show, and features a keytar. Why it will falter:Amongst a rather strong last 8 songs, is the cheeryness and funky beats enough to keep it remembered? We have a fave in Slovenia next, and their disco opera could outshine this sparkler. Benefit of draw: It's late, it should be recalled, and it comes after Estonia. Problem: It may have wished to not been just ahead of the Slovenes or Turks, as their similar sounding numbers are bound to have flashy stage show. Who it's gonna get votes from: France, UK, Netherlands, Germany Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovenia Who they need to get points from: Greece, just to help. Turkish and Cypriot votes can help to.
Friday finishes the Semifinals with Slovenia, Turkey, Austria & Latvia, so a lot of opera and sugar for ya!
*dedicated to the awe-inspiring beauty that is Hilary Duff. May her horsey chin live on *
25 - Slovenia - Alenka Gotar - Cvet z juga
What it sounds like: The next great ABBA opera. Why it will win: It's a rather novel concept for a song, she nails it (mostly), it's different enough to be remembered. Why it will falter: Those annoying as sin background singers ruin the song, especially since she ditched the SOMEONE PINCHED MY ASS note for something more pretty. Latvia is too close for their liking. Will people get opera? Benefit of draw: Problem: Latvia is 3 songs away and Turkey comes right after it. Disco opera gets screwed twice. Who it's gonna get votes from: Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovenia, Albania, Greece, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Switzerland Who's ignoring it: Austria, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Spain Who they need to get points from: UK. They really need more western support to finally escape the semis this year. Which is why the Latvian entry will hurt them.
26 - Turkey - Kenan Dogulu - Shake it Up Shekerim
*The "live" video is so horribly shot, it's insane. And he can't lip...see:
What it sounds like: Timberlake on a hooka Why it will win: Turkey has a good fan base, the song is catchy in a nice mash between Timba beats and George Michael vocals...so, Timberlake! Why it will falter: The slick video hides the absolute disaster that was the live presentation of the song. Kenan doesn't normally sing in English, so can he nail it? Will the messy live version be cleaned up? Will the weirdness of the lyrics be ignored. Benefit of draw: To be perfectly honest, Turkey is more of a lock than Switzerland or Serbia and could have went second and still finished well. For them, the slot gives them a chance to show off against a probably standing-still Slovenia. Problem: It's next to another aggressive pop song and we haven't seen that one live. If Austria pulls a surprise and Kenan fails to impress live, Turkey will be less comfortable in qualifying. Who it's gonna get votes from: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Greece, Israel, Germany, UK, France, Spain, Malta Who's ignoring it: Bulgaria, Hungary, Norway, Iceland Who they need to get points from: Russia, just in case the rest of the Yugoslav Mafia ignores the song.
27 - Austria - Eric Papilaya - Get A Life, get Alive
*This is the video...no live yet*
What it sounds like: Anastacia. Since it was made for her before her breast cancer. Why it will win: It's one of the more aggressive pop songs in the contest with a message - things Eurovision's all about. Ties to Elton John's Life Ball could get some western love. Why it will falter: Admitting the song was originally for Anastacia was the biggest **** up, because she'd make this song about fifteen times better. It's gonna be compared against Moldova and Montenegro...and probably Estonia and seeing as no one has any idea how it will be staged could put this at a disadvantage. Benefit of draw: It comes after Turkey and if Turkey messes up (which is more than likely as it stands) a good performance could get them into the Finals. Problem: It's lack of badassness is prevalent, Turkey and Latvia are considered stronger contenders, Euro-fatigue after 27 songs. Who it's gonna get votes from: Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, France Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, FYR Macedonia Who they need to get points from: Latvia. They love dreck, so some help here would be needed.
28 - Latvia - Bonaparti.lv - Questa Notte
What it sounds like: Il Divo in reverse Why it will win: It's Il Divo and draw the mums of the UK. Why it will falter: It's a bad Il Divo and the Russian bloc will be confused. Why is Latvia, after failing with an a capella band with a puppet sending Italian music? Why does one of them sound like he is drowning? Benefit of draw: It's the last damn song. Problem: It can put you to sleep
[b]Who it's gonna get votes from: UK, Ireland, Russia, Lithuania, Estonia
Who's ignoring it: Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Serbia, Finland
who they need to get points from: Bosnia. Help from another ballad nation helps increased approval across the continent.
Hurray, that's the semifinals!
Notes on concerns
* Can they sing live: Cyprus, Turkey (and in English), Austria, Hungary (in English)
* Can staging save them: Belarus, Andorra, Malta, Georgia, Iceland, Macedonia
* Can they shine above the gimmick: Netherlands, Moldova, Croatia
* Can they avoid being just a gimmick: Latvia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Norway, Denmark
* Will being, for some alien reason, favorites blow up in their face: Cyprus, Belarus, Bulgaria, Switzerland
I've started to move around the projected final ten - as I still don't see Poland in and think Macedonia has a stronger shot of making the finals than does Croatia.
Tuesday begins Day 1 of 3 of the finals: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Spain, Ireland, Finland and Lithuania. Friday is Favorites day, with Greece, Sweden, France & Russia. And next Sunday is Gimmickfest 2007 with Germany, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Romania & Armenia. Stay tuned!
*dedicated to me not writing my stupid Christianity paper. May Thecla and Paul survive one more day before I write it
It's the beginning of the Finals!
1 - Bosnian & Herzegovina - Marija Sestic - Rijeka Bez Imena
What it sounds like: A Spanish ballad Why it will win: A very pretty ballad, simple melody, nothing too fancy. Why it will falter: Firstly, it actually sounds like she is singing in Spanish and without recalling that it is in fact Bosnian (-Serbo-Croat) it could harm her. The poor girl apparently loves tents for outfits and hasn't actually "sang" this live...I think. The Sarajevo presentation seems taped and her Serbia perf was clearly lipped. Will nerves get her since she opens the show? Benefit of draw: It's a lot better than last year's opener and it's a charming song, so it might just work right. Problem: Its first and followed by some Spanish schlager nonsense. She could be forgotten by the time the votes start. Needs to be kept far away come finals: Serbia needs to be drawn far away from the 3 slot for this to do well. Who it's gonna get votes from: Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia, Russia Who's ignoring it: Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Greece, Cyprus Who they need to get points from: Estonia. Apparently that was all I wrote for it.
2 - Spain - D'nash - I Love You Mi Vida
What it sounds like: If NSYNC did more Swedish schlager around "It's Gonna Be Me." Why it will win: It's a catchy beat and the song isn't horrendously bad. I guess they guys are supposed to be pretty as well, so there's gonna be a teen girl vote right there. Why it will falter: Firstly, they all try to sing at the same time, making the vocal extremely messy and sounding like they are fighting for lead slot. Secondly, they can't dance. Thirdly, it's going second. Fourthly, it's not Mirela's more excellent "La Reina De La Noche" which was such a badass performance it makes this seem worse than it is. But I'm bitter. Benefit of draw: Well, a good stage show after a ballad and before whatever goes third could help them out. Problem: It's the 2 slot. Last decent result was when Cyprus sent a boyband to Copenhagen 2001 and finished 6th. That might be pushing it for them. Needs to be kept far away come finals: While they need all the schalger numbers kept far away, Israel, Andorra and Malta must be back-enders. Israel due to controversy, Andorra due to split voting and Malta cuz their schlager number is more Spanish than Spain's. Who it's gonna get votes from: Portugal, Andorra, UK, Ireland Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Czech Republic, Finland Who they need to get points from: France, Germany and Russia. For any of the Big4 to win this thing, backing from the other 3 members of the clique is basically required. Considering Russia's girlgroup is miles better than this number, any support out east will surely help.
4 - Ireland - Dervish -They Can't Stop The Spring
What it sounds like: Something Riverdance would stop their feet to. Why it will win: It's Ireland, it's a classy little number with just enough political punch to work, it has a message of togetherness people like. Why it will falter: She somehow sounds to be both flat and singing through her nose. And while this work for The Cranberries, will it work there? It could be rather droll, especially if something louder makes it to the 3 slot. Benefit of draw: A clean performance before the Home Nation could do wonders, since Hanna's not all that great in the vocals. Problem: Who wants to hear a flute and fiddle this early? Will the expectations and noise of the homeside drown out the simple pleasantry? Needs to be kept far away come finals: Anything with a pulse - Czech Republic and Andorra would be bad, but I think Belarus, Cyprus or Georgia could do more damage. Who it's gonna get votes from: UK, France, Norway, Sweden, Spain, Germany Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Poland Who they need to get points from: Greece. It needs some eastern love and Greece, although with questionable musical standards, is the most obvious choice.
5 - Finland - Hanna Pakarinen - Leave Me Alone
What it sounds like: Evanescence as sung by Gina Glocksen. She's got two ditties! Why it will win: It's an angry rock song, which we haven't got yet. It's the home country and they tend (sans Ukraine) to do well at home, it should go over well in the West. Why it will falter: It's a cold-sounding song about a one-night stand with a cheating man. Even if rock and metal are considered pop to the Finns, will this appeal to the rest of the continent? Benefit of draw: It comes after Ireland and should reawaken the crowd. Problem: It's before an unknown entry and depending on what it is, could steal the thunder - especially if Switzerland or Belarus get it. Needs to be kept far away come finals: It'll be hard with the noise after the home goes, but if Moldova gets the 6 slot, it will be a battle of identical-sounding (not lyrically, anyways) rock songs done by pretty girls. Actually, Finland needs the other rock songs that sneak into the finals near Sweden and France. Who it's gonna get votes from: Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, UK, Ireland, Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovenia, Croatia, Albania Who they need to get points from: Greece. Only hope to pull a Luxembourg (they won twice in a row first) is for southern help since even with the number of nations I think will vote for it, don't expect many 10s or 12s.
Friday is Favorites day, with Greece, Sweden, France & Russia. And Sunday is Gimmickfest 2007 with Germany, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Romania & Armenia. Stay tuned!
*dedicated to me working from 11am to more than likely 11pm on Easter. Off at 8pm...might as well stay, no?
Favorites Time!
9 - Lithuania - 4Fun - Love or Leave
What it sounds like: A Spanish ballad. Just like Bosnia! Why it will win: A very pretty ballad, simple melody, nothing too fancy. Just like Bosnia! Why it will falter: It sounds like Bosnia, which would normally sound like Spain. It drags for 2:30 before the only interesting thing - the way she handles the final chorus - occurs. It's dull staging. Benefit of draw: It's far enough away from ballads and most crazy hijinxs to survive for the most part. Problem: It's stuck before a rather rambunctious and frantic Greek number and after a qualifier. Needs to be kept far away come finals: It's already screwed since Greece comes after it. The worst would be Turkey, Austria, Hungary, Estonia or Georgia comes before it. Who it's gonna get votes from: Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Georgia, Russia, Ireland Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Greece, Turkey, Albania Who they need to get points from: Spain. it's a damn Spanish-sounding number. Might as well score points.
10 - Greece - Sarbel - Yassou Maria
What it sounds like: Ricky Martin's gayer cousin Why it will win: After the first verse, it's rather good. Good beat. People like silly Greek dance numbers lately. Why it will falter: Besides mixing some "Shake Your Love" and "My Number One," it has the worst set of opening lyrics in the final and the song as a whole rivals Poland for utter shitness. The staging is beyond hysterically horrid. And does anyone outside the UK know of The Cheeky Girls? Benefit of draw: Lithuania's before it. Problem: Sweden and France are right near it and there's a qualifier right after it. Needs to be kept far away come finals: It really needs Turkey to miss the finals overall, since they are already being compared and Turkey's sugar is more logical and better than this mess. Sarbel should want more rock after it to differentiate and hurt the Swedes, but needs Belarus and Cyprus away as well due to similar staging issues. Who it's gonna get votes from: Cyprus, Turkey, Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary Who's ignoring it: Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, Poland, Iceland Who they need to get points from: UK. And they really do need the western support, considering their schlager pop is worse than most.
12 - Sweden - The Ark -The Worrying Kind
What it sounds like: "Invincible" with more guitar Why it will win: It's Sweden, it's "rock" and it's schlager, the routine is popular Why it will falter: Personally, I think it's both **** and lazy. And with France after it and a qualifier before it possibly being a rocker act, their status as a fave should begin slinking. Benefit of draw: It comes before the break and away from the silly perfs and other schlager. Problem: That qualifier performing 11th. Needs to be kept far away come finals: Both schlager - Norway, Portugal, Malta, Belarus - and rock - Czech Republic, Andorra, Iceland, Croatia - need to not go here otherwise Sweden will be shown to be worse than it is. Who it's gonna get votes from: Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Finland, UK, Ireland, Israel, Russia Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovenia Who they need to get points from: Slovenia. I don't see the southeast going for them, so get the most friendly of those nations to help aid you to victory!
13 - France - Les fatals Picards - L'amour a la Francaise
*Superfinal performance f. some dancing majorettes*
What it sounds like: If Israel's number was a love song rather than about nukes Why it will win: It's a madcap French rock song with English mixed it. It's the most fun number they've sent in years. Why it will falter: Well, they can't have Les Verdettes on stage with them so the crazy ladies are gone. Will people "get" the song or will people continue to pretend France doesn't compete. Benefit of draw: It's after Sweden and should look rather good after them. Plus they may perform in a snowglobe ^_^ Problem: It's after the break, so will people miss the song cuz they went to get more drunk? Needs to be kept far away come finals: The Czechs and Andorrans should be kept away if possible, as should any flash stagings - Norway, Austria, Georgia, Latvia. Who it's gonna get votes from: UK, Andorra, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria
Who's ignoring it: Russia. Probably more East rejection, but France gets so ignored I dunno if I wanna write down 20 nations.
who they need to get points from: Serbia. Get some east love from the mother of them all, and you can snatch a win.
15 - Russia - Serebro - Song Number One
*nope, not even their live premier was live. So enjoy the wind machine!*
What it sounds like: Girls Aloud singing a Sugababes song. Or, what the UK should send. Why it will win: Besides the fact that I love it? It's got a kickass hook, theirs the sound of a gunclick at the end of the dance break (Gunclick FTW), the song is catchy and they fake the badassness well enough. Why it will falter: Lead singer looks like she was attacked by The Grudge, they say "bitches" a lot, we have no idea if they can sing or how the dancebreak is staged. Benefit of draw: It's before Germany's swing number and far away from main rivals Sweden and Ukraine Problem: It's in the middle of the show. Needs to be kept far away come finals: Turkey or Switzerland, if only for those are also catchy showy numbers. It should hold it's own against the rest, provided they can sing. Who it's gonna get votes from: Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, UK, Who's ignoring it: Georgia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Who they need to get points from: France. Even with it being a knockoff Sugababes song, I don't think the Western nations sans the UK and maybe Ireland will embrace it (they like their pop all schlager) so an additional Big 4 country will help.
Tuesday is Gimmickfest 2007 with Germany, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Romania & Armenia. And Wednesday I unveil the first ever Eurovision MVAs!
16 - Germany - Roger Cicero - Frauen regier'n die Welt
What it sounds like: If Michael Buble was slimy in German. Why it will win: It's Jazz! It name-drops Posh Spice! It's comes before the chaos! Why it will falter: It's boring as hell! Benefit of draw: It's not near a commercial break. Problem: Russia is before it and Ukraine is two away. Even on off vocals those perfs might outshine the simple pleasure of jazz from six guys. Needs to be kept far away come finals: Considering no jazz exists besides this...it may want to keep the slick numbers away if possible. Belarus, Denmark, Switzerland. Who it's gonna get votes from: Poland, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria, UK, Ireland, Netherlands Who's ignoring it: Serbia, Montenegro, Russia Who they need to get points from: Cyprus. I just don't see people voting en mass for a retro number like this, so some help is needed.
*I assume it's the reprise at the end. Watch and enjoy.*
What it sounds like: Your gran on a bender. Which makes it better! Why it will win: It's insane madcap goodness, perfect level of schlock and cheese. Why it will falter: It's apparent Ukraine is populated by rather insane people. Let see, we have Grandma wearing the Christmas star singing with two rather fetchingly gay British Navy personel with Cleopatra original and Cleopatra 2525 on backing vocals with an accordion. She's also more in line with Sylvia Night from last year - commedian guy in drag, though - so will she behave? Benefit of draw: This is Top 10 no matter where it goes. Problem: The UK entry is gimmicky and also gets stuck in the head. Are they to close? Needs to be kept far away come finals: Well, the UK is on stage with their rolling carts next, so just keep Switzerland or Denmark away or this may make Eurovision the comedy event of the year. Who it's gonna get votes from: Russia, Belarus, latvia, lithuania, Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, Germany, UK, Portugal Who's ignoring it: Spain, France, Serbia, Greece Who they need to get points from: Denmark. Share-a-drag, get the schlager republics involved.
19 - UK - Scooch - Flying The Flag (For You)
What it sounds like: The missing Swedish entry. Why it will win: It's ear cancer - it will be stuck in your skull no matter how much you hate it. It's naughty, it's schlocky, and they clearly are enjoying themselves! And I don't give a ****, I love this so damn much! And for added mesure, everyone's written this off as rubbish. Why it will falter: Besides trying to figure out where to stash the backing gals? Ukraine comes before it and that hurts. Can the lead girl maintain her vocals? Can the blonde one not screech? Can they get away with the innuendo? Benefit of draw: Bizarrely enough, coming after Ukraine is perfect. If it stays as slick as MYMU was it could shock a lot a people come the results. Problem: With Romania afterwards, it becomes a question on which of the gimmicks get ignored. Needs to be kept far away come finals: Well, it's stuck between a comedic drag act and six guys screaming. Do ya vote for screaming to dance, screaming airline attendants or screaming scary guys? Who it's gonna get votes from: Sweden (schlager 12), Norway (schlager 10), Denmark (schlager 10), Ireland, Greece, Cyprus, Malta Who's ignoring it: Russia, Belarus, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania Who they need to get points from: Finland. This needs all the Schalger love it can get to make a surprising run for more than 30 points.
20 - Romania - Todomundo - Liubi Liubi I Love You
What it sounds like: Switzerland's song last year, but with funny lookin people. Why it will win: We got six languages! Why it will falter: We got six languages and no one cares, especially with slimy "Italian" and the Russian and Spanish singers looking like Jack Black clones. The beat is lazy and it's after two rather visually-strong numbers. If any of the gimmicks are falling on their arse this time, it's this one. Benefit of draw: It's the last of the gimmicks and before some qualifiers Problem: Can it hold up against the Ukraine and the UK? Needs to be kept far away come finals: UK in front...maybe keep a rock song away? The ethno ballads it can deal with. Who it's gonna get votes from: Greece, Moldova, Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Russia, Austria, Lithuania Who's ignoring it: Armenia, Georgia, Czech Republic, Who they need to get points from: UK. Might as well, considering all the gimmicking votes here.
23 - Armenia - Hayko - Anytime You Need
What it sounds like: Serbia's song slowed down. Thanks to molasses. Why it will win: It's a ballad. That sounds like Bosnia and Lithuania. Hope for confusion! Why it will falter: It's the longest ballad in history. it basically just plods along. The staging is crap and even Hayko seems bored by the song. Armenia is damn lucky Andre placed for them, cuz this would be bottom-dweller in the semis. Benefit of draw: It's towards the back of the show - second to last - and should have that help. Problem: Qualifiers before and after. Any of them (even Bulgaria) would wipe the floor with this song. Needs to be kept far away come finals: Latvia, Serbia, Albania for main purposes of avoiding ethno-ballads. But put a rock number, a pop stomper, Poland next to it and this will falter quickly. Who it's gonna get votes from: Russia, Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia Who's ignoring it: Georgia, Serbia, FYR Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovenia, Greece Who they need to get points from: Spain. And it HAS to be memorable, otherwise it's marked for dead last with no points.
Um Kelly dear....love Never Again for it awesome and nifty and screamable and the entire "repent yourself away" line is the best single line of a song this year and all.
Between McPhee's McExtensions and the stripey tight dress of stretchy doom that makes her hips looking bigger than her entire body and the unneeded use of POCKETS outside the dress.
Is it me, or do the pockets on her high-waisted pantaloons make it look like a diaper up front. And she's all **** and PANTS with no feet or midsection.
Maybe it's the eyes but she looks insane. Remember how, like, last year she went all high gloss and was ****ing stunning? Now she looks like she inhales a bump of cocaine that Paula eyes greedily.
The Turks and Serbs are pretty much in the finals thanks mostly to the diaspora and neighborly voting. The Swiss have the most immediately catchy number in the final and shouldn't falter like other faves...provided Bobo and the gang sing well while dancing.
(4) Malta
(5) FYR Macedonia
(6) Belarus
(7) Andorra
Pretty much from #5 on I am rather unsure, since I think Malta is a lock. Macedonia
has climbed a lot lately due to Karolina looking damn hot as well as the most hysterical English translation of a song ever. Belarus might have enough backing to make the finals, although I really doubt it. As for Andorra...I think it's a given at least one rock song is making the finals and it's really gonna be down to Andorra and the Czech Republic for it, since the other rock numbers are either slow (Montenegro, Iceland, Croatia) or led by ladies with too many dancers (Moldova, Estonia).
(8) Hungary
(9) Belgium
(10) Georgia
These are the 3 I'm more skiddish on, and doing plenty of wishful thinking. Mostly due to all the buzz over Cyprus and Bulgaria. And while both are placing really well in the fan club votes, I still don't see either appealing to those watching at home.
As for the rest I have no idea. For now anyways. Although I will say Austria and Portugal might be bigger threats than first thought and should be watched. As should the Czechs, the Norwegians, the Danes and the Croats. Bulgaria and Cyprus will also be in the mix, but hopefully they (and Belarus) get ignored for something less buggy.
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