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Special Event: 1st Presidential Debate of 2012
Member Since: 4/10/2011
Posts: 14,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
23 democratic senate seats are up for re-election this go around and 9 are vulnerable...vs like 3 vulnerable republican ones...and republicans just need like 5 to be the majority
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As it stands now democrats will keep 51 seats.
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Member Since: 10/16/2005
Posts: 16,872
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Quote:
Originally posted by Doc
How was your student aid tho?
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It was all covered.
Both Vanderbilt and Johns Hopkins offered me a full ride. Actually, the seemingly less expensive, public schools wanted me to pay more (I applied to several public universities in California).
I would definitely be fearful if Romney became president, though. Frankly, I get the impression that he only wants to become president to satisfy his personal desires.... to be viewed as a great person. There's not really a sense that he cares to serve the people of this nation.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
You are looking at state polls that outpoll democrats by over the average of democrats that have turned out in 2000 and 2004. 2008 was a rare election, it was historic. Democrats are not as excited to vote as republicans are. The turn out will be a tied, not a 9 point advantage to either side. This election is tied.
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It's very often nearly tied in the popular vote though.  It all depends on distribution of states that each candidate has a lead in and Obama clearly has the lead there. He has a lead in, among several other states, places like California, Illinois, New York, and Florida. Those four alone give him almost exactly half the electoral votes he needs to win. On top of that, he currently leads in states giving him a collective 200 more votes. He'd have to lose a lead in 76 Electoral votes for Romney to surpass him at all. It is extremely doubtful he could lose that many states by simply being less aggressive in one debate, it's practically impossible. 
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Member Since: 4/10/2011
Posts: 14,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro Dance Freak
It's very often nearly tied in the popular vote though.  It all depends on distribution of states that each candidate has a lead in and Obama clearly has the lead there. He has a lead in, among several other states, places like California, Illinois, New York, and Florida. Those four alone give him almost exactly half the electoral votes he needs to win. On top of that, he currently leads in states giving him a collective 200 more votes. He'd have to lose a lead in 76 Electoral votes for Romney to surpass him at all. It is extremely doubtful he could lose that many states by simply being less aggressive in one debate, it's practically impossible. 
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California and the other states besides the bolded one, don't matter, they never go Republican.
Florida is not for Obama, you need to look at the poll SAMPLES. It shows WHO they polled and WHICH political party they belong too. The polls are not accurate.
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
As it stands now democrats will keep 51 seats.
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there were polls predicting dems wouldn't do as bad as they did in 2010 right before they got clobbered tho...
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
California and the other states besides the bolded one, don't matter, they never go Republican.
Florida is not for Obama, you need to look at the poll SAMPLES. It shows WHO they polled and WHICH political party they belong too. The polls are not accurate.
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So all the states that Obama is nearly guaranteed to win that collectively bring him to what he needs to win overall... don't matter?
Florida is leaning toward Obama. If you don't even know what poll I'm using as a source how can you claim it's inaccurate? 
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro Dance Freak
So all the states that Obama is nearly guaranteed to win that collectively bring him to what he needs to win overall... don't matter?
Florida is leaning toward Obama. If you don't even know what poll I'm using as a source how can you claim it's inaccurate? 
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ohio was leaning kerry in 2004 tho...so...
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Member Since: 10/9/2009
Posts: 6,108
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
That is a CNN poll. They typically outpoll democrats by 3-6 points.
You tried hun, but tonight this election has changed. Romney has taken the lead.
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Recent history has shown that debates don't drastically change the election.

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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/26/2001
Posts: 22,475
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
California and the other states besides the bolded one, don't matter, they never go Republican.
Florida is not for Obama, you need to look at the poll SAMPLES. It shows WHO they polled and WHICH political party they belong too. The polls are not accurate.
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...well, of course they matter. They (and Florida) would give him about half the electoral votes he would need to win the whole election. If he wins Florida, Ohio, New York, Illinois, and California...I mean, it would be over. Romney would be done.
Or what RDF said, I guess. 
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Member Since: 10/9/2008
Posts: 9,835
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Please appreciate how lucky you are to have your current president on debate.
Our Argentinian president didn't show up to any of the debates and still was re-elected. Mess.
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Member Since: 4/10/2011
Posts: 14,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro Dance Freak
So all the states that Obama is nearly guaranteed to win that collectively bring him to what he needs to win overall... don't matter?
Florida is leaning toward Obama. If you don't even know what poll I'm using as a source how can you claim it's inaccurate? 
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No, they don't. Just like Texas doesn't matter in the democrats eyes. Bush won 2 elections without those states.
Because I am pretty sure you are using realclearpolitics average. Since you are showing the potential electoral college map.
Anyways goodnight, you get the last word, grats.
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Member Since: 4/10/2011
Posts: 14,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by Red
...well, of course they matter. They (and Florida) would give him about half the electoral votes he would need to win the whole election. If he wins Florida, Ohio, New York, Illinois, and California...I mean, it would be over. Romney would be done.
Or what RDF said, I guess. 
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Florida and Ohio do matter but the others don;t...republicans have won elections without them before? How do you guys not understand this?
Anyways goodnight.
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Member Since: 4/4/2007
Posts: 1,961
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sahn
Please appreciate how lucky you are to have your current president on debate.
Our Argentinian president didn't show up to any of the debates and still was re-elected. Mess.
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For real? How'd he get voted in? Do they just not care? Cause I know in America if someone didnt show up the media would be trashing them so bad.
No shade intended, fyi, just curious
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Member Since: 7/22/2010
Posts: 16,134
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So disappointed in Obama this debate. Romney lied and lied and lied and dodged and lied, and Obama didn't go after any of it.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
No, they don't. Just like Texas doesn't matter in the democrats eyes. Bush won 2 elections without those states.
Because I am pretty sure you are using realclearpolitics average. Since you are showing the potential electoral college map.
Anyways goodnight, you get the last word, grats.
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I did all the research for the electoral votes myself my looking through average current poll results for every single state in combination with trends in the way states have voted over the past four elections.
By the way, my poll sources are usually listed on politico.com.
Here's Florida most recently:
It might be close, but if Romney didn't shift Florida enough tonight it's likely he won't be able to in the end.
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Member Since: 6/5/2009
Posts: 13,743
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
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I'm not the one looking at their polls
I wasn't even talking about polls. I'm just pointing out how idiotic your statements are saying that the election is over.
Also, John Kerry won the debates against Bush in 2004. I'm not saying that every debate and election outcome is the same, but lord oh lord, calm down. There is still a month to go.
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Member Since: 10/9/2008
Posts: 9,835
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Quote:
Originally posted by evfanjake
For real? How'd he get voted in? Do they just not care? Cause I know in America if someone didnt show up the media would be trashing them so bad.
No shade intended, fyi, just curious
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Well, Argentina is a 3rd world country. This type of things aren't rare here. Cristina Kirchner (our current president) has had five news conferences in five years and has only occasionally taken questions.
To know that the Kirchner family has been in the power for the last 10 years says it all. First Nestor and now his wife, Cristina, for the 2nd time.
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Member Since: 6/2/2011
Posts: 28,055
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Quote:
Originally posted by itsAllen
A CNN poll shows 70% of Americans find that Romney won. Does that answer your question
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Yes. Wow.
I'm kind of worried now but also confused...wasn't Romney supposed to be a bumbling idiot ala Bush 2.0? Did he have someone telling him what to say?
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Member Since: 8/29/2012
Posts: 22,883
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The Yahoo! front page poll has Romney winning the debate at 58%.

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Member Since: 6/17/2011
Posts: 6,613
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Quote:
Originally posted by Twai
So disappointed in Obama this debate. Romney lied and lied and lied and dodged and lied, and Obama didn't go after any of it.
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What can obama go after.... Romney was on point
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