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Chart Listings: Hot 100 formula (1 point =1k sales= 667k AI =10k OD streams)
Member Since: 4/24/2004
Posts: 7,295
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Why did airplay points increase so much? Now it's getting easier for the big artists to buy the charts.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 23,567
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dust2
Someone wrote this on Pulse
Is that about right?
Have anyone try to use this formula for past weeks (that are very close)? would you get the correct result? If so, this formula might be the "best" one yet to accurately predict Billboard Hot 100.
Formula is as followed:
200,000 sales = 200 * 1 points
100 million airplay = 100 * 1.5 points
750,000 on-demand stream = 750 * 0.1 points
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This is the most accurate formula I've ever seen posted on ATRL. From what I've read, airplay might even be closer to * 2, but this is a much better approximation than using percentages.
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Taylor: 307,000 sales , 67 million Nelsen AI)
Flo Rida: 180,000 sales, 81 million Nielsen AI, 771,000 on-demand streams)
Taylor:
307 x 1 = 307
67 x 1.5 = 100.5
0 x 0.1 = 0
total: 407.5
Flo Rida:
180 x 1 = 180
81 x 1.5 = 121.5
771 x 0.1 = 77.1
387.6
Difference of 20 points
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Member Since: 8/10/2012
Posts: 1,057
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dust2
Taylor: 307,000 sales , 67 million Nelsen AI)
Flo Rida: 180,000 sales, 81 million Nielsen AI, 771,000 on-demand streams)
Taylor:
307 x 1 = 307
67 x 1.5 = 100.5
0 x 0.1 = 0
total: 407.5
Flo Rida:
180 x 1 = 180
81 x 1.5 = 121.5
771 x 0.1 = 77.1
387.6
Difference of 20 points
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How about 3rd and 4th? It seems very accurate tho, but I think Streaming weights even lower.
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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(1) We Are Never Ever..: 407.5
(2) Whistle: 387.6
(3) Lights: 84k
(4) One More Night: 311.5
(5) Some Nights: 320.9
(6) Call Me Maybe: 122k
(7) Wide Awake: 78k
(8) Payphone: 71k
(9) Good Time: 271.4
(10) As Long As You Love Me: 265.5
"Some Nights" streaming puts it above "OMN" with this formula..we don't have AI/streaming for the peaked songs of course. Maybe the streaming is a bit lower.
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Member Since: 3/31/2012
Posts: 43,847
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LAST WEEK:
Taylor:
623 = 623
40mil = 78
total = 701
Flo
199k = 199
74mil = 111
773k = 77.3
total = 387.3
THIS WEEK:
Taylor
307 = 307
67 = 100.5
total = 407.5
Flo
180 = 180
81 = 121.5
771 = 77.1
total = 378.6
According to BB
Quote:
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Although sales for "Never" more than halve, the song still claims the Hot 100's top spot over Flo Rida's former one-week No. 1 "Whistle." ("Never" decreases by 41% on overall Hot 100 points, while "Whistle" slides by only 2%).
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%decrease
Taylor: 41.87%
Flo: 2.25%
Near enough. 
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Flo Rida is back at #1 thanks to ODS.
Quote:
Flo Rida's "Whistle" returns to the top of the Billboard Hot 100 for a second week at No. 1, pushing Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" down to No. 2 after two weeks in charge.
After first leading the Hot 100 three weeks ago, "Whistle" returns to the top perch, fueled by a 5-3 rise on Radio Songs (89 million, up 10%, according to Nielsen BDS). It slips 3-4 on Digital Songs (161,000, down 10%, according to Nielsen SoundScan) and holds at No. 2 on On-Demand Songs (751,000 on-demand streams, down 3%, according to BDS).
"Whistle" wins a close race with Swift's "Never," as the former song decreases by just 1% in overall Hot 100 points and the latter slides by 11%. Once again, sales for "Never" drop, while the song's radio airplay continues to surge. "Never" spends a third week at No. 1 on Digital Songs with 253,000 downloads sold (down 18%). Despite its downturn, "Never" passes a million sold since its release (1.2 million). On Radio Songs, "Never" bounds 13-10 (71 million, up 6%) in its fourth week. The ascent to the Radio Songs top 10 marks Swift's fastest, besting her five-week climb with "Mine," the lead single from her last studio album, "Speak Now," in 2010. "Never," Swift's fifth Radio Songs top 10, previews her fourth studio set, "Red," due Oct. 22.
With the Hot 100 points gap between "Whistle" and "Never" slim, streaming helps decide the winner.
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Flo Rida: 161,000 sales, 89 mil AI, 751,000 ODS
Taylor: 253,000 sales, 71 mil AI, 0 ODS
Flo: 161 x 1 + 89 x 1.5 + 751 x 0.1 = 369.6
Taylor: 253 x 1 +71 x 1.5 + 0 = 359.5
Quote:
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Maybe the streaming is a bit lower.
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You're right.
It might be lower.
Maybe x 0.08 instead of 0.1. There is also the "passive" streaming component.
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Even if on-demand streams is x by 0.08 instead of 0.1, it would still be about the same for this week.
One More Night
205,000 downloads x 1
102 million audience impressions x 1.5
775,000 on-demand streams x 0.1
205
102 x 1.5
77.5
435.5 points
Gangnam Style
Digital Songs 301,000 x 1
Radio Songs 34 million x 1.5
On-Demand Songs 616,000 x 0.1
301
34 x 1.5
61.6
413.6 points
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Two weeks ago:
1. One More Night: 192/ 82/ 675
2. We Are Never.....: 226/ 81/ 0
192 x 1 = 192 ---sales
82 x 1.5 = 123 ----radio
675 x 0.1 = 67.5 ----ODS
382.5
226--------sales
81 x 1.5 -----radio
0 x 0.1 ---------ODS
= 347.5
If Taylor got around 400,000 on demand streams, she would have gotten #1.
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Member Since: 3/2/2012
Posts: 374
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Looks like the airplay multiplier is actually 1.6 (instead of 1.5). Lesson learned from the close race between Maroon 5 and Psy. It seems like all the math checks out if the airplay multiplier is increased to 1.6.
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Member Since: 4/22/2009
Posts: 11,768
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Take out airplay and weight streams higher. No one is here for payola. How is that showing true demand? 
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Member Since: 8/15/2012
Posts: 2,344
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dust2
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ravi
Multiply sales by 2.
Multiply airplay by 3.
Divide streaming by 6.
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Using that formula:
CMM - 837.5
WA - 749.67
Payphone - 749.167
Whistle - 735.3
Lights - 712.3
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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This week:
One More Night: 160 + 131 x 1.5 + 799,000 = 436.4
Gangnam Style: 231 + 63 x 1.5 + 981,000 = 423.6
I Knew You Were Trouble: 416 + 0 + 0 = 416
It's accurate for this week. Keep in mind that there is a fourth component, passive stream. And the formula is only an educated estimate. It might not be 100% accurate.
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Didn't work for last week though
One More Night: 167 + 125 x 1.5 + 816,000 = 436.1
Gangnam Style: 257 + 56 x 1.5 + 1,000,000 = 441
maybe radio airplay is weighted higher than 1.5
or on-demand stream is weighted less
and then there is that passive streaming component (aka online radio).
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Member Since: 3/2/2012
Posts: 374
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Radio airplay is weighted at 1.6667, not 1.5.
I found out that's how OMN beat GS last week and 2 weeks ago. Airplay is definitely higher than 1.5. I did some quick math and it looks like the multiplier is 1.6667.
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Member Since: 8/22/2010
Posts: 12,270
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Disgusting. 1.5 was already bad enough? But 1.667?!?!?
I hope sales increase enough over Xmas and into the new year to offset that multiplier
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