Who do you think WILL win? NOT who you want to win. That can be two different things.

I recent poll shows

Polls would make it seem very even. That could be kinda misleading. The president is actually elected by the electoral college. So if we look at the electoral college and look at where the candidates are leading. It looks quite differently.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

Obama has a significantly stronger base coming out. If he can take Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia and all the others that are "expected" then he will win. He is actually leading in those states. He doesn't actually need Florida even though he is leading there too.

So what are your thoughts?

i pray romney doesn't get elected

If these voter ID laws/early voting restrictions successfully suppress the minority vote, Romney.

Otherwise, Obama.

I want Obama to win but I have a strong feeling he's gonna lose and we're gonna have another streak of white presidents for like 20 years

The chance of Obama losing is really low, unless Romney pulls a miracle and gets every swing state he's polling badly in.

Rasmussen Reports is the WORST possible polling place you could reference. There's a reason theyre affiliated with DrudgeReport.

If Romney wins, I'm moving to the UK.

i think obama will win. romney is like bush part 2 and obama will expose him during the debates.

It was just the first one. Most national polls are similar.

Oh I didn't notice you were using Rasmussen. They always lean GOP.

Romney

Obama better win.

You're also using polls in the middle of a convention week. Right now Republicans are seeing their convention poll boost. The Democrats will see theirs next week. So polls over the next two weeks or so are going to be pretty unreliable barring a major event.

Nah, and even then using National polls is dishonest because many of them don't take into account population differences in different states. They'll poll 50 people in Florida and 50 people in Winsconsin, although FL is 29 electoral votes and WI is just 10.

If you want a real look, look at the map. In Blue states, Obama is basically starting off with 249 EVs from states that traditionally vote Dem, and Romney starts off with 209. The magic number is 270. Obama just needs to win Florida, and he's got the election. If Obama wins Ohio, Virginia or Pennsylvania, three states he's polling strongly in and are leaning blue in past voter years, he's essentially made winning very hard if not impossible for Romney.

I'm only here for OBAMA. I don't know this thing called romney.

Yea, my mine point was that the electoral map is what you have to look at.

There's a pit in my stomach telling me Romney will win, but I pray Obama does.

Well CNN's Electoral Map has Obama at 237 and ROmney at 191 Romney was at 206, but North Carolina has gone from leaning Romney to being a toss up. And CNN reached out to both parties and each one confirmed CNN's polling data is within the same margin as theirs.

I don't think Obama will pull NC, though the convention being in NC may pull things into his favor. And Florida is skewing towards Obama as well. If he can pull Ohio in his favor, he has it in the bag.

I just saw this on Tumblr
Did they really say that?

It's crucial that Obama makes up for the groups he's gone down in popularity with over the last term, 18-24 year olds being an example. But I think he'll be able to take it.

This man.