Carly will have the longest run at #1 for sure. She won't be the top radio song, but I could easily see her surpassing Gotye in sales since she's still #3 and about to pass 5 million, so she might be able to push ahead for the top song of the year.

I doubt Gotyes sales at this time were bigger and he had bigger competition which made his success look less impressive

Well, that's not really in question. Gotye appeared on a lot more formats than Carly, including Alternative, Rock, and Triple A. And is currently outperforming her on AC.

Yeah, I know. Didn't "Call Me Maybe" peak at #2 on the Radio Songs chart anyway?

She was blocked by STIUTK and Payphone.

Gotye topped 5 million in sales the week after it dropped from #1, while CMM will top it in it's ninth week at #1. They're doing pretty much the same, but CMM is going a tiny bit faster overall - whereas STIUTK topped 6 million in its 30th week and dropped to #6, Carly might still be in the top 5 and top 6 million just before or on her 30th week.

Just read this artcle on Billboard:

"Home," the coronation song by 2012 "American Idol" winner Phillip Phillips, is getting a second life -- thanks to the Olympics.
The song, first released in May, has been used repeatedly as a theme during NBC's broadcast of its women's gymnastics coverage.
Industry sources are forecasting that the song could sell around 200,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Aug. 5. To put that in perspective, in the most recent week (ending July 29), only one song sold more than 200,000: Flo Rida's "Whistle," with 237,000.

LINK

That means "Whistle" could drop below 200k, since it looks like "Home" will do better overall this week. Great news for Carly, she'll be able to hold on next week and maybe the week after if things go right.

there is no way Flo is going to do less than 200k...I'm not here for him dropping so much in sales

I think it's noting how strong "Home" is selling, since only one song sold more than 200,000 this past week.

It's not unusual - Carly herself did 244k a few weeks ago and then dropped to 203k the next week.

I just won't have it...it will do more than 200k...it just will

I just realized how obvious it is when streaming tracking on the Hot 100 started:

SAIKI: 2 weeks
WFL: 2 (more) weeks
SFttR: 2 weeks
Stronger: 2 weeks
POM: 1 week
Stronger: 1 more week
WAY: 6 Weeks
STIUTK: 8 weeks
CMM: 8 weeks, 9th maybe on lock

Well, if Phillip is number one, and he's ONLY doing 200k, chances are, Flo Rida's plummeting like a stone.

Whistle needs to increase heavily for the weekend sales for it to have a chance.

I don't think is that obvious. Those 3 songs have dominated digitally.

"WAY" (5 million) -- 6 weeks @ No. 1 on Radio Songs
"STIUTK" (6 million) -- 6 weeks @ No. 1 on Radio Songs
"CMM" (5 million) -- 5 weeks @ No. 2 on Radio Songs

Streaming only really came into play when "WAY" blocked "Boyfriend," otherwise I think this year would have panned out exactly the same. "Payphone" might have stolen a week with its large debut too if it hadn't been for streaming.

I think maybe Payphone and Wide Awake would've got #1 without streaming at some point. And Whistle might've been #1 this week without streaming aswell, I'm not sure, but that would've been at least 2 extra #1s, possibly 3.

Even ignoring all that, it logicially makes sense when you think about it that streaming will decrease the amount of songs that reach #1. I think it's a good thing that they're including it in the chart now though.

I want Lights at #1 it could break the record for the longest climb to number one, Payphone is decreasing on digital, on demand and radio so Ellie may pass them and if she pass Katy Perry on radio then Ellie may go #3 but I doubt she can pass Flo Rida or Carly

Actually "Payphone" would have never gotten No. 1. It would have debuted at No. 2 behind Gotye with the 493,000 open. Using the old formula, that is. The reason is because its sales/airplay never matched up. As the radio was blowing up, the sales were continually slipping. Plus Gotye was always way too strong in both.

Gotye and Carly would have switched at the same time under the old formula as well.

"Wide Awake"'s only chance at No. 1 was last week, actually. It and "CMM" both had the same amount of points under the old formula, which at that point the usual 5% streaming would've come into play. Carly probably still would've blocked.

So in actuality, only difference in these last few No. 1's would have been "Boyfriend" topping the chart when it debuted. fun., Carly and Gotye have just been really strong in radio and sales.

I think we'll really be able to define how much streaming effects the top slot after "CMM" dies out. The way these three monster songs have performed so far show no difference whether streaming weighed more or not.

It probably will have a longer run at #1, but that won't guarantee more points overall. For instance, 'Poker Face' was ranked higher than 'I Gotta Feeling' on 2009's year end chart, even though the former spent one week at #1 and the latter reigned for 14 weeks.

Gotye just passed the 6 million mark, so in my estimates, it'll take Carly at least 10 weeks to catch up. And even if she does catch up by the end of the year, Gotye still sold more at its peak than Carly did at hers, not to mention the fact that he peaked higher on radio. She might surpass Gotye in year- end sales if she continues to sell steadily throughout the rest of the year, but I still think that he has the "Number One Song of the Year" title in the bag.

Then again, maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part. I loved STIUTK the first time I heard it and it hasn't really worn on me since, whereas I got sick of CMM in record time.