What will happen to Hot 100 when subscription > download?
It's only 4-5 years away in my opinion. Already happened in Sweden where Spotify is 84% and Itunes is 16%.
http://www.ifpi.org/content/library/...nd_figures.pdf
Quote:
Subscription has caught on exceptionally well in some markets, particularly in
Scandinavia. In Sweden, for example, subscription accounted for 84 per cent of
digital revenues in the first ten months of 2011, boosted by its national champion
Spotify. Other markets saw sharp growth in subscription revenues, such as France
with growth of more than 90 per cent in the first 11 months of 2011
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Quote:
2010 Actual: 8.2 million paid subscribers according to IFPI
2011 Actual: 13.4 million paid subscribers (65% increase) according to IFPI
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Let's assume that subscription will grow at the rate of 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% in the next 4 years
2010: 8.2 mil paid subscribers (actual)
2011: 13.4 mil paid subscribers (actual) at
65% growth
2012: 20.1 mil paid subscribers (at 50% growth)
2013: 28.14 mil paid subscribers (at 40% growth)
2014: 36.58 mil paid subscribers (at 30% growth)
2015: 43.90 mil paid subscribers (at 20% growth)
Spotify added over 2 million paid subscribers in the last 12 months (more than 160,000 paid subscribers per month).
January, 2010:------------ 250,000 paying subscribers
March 17, 2010:----------- 320,000
July 20, 2010: ---------------- 500,000
December 8, 2010: ------ 750,000
March 8, 2011:--------------- 1,000,000
July 14, 2011: -----------------1,600,000
Sept 21, 2011: ---------------- 2,000,000
Nov 23, 2011: ------------------2,500,000
Jan 26, 2012: -------------------3,000,000 paying subscribers
With more smartphone on the market (about 40% of all phones right now) will only fuel music subscription growth.