2016 ATLANTIC & EASTERN PACIFIC SEASONS BEGIN JUNE 30, 2016!
THIS YEAR'S CYCLONE NAMES
Atlantic
Alex AL-leks
Bonnie BAH-nee
Colin KAH-lihn
Danielle dan-YELL
Earl URR-ull
Fiona fee-OH-nuh
Gaston ga-STAWN
Hermine her-MEEN
Ian EE-an
Julia JOO-lee-uh
Karl KAR-ull
Lisa LEE-suh
Matthew MATH-yoo
Nicole nih-KOHL
Otto AHT-toh
Paula PAHL-luh
Richard RIH-churd
Shary SHAHR-ee
Tobias toh-BEE-uss
Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Walter WALL-tur
Eastern Pacific
2016
Agatha A-guh-thuh
Blas blahs
Celia SEEL-yuh
Darby DAR-bee
Estelle eh-STELL
Frank frank
Georgette jor-JET
Howard HOW-urd
Ivette ee-VET
Javier hahv-YAIR
Kay kay
Lester LESS-tur
Madeline MAD-eh-luhn
Newton NOO-tuhn
Orlene or-LEEN
Paine payne
Roslyn RAWZ-luhn
Seymour SEE-mor
Tina TEE-nuh
Virgil VUR-jill
Winifred WIN-ih-fred
Xavier ZAY-vee-ur
Yolanda yo-LAHN-da
Zeke zeek
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have risen to T2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is held
at 35 kt for this advisory. With relatively light shear and sea surface temperatures around 29C, Amanda is forecast to continue strengthening at least for the next 3 days or so. The intensity guidance has trended upward, and the LGEM and HWRF have now come in line with the SHIPS and GFDL models by showing Amanda reaching hurricane status in a few days.
It doesn't have the most well-defined center, but it's moving slowly northwest into an area without much wind shear. Who knows if it will rapidly intensify though, I'm not betting on it because of its slow motion (3kt) causing upwelling. Hurricane Leslie in the Atlantic last year was a good example of upwelling inhibiting a cyclone from strengthening.
It doesn't have the most well-defined center, but it's moving slowly northwest into an area without much wind shear. Who knows if it will rapidly intensify though, I'm not betting on it because of its slow motion (3kt) causing upwelling. Hurricane Leslie in the Atlantic last year was a good example of upwelling inhibiting a cyclone from strengthening.
Same with me (the hobby comment)!!!
I think the category 1 prediction is appropriate. Also, it seems to be a little early in the season for rapid intensification to take place.
I think the category 1 prediction is appropriate. Also, it seems to be a little early in the season for rapid intensification to take place.
Yeah, I can see it getting to 85mph but not much higher than that honestly. At the end of the 5-day forecast period there does appear to be an entrance into climatologically colder waters which should cause it to drop back down to a moderate tropical storm.
The faster Amanda moves northwestward, the faster it enters a region of drier air, and combined with colder waters and increased shear I think this thing could spin down pretty quickly in a week's time.
Now that Amanda is developing inner-core structure, it seems likely that the cyclone will be able to take advantage of the favorable environment and intensify, possibly rapidly, during the next day or so. The SHIPS model shows the shear remaining 10 kt or less for the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS RI index shows a 58 percent probability of a 30-kt intensity increase in the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted sharply upward and shows Amanda becoming a hurricane by 24 hours.
An image of Amanda taken at 03:00 UTC on 24 May.
Wow. Amanda is for real
Rapid intensification looking more likely here in May
The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70 percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours, with Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical wind shear environment. The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble models also call for rapid strengthening. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for 24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more than currently forecast.
CDO becoming better defined. The 2014 equivalent of Miriam?
