[Ramcoro]

Originally posted by hooky

So why is Hillary polling so well? Don't give me an answer like "because she's the better candidate ". I want to know reasons why she's doing well. Is it because it's "her turn"? Do her policies resonate better with Dems? Did Millenials give up on voting? Are older people trying to prevent a Bernie nom? Are people afraid of socialism-related ideas? Could it even be because people want to see a female president?

Originally posted by hooky

Do these polls include only likely voters or do they include less frequently voting Dems and independents as well?

A large number of independents voting could result in a Sanders victory.

1) Polls generally are likely voters. You can click on each individual poll and they usually break down by percentage how many are "definitely going to primary/caucus" and how many are "likely". Usually if someone says "unlikely" their choice is discarded in the official poll.

2) As to why Hillary is winning. I think it could be a combination of the factors you stated. Honestly, I still think the biggest reason is race and ethnicity. We have been saying that for the past 6 months. Also, something that isn't mentioned a whole lot is voter fatigue. Sanders relies on people being angry with the system, and Hillary relies on people being content with incremental progress. A lot of democrats aren't angry like they were in 2008 after eight years of Bush.. We are going to have 8 years of Obama, which is why Republicans are angry and passionate. A lot of Dems are happy or mildly content with Obama. Those Dems that are angry generally point their frustration at the Republicans in congress not the White House. This is particularly true with African Americans. Polls show that Obama still has a very high approval rating among African Americans. A Sanders campaign would do even better in a 2008 situation (when we are trying to retake the White House).

The following articles go into depth with this.

Clinton, Sanders, and Southern Voters
Why Clinton Is Connecting With Black Voters and Sanders Isn't

Originally posted by Mickey

Oklahoma is really white compared to the other southern states on Super Tuesday (Arkansas is comparable, but Hillary was first lady there)

68.7% non-Hispanic white isn't that white, is it?

[Damien M]

Originally posted by Shawn

New Florida GOP Primary Poll - Quinnipiac - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-e...ReleaseID=2327

Trump - 44%
Rubio - 28%
Cruz - 12%
Kasich - 7%
Carson - 4%

I'm wondering how the 'establishment' (lol) will stop Trump considering he's leading in all but one of the Super Tuesday states.
I also can't wait for Rubio to spin his likely 3rd place finishes into some sort of a 'win'

[Stoner]

Originally posted by hooky

So why is Hillary polling so well? Don't give me an answer like "because she's the better candidate ". I want to know reasons why she's doing well. Is it because it's "her turn"? Do her policies resonate better with Dems? Did Millenials give up on voting? Are older people trying to prevent a Bernie nom? Are people afraid of socialism-related ideas? Could it even be because people want to see a female president?

Well for me, its mainly that her experience and qualifications are greater than any other candidate. Also i do not like the opening the door for socialism to take over the US.

[Bloo]

Originally posted by hooky

So why is Hillary polling so well? Don't give me an answer like "because she's the better candidate ". I want to know reasons why she's doing well. Is it because it's "her turn"? Do her policies resonate better with Dems? Did Millenials give up on voting? Are older people trying to prevent a Bernie nom? Are people afraid of socialism-related ideas? Could it even be because people want to see a female president?

Most of these states are Southern states... Southern states are more conservative, even in my own state (Kentucky), Hillary has spoken about issues that relate to our own struggles more directly. An example would be how she's spoken about socioeconomic inequality for coal-mining areas, which is a very prominent issue in KY (it's why Eastern Kentucky is practically a third world country). Also, her approach is less radical than Bernie's and most Southern states are more supportive of incremental change as opposed to sudden change.

[Ramcoro]

Originally posted by foxaylove

Not all of those polls are up to date though. He's polling close in Colorado and Minnesota as well (two caucus states). He's also doing well in Massachusetts, meaning that may bold well for some NE states (not all, but some). If people are expecting a TKO on Super Tuesday, y'all gonna have to continue to wait. He has to complete in the mid - late March big prize states like Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Illinois. If nothing by then, it'll be an inevitable type of situation after that.




It's a combination of factors. Most traditional democrats know Hillary Clinton and not so much Bernie. Familiarity for some people is a good thing while it's not such a good thing to others. For me personally, I just think she the better and more "well-rounded" candidate. I feel confident with her on things almost across the board whereas Bernie, he has his areas (National Security/Foreign Policy being the main one). Plus, some people are looking for a pragmatist. That right there aligns with how Hillary has sold herself as someone with a pragmatic approach and mindset, while they mold Bernie into a person with unrealistic ambitions in a GOP controlled congress.

The only polls that aren't recent is Colorado. Considering the demographics of that state evening if Bernie polls off a win it'll be more like Nevada than New Hemisphere. Same with Massachusetts. Additionally, most of these polls were conducted after NH but before Hillary's Nevada win. That coupled with S.C. could build momentum for Hillary. Finally, many of Hillary's leads are huge, like +20 points and in delegate rich states, i.e. Texas.

I'm not saying it's going to be a TKO, but if Sanders only wins Vermont and maybe two other states on Super Tuesday, then it will be hard for him to make his campaign seem anything other than an insurgent campaign. Delegate math just wouldn't add up in his favor, and that is without super delegates.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by hooky

So why is Hillary polling so well? Don't give me an answer like "because she's the better candidate ". I want to know reasons why she's doing well. Is it because it's "her turn"? Do her policies resonate better with Dems? Did Millenials give up on voting? Are older people trying to prevent a Bernie nom? Are people afraid of socialism-related ideas? Could it even be because people want to see a female president?

Originally posted by hooky

Do these polls include only likely voters or do they include less frequently voting Dems and independents as well?

A large number of independents voting could result in a Sanders victory.

If you're talking about recently, it's because every state she's polling super well in has large groups of minority support. And because of that she has huge leads in the state. These states are also low in liberal-ness and higher in moderate or conservatism. Could also be slight momentum she has she got from Nevada too

And polls like this includes democrats, republicans who could vote for the dems in an open primary, and independents as well. But you won't find many states with 40%+ independents like New Hampshire

[BlueTimberwolf]

Hilary has older voter on lock, and they vote in greater numbers

[Jonna Lee]

Originally posted by Ramcoro

Super Tuesday Polls

Not Bernie possibly losing every state except his home state.

Interesting that Oklahoma is the only "competitive" state for him outside N.E. Why OK?

bernie is NOT gonna lose MA lol

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Jonna Lee

bernie is NOT gonna lose MA lol

Yeah if I had to bet I'd bet on him. But it may not be so certain. He's only averaging 3.5 points ahead of her if you consider his recent 7pt lead and their tie in the last two polls there

[RatedG²]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-these-states/

A new piece on Sanders by Silver. Have not read it myself but it looks interesting

[iamvladd]

Originally posted by Shawn

New Florida GOP Primary Poll - Quinnipiac - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-e...ReleaseID=2327

Trump - 44%
Rubio - 28%
Cruz - 12%
Kasich - 7%
Carson - 4%

Trump is going to the convention lmao!

[MAKSIM]

If Bernie loses the state home to Elizabeth Warren as a senator, then I would be very surprised.

[RatedG²]

New Wisconsin poll

Sanders 44
Clinton 43

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by MAKSIM

If Bernie loses the state home to Elizabeth Warren as a senator, then I would be very surprised.

True. The states Sanders has to win on Super Tuesday

VT, MN, CO, MA. Also probably OK & TN.

VT by 83 points
MN by 21 points
CO by 11 points
MA by 11 points
OK by 4 points
TN by 2 points

If Clinton takes OK, TN, and one of the first four states in that list, it's pretty much over for Sanders, Silver says

[Temporal]

I love Bernie but I really believe he's going to be thrashed on Tuesday, like win 3,4 states best case scenario.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by ClarksonSlays

I love Bernie but I really believe he's going to be thrashed on Tuesday, like win 3,4 states best case scenario.

Well he only needs 4 states. 6 if other states are very bad

[Marvin]

Originally posted by Reza

Im sorry but the user Marvin is a biT obsessed with Hillary. can she get a time out from this thread?

Originally posted by Reza

k then maybe i'll take a time out from the thread. His obsession is making me uncomfortable.

[Jonna Lee]

Originally posted by RatedG²

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-these-states/

A new piece on Sanders by Silver. Have not read it myself but it looks interesting

boiling hot truth tea

[Butters]

has this been posted?https://www.facebook.com/NowThisElec...type=2&theater

[Ramcoro]

Originally posted by Jonna Lee

bernie is NOT gonna lose MA lol

Objective data shows the state is competitive. Note in my previous post I said he could possibly lose every state except Vermont. Only Vermont is guaranteed for him.

The most recent poll in Minnesota showed Clinton at a huge lead. That was back in January, and I understand Nevada showed Clinton with a similar lead about the same time before its primary. However, if Bernie keeps losing like he did in Nevada, he can't win the nomination. Simple math.