[Benzene]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08...mp-in-georgia/

New poll has Clinton +4 in Georgia.

[King Maxx]

Originally posted by Benzene

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08...mp-in-georgia/

New poll has Clinton +4 in Georgia.

Yep she's about to campaign heavily there. All of Colorado and Virginia's spending will go to Georgia and Arizona now.

She's winning the presidency. No way Trump comes back from this deficit.

[Benzene]

Originally posted by King Maxx

Yep she's about to campaign heavily there. All of Colorado and Virginia's spending will go to Georgia and Arizona now.

She's winning the presidency. No way Trump comes back from this deficit.

Ehh, still too early to say that. If these polls are the same in early September, then yeah the race is pretty much over.

[King Maxx]

Originally posted by Benzene

Ehh, still too early to say that. If these polls are the same in early September, then yeah the race is pretty much over.

Hillary has to literally blow the rest of the campaign for her not to win. I get the "let's not be quick to declare victory" but I mean the map was always in her favor.

She was crowned when she won the New York primary tbh.

EDIT: There's a good, but slim chance Hillary hits 400 electoral votes.

[Swine]

Originally posted by King Maxx

America has been a two-party system for over two centuries for a reason.
===
I don't believe in this "high poll numbers show overconfidence". No Hillary supporter is staying home because 1) voting for her is historic 2) we never trusted polls 3) the satisfaction in saying they were the ones to stop Trump.

And she's not winning Alaska.

I don't see what reason. Republicans have a big division now. An actually big division:
Trump: isolationist, not supportive of military, anti-globalism, anti-immigration, religious/social/fiscal conservativeness not important
Rest of the party: globalist, military crucial, not necessarily anti-immigration, freedom of religion crucial, an actual idea behind everything (conservatism), fiscal conservatism crucial
It's not Sanders vs Clinton, who agree on almost everything and share the same values. Trump's camp and the other camp within the Republican party literally disagree on everything of importance.


And if Hillary's polling at a guaranteed win it will cause more to stay at home. Only a few percentage are acfually passionate and would vote anyways. Most don't care that much and bad weather is enough for millions to abstain.

[RihsusChrist(ATG)]

Originally posted by Dessy Fenix

I know plenty of people near the poverty line that only take public transportation daily...

Not in rural areas they don't...not everybody lives in the suburbs/city.

Originally posted by Raster

If Trump drops out, his rabid supporters will stop caring about the election and won't vote for the new republican candidate. The GOP knows not to underestimate Trump's fanbase size.

Yes they would...especially if the new candidate make a convincing pitch to "blue collar" workers...the only sizable demographic Trump has left. They are not rabid, they just see all their jobs in steel/coal country evaporating and just want someone to give a damn about them.

[Benzene]

Originally posted by King Maxx

Hillary has to literally blow the rest of the campaign for her not to win. I get the "let's not be quick to declare victory" but I mean the map was always in her favor.

She was crowned when she won the New York primary tbh.

No doubt Hillary has always been favored, but the media loves a horserace and will do what they need to do to get one. I'm waiting for the next "scandal."

Originally posted by Cupid

So what states is she predicted to flip? Have they always been red?

Some traditionally red states that could flip this year are Georgia, Arizona, and Utah.

[King Maxx]

Originally posted by Benzene

No doubt Hillary has always been favored, but the media loves a horserace and will do what they need to do to get one. I'm waiting for the next "scandal."



Some traditionally red states that could flip this year are Georgia, Arizona, and Utah.

And Missouri.
===
Again, overconfidence won't be a factor. People want to vote against Trump and badly. They don't wanna take any chances even if she was ahead by 50 points.

[TaggedGalaxy]

I'm hoping this election will be Reagan sized blowout

The last time a candidate has polled this low led to his opponent carrying 49 states If that happens again

[King Maxx]

Originally posted by Swine

I don't see what reason. Republicans have a big division now. An actually big division:
Trump: isolationist, not supportive of military, anti-globalism, anti-immigration, religious/social/fiscal conservativeness not important
Rest of the party: globalist, military crucial, not necessarily anti-immigration, freedom of religion crucial, an actual idea behind everything (conservatism), fiscal conservatism crucial
It's not Sanders vs Clinton, who agree on almost everything and share the same values. Trump's camp and the other camp within the Republican party literally disagree on everything of importance.


And if Hillary's polling at a guaranteed win it will cause more to stay at home. Only a few percentage are acfually passionate and would vote anyways. Most don't care that much and bad weather is enough for millions to abstain.

Some historians have suggested that two-party systems promote centrism and encourages political parties to find common positions which appeal to wide swaths of the electorate. It can lead to political stability[3] which leads, in turn, to economic growth.

That's why. Can you imagine if 3-4 different parties all with different views had a lot of political power? Two parties is already a mess to get progress.

[RihsusChrist(ATG)]

Originally posted by Benzene

No doubt Hillary has always been favored, but the media loves a horserace and will do what they need to do to get one. I'm waiting for the next "scandal."

Some traditionally red states that could flip this year are Georgia, Arizona, and Utah.

Those mormons despise Trump...

I mean maybe the GOP would trot 2012 nominee Mitt Romney back out, if Trump were to make his exit from the race.

Kasich, Ryan, and even Cruz wouldn't want to diminish their prospects for 2020. Romney would put civility back into the election, and position himself as the "I Told You So" candidate. If Mitt wins, then the GOP would be happy...if he lost, he would be labeled as a "statesman" for trying to step in and save the party last minute. It would be a win/win for Romney. He'd look good either way.

[@michael]

Hillary +4 in new Georgia poll

Well, Trump did say he would expand the map. I just don't think he knew he would be expanding it for Hillary

[@michael]

Originally posted by Benzene

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08...mp-in-georgia/

New poll has Clinton +4 in Georgia.

Oop, I'm a flop

[Benzene]

Originally posted by RihsusChrist(ATG)

Those mormons despise Trump...

I mean maybe the GOP would trot 2012 nominee Mitt Romney back out, if Trump were to make his exit from the race.

Kasich, Ryan, and even Cruz wouldn't want to diminish their prospects for 2020. Romney would put civility back into the election, and position himself as the "I Told You So" candidate. If Mitt wins, then the GOP would be happy...if he lost, he would be labeled as a "statesman" for trying to step in and save the party last minute. It would be a win/win for Romney. He'd look good either way.

Utah legit might be the first state ever to give votes to a non-major party. Mormons hate Trump be can't rock with Clinton's liberalism either.

History is going to look pretty kindly on anyone who denounced Trump. Poor Paul Ryan.

[midnightdawn]

Originally posted by TaggedGalaxy

I'm hoping this election will be Reagan sized blowout

The last time a candidate has polled this low led to his opponent carrying 49 states If that happens again

Hillary is nowhere near as popular as Reagan. The polls will even out again like they have after each time for the past 6 months as Hillary's convention bounce fades.

[Jacketh]

Its over for Trump. I expect him to pull it back somewhat, but seriously. He was already at a disadvantage because of the Electoral College giving the Dems an advantage. Can anyone look at the results in 2012 and tell me what states Trump will take from the Dems?

No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. And he isn't getting Ohio now.

No chance what. so. ever. He'll keep a hold on the states that will never vote Dem, but apart from that, it'll be a blood bath.

[@michael]

Originally posted by Benzene

Utah legit might be the first state ever to give votes to a non-major party. Mormons hate Trump be can't rock with Clinton's liberalism either.

History is going to look pretty kindly on anyone who denounced Trump. Poor Paul Ryan.

American Independent Party says "Hi", sis!

[Benzene]

Originally posted by @michael

American Independent Party says "Hi", sis!

Which election was that?

[@michael]

Originally posted by Benzene

Which election was that?

1968!

[Benzene]

Originally posted by @michael

1968!

Thanks for the info.