I think (I'm actually sure) it will end up like U&I vs SLY. Gaga started to smash first and quickly jumped over Adele, but then stalled as quickly. But then suddenly Adele unleashed her full power and steamrolled over everyone with her 4m+ updates.
This is with almost zero promotion and without a video or even an official release in most countries, it was just picked up by Europe. It had one exclusive performance on its own in the UK as promo, two months before actual release, and everyone has the album here so singles are essentially doomed.
I think it was already nearly platinum in the US before release anyway, so we can expect a smash. The lyrics video alone has 70 million views, and I think radio is bound to love it.
