Discussion: U.S. Election 2016 - Page 71

-Derek

Quote:

Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ

I need a poll to come out forecasting a 5+ lead for Hillary Clinton... Ugh I hate the fact that its so devastatingly close.

benchmark politics (which has been spot on with nearly all the contests) has their model at +8 Clinton.

King Maxx

Quote:

Originally posted by RatedG²

I hope one day Puerto Rico can vote for the president.

I also hope he gets crushed there for his tactics

It would need to become a state, and they have a major party that doesn't want to become one. The other major party does. The US Congress (especially Republicans) probably won't vote on doing that with this $75B debt they have.

So keep dreaming for another decade AT LEAST.

RatedG²

Quote:

Originally posted by King Maxx

It would need to become a state, and they have a major party that don't want to become one. The other major party does. The US Congress (especially Republicans) probably won't vote on doing that with this $75B debt they have.

So keep dreaming for another decade AT LEAST.

Given the population too it would have a lot of electors that will almost certainly vote exclusively democratic. I doubt the republicans would want that.

I know it won't happen soon I just hope it happens one day

RatedG²

Quote:

Originally posted by -Derek

benchmark politics (which has been spot on with nearly all the contests) has their model at +8 Clinton.

Eh. They were wrong on quite a few states, one as recently as Oregon

They have been good but not THAT good

King Maxx

Oregon was a weird state. There were like 2 polls and she was ahead, but we ALL knew the demographics favored him. We can say the same about CA. The thing is that the demographic is so diverse that it will literally depend on who shows up (that's why she is winning by 5-10 points with likely voters)

Benzene

Benchmark isn't great for non-closed primaries.

Benzene

And while I would like Bernard to lose CA, ultimately it doesn't matter. It'd be nice for him to have one less thing to brag about but he would cling onto SOMETHING regardless of the results.

RatedG²

Quote:

Originally posted by Benzene

Benchmark isn't great for non-closed primaries.

Yeah. They were good for all of the closed ones but the ones that were wrong all happened to be semi closed or open.

Caucuses too were off. They do have other good tidbits of information though

HeyMr.DJ

CNN reporting that Hillary is the winner of the Puerto Rico contest and that she may potentially clinch the nomination tonight.

Marvin

Ready for California

HeyMr.DJ

Please update OP

"Clinton wins Virgin Island & Puerto Rico, she is on the verge of clinching the Democratic Nomination."

Retro

Quote:

Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ

CNN reporting that Hillary is the winner of the Puerto Rico contest and that she may potentially clinch the nomination tonight.

It's not possible if supers don't back her tonight - he's won at least 14 delegates there unless he unexpectedly goes inviable, so she needs about 8 to 14 supers to back her to clinch the nomination.

But yeah, she's already won 31 there, so she's just 29 away with 15 more PR delegates to be allocated. It's over.

King Maxx

Quote:

Originally posted by Marvin

Ready for California

We all are. Bernie is done.

HeyMr.DJ

Quote:

Originally posted by Retro

It's not possible if supers don't back her tonight - he's won at least 14 delegates there unless he unexpectedly goes inviable, so she needs about 8 to 14 supers to back her to clinch the nomination.

But yeah, she's already won 31 there, so she's just 29 away with 15 more PR delegates to be allocated. It's over.

I am going to bet that super delegates will help her cross the threshold either tonight or tomorrow!!!

Retro

Quote:

Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ

I am going to bet that super delegates will help her cross the threshold either tonight or tomorrow!!!

I agree if it's equal to or less than 15 necessary. I think that they'll wait until Tuesday if it's over 20. If it's in between, I'm not sure.

Benzene

I don't want her to clinch tonight. I want it to be when NJ closes.

Retro

Quote:

Originally posted by Benzene

I don't want her to clinch tonight. I want it to be when NJ closes.

The only thing I think is holding anyone back is the perception that the Tuesday voters' ballots won't matter and the risk of reducing turnout for Hillary if an announcement is made; however, I also think it would reduce Bernie turnout more.

We'll see what happens. I'm fine with Tuesday, but to have her potentially just 8 delegates away until then...

HeyMr.DJ

Quote:

Originally posted by Benzene

I don't want her to clinch tonight. I want it to be when NJ closes.

No matter, what they will celebrate after New Jersey? Why not at least let them make the announcement tonight or tomorrow? It could really help her win California on Tuesday!!

jpow

WAIT can she really clinch the nomination tonight?

King Maxx

Quote:

Originally posted by Vision

This is confusing, so are all the results in?

No. Only like 12%, but I guess she's ahead by so much they can confirm the win already.

So we won't get the final vote count and delegate count for hours. It's going to be a long night. Just come back tomorrow.