So Carly stans, how sure are you that this will smash?
About 60%. Carly has a few things going for her with this single release.
For one, she has the "hype" of having a comeback single. There's going to be the gimmick of, "Hey, you remember the girl behind Call Me Maybe? Well she's back with a song that's even catchier!" that I've already seen being used by many online media sources. And I think she's largely living up to the hype of having a good comeback single.
As well as this, Carly has the advantage of releasing at a time when there really aren't too many big single releases. Uptown Funk and Thinking Out Loud are bound to be running out of steam soon and Taylor and Meghan don't look like they're going to be able to get any more massive singles from their respective albums, and Rihanna's era's already off to a rather shaky start. There's a hole in the new singles market at the moment which Carly could easily fill.
Finally, this song could have great longevity and last into Summer 2015. Fancy by Iggy Azalea was released in mid-February and still became a Summer hit, entering the Top 10 three months later. Plus the video, with Justin Bieber and Tom Hanks and the big dance scenes, could very easily go viral.
So it has all of the right things. But if it doesn't get much promo or just gets overlooked, then it could be American Girl 2.0 and flop even with the previous #1 hits and celebrity collaborations.
Yeah, I just don't want you guys to end up disappointed
The video having insane replay value/going viral plus a cute radio deal could get a decent top 10 hit though, and if that succeeds the follow up single could be even bigger