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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueTimberwolf
Pretty sure Trump is leading the polls in Alabama though.
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If he was chosen, he would easily pick up those states whose contestants said something that caused a twitter firestorm: Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 16,870
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Im ready for Trump to mowdown these talking heads tonight.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...3b9_story.html
Clinton’s support erodes sharply among Democratic women
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Hillary Rodham Clinton is suffering a rapid erosion of support among Democratic women — the voters long presumed to be the bedrock in her bid to become the nation’s first female president.
The numbers in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll are an alarm siren: Where 71 percent of Democratic-leaning female voters said in July that they expected to vote for Clinton, only 42 percent do now, a drop of 29 percentage points in eight weeks.
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Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
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Quote:
While everyone else was talking about her authenticity, Hillary Clinton changed her position
The revelation that Hillary Clinton is planning to be more spontaneous and authentic brought a booming collective laugh from Republicans, some Democrats, and opinion writers last week. The group guffaw drowned out a related shift in her positioning that is far more important: Now she wants to be known as a moderate.
"You know, I get accused of being kind of moderate and center," Clinton said in Ohio September 10, according to CNN. "I plead guilty."
That's a tire-squealing turn from the first five months of her campaign, when Clinton emphasized her progressive credentials. She built a policy platform significantly to the left of where many Democrats expected her to stand — in favor of new regulations of the financial services industry, "ending the era of mass incarceration," and reforming campaign finance laws, to name a few items on her agenda. The focus on populism was described as a newfound affinity for the left, a return to liberal roots, an effort to crowd out the competition, a general election strategy based on energizing Democrats, or some combination thereof. The truth is that Clinton's record is pretty liberal, except when it comes to national defense and trade.
Now she's pivoting back toward the centrist label that defined her husband's campaigns and presidency. The obvious reason for Clinton to switch tacks now is that her initial strategy didn't work: On the strength of backing from liberals, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has surged to leads in New Hampshire and Iowa. That's a good reason for her to shake things up a bit, but it's only part of a story that is more about drawing a contrast with Sanders, sending a signal to her supporters that she's ready to really fight for the nomination, and making sure that she's comfortable in the political skin she's wearing for the rest of the campaign.
"When we start the debate, we will start to draw contrasts not only as I do all the time with Republicans but where appropriate with my Democratic competitors," Clinton told reporters Monday, referring to the launch of a series of six Democratic debates next month.
While one could spend a lot of time criticizing Clinton for being "calculating" — a word that often is spelled "strategic" and considered a compliment when applied to a male candidate for the presidency — it's far more interesting and instructive to explore all the reasons for this pivot, especially because it's one that is likely to define the rest of her candidacy.
Clinton's attempt to be Sanders Lite didn't win love from the left
For the last two election cycles, the main knocks on Clinton from Democratic primary voters have been that she's too hawkish and that she's too close to Wall Street and corporate America. These criticisms have been translated into the shorthand that she's too moderate and definitely too willing to compromise with both Republicans and their allies in the business world.
To counter these perceptions, and to try to crowd out a credible challenge from her left, Clinton emphasized populist elements of her platform. With the help of scholars from the progressive Roosevelt Institute, she fashioned a campaign launch speech that focused on the liberal domestic principles articulated by Franklin Roosevelt in his "Four Freedoms" speech, and rolled out an economic agenda based on the premise that fairness in the economic system would fuel growth. It was endorsed by liberal economists Joseph Stiglitz and Alan Blinder.
But rather than attracting diehard liberals, Clinton's tack served to reinforce the legitimacy of Sanders's ideas and left her offering Bernie Lite to a Democratic primary electorate that has only become more populist since the financial crisis that struck the US during and after her 2008 presidential campaign. Sanders, who believes fairness is more important than growth, is the real deal for the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. Not only are his policy prescriptions a few ticks to the left of Clinton's — he's for a $15 minimum wage, he's against big trade deals, and he wants to reinstate the Glass-Steagall firewall between investment and commercial banks — but they reinforce his authenticity factor because he hasn't shaded these long-held beliefs to attract voters.
"While Sanders's ideology might easily fit into a box, Clinton's does not — she's progressive on some issues but moderate on others, like tax policy," said Ben LaBolt, who worked as a communications aide for the Obama campaign and the White House. "That's less easy to squeeze onto a bumper sticker, but ultimately consistent with where many voters are."
To the extent that Clinton might have hoped to win over some of the populist "Warren wing" of the Democratic Party with this Bernie Lite agenda, there aren't a lot of new policy ideas for her to roll out. More to the point, it just isn't working for her. If anything, she's bolstered Sanders's validity and authenticity and, by doing that, has shown herself to be a poor imitation. This shift back to the middle ground seems likely to be a permanent one because, with voters saying they think she's not honest or trustworthy, Clinton can't afford to be seen as zig-zagging back and forth on how she perceives herself.
The shift is partly about portraying Sanders as too extreme
Clinton's approach to policymaking is consensus-driven enough to infuriate every ideologue in the Democratic Party. She'll never please the hard left because she seeks compromise and political buy-in from stakeholders, including wealthy donors to her campaign, whose priorities are anathema to many Democratic voters.
Here's how she described her approach last week: "I think sometimes it's important when you are in the elected arena — you try to figure out, how do you bring people together to get something done instead of just standing on the opposite sides yelling at each other." She continued, "Some people want it to be about everything other than what they would do when they are president."
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Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
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Hillary Clinton is still the candidate to beat
The headlines screaming “Clinton’s Support Erodes” are true, but only in a relative sense. In the contest for the Democratic nomination, according to the polls, she has slid all the way from “prohibitive favorite” to something like “strong favorite” — not bad, given the way she has hobbled herself with the e-mail scandal.
Eugene Robinson writes a twice-a-week column on politics and culture, contributes to the PostPartisan blog, and hosts a weekly online chat with readers. In a three-decade career at The Post, Robinson has been city hall reporter, city editor, foreign correspondent in Buenos Aires and London, foreign editor, and assistant managing editor in charge of the paper’s Style section. View Archive
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A new Post-ABC News poll gives a clear view of Clinton’s status. Among registered voters who are Democrats or lean toward that party, Clinton is at 42 percent while Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is at 24 percent and Vice President Joe Biden at 21 percent. Since July, according to the poll, Clinton’s support has fallen 21 points. So yes, her campaign has reason to be concerned. But not alarmed.
The saving grace for Clinton is that only half of that lost support has gone to Sanders, who is running a smart and effective campaign, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire. The other half has gone to Biden, who is not running a campaign at all — and may never do so.
In his recent media appearances, Biden has revealed his profound grief over the death of his son Beau. No one who watched him last week on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” could come away thinking that Biden is eager to run.
Is Joe Biden stealing Hillary Clinton's 2016 thunder?
Play Video1:18
In the 2016 race for the White House, some frontrunners are gaining ground, while others are slipping. From Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton, who is staying strong in the polls? We break down the big takeaways from the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. (Julie Percha/The Washington Post)
“I don’t think any man or woman should run for president unless, number one, they know exactly why they would want to be president and, two, they can look at folks out there and say, ‘I promise you, you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy and my passion to do this,’ ” he told Colbert. “And I’d be lying if I said that I knew I was there.”
If you take Biden at his word and leave him out of the equation, Clinton’s support leaps to 56 percent, according to the Post-ABC News poll, while Sanders’s increases only slightly to 28 percent.
The challenge for Sanders is that while he is hugely popular with young voters and progressives, he has not connected with other key segments of the Democratic Party coalition. In August, a Gallup survey found that Clinton had a favorable rating of 80 percent among African Americans compared to just 23 percent for Sanders. This doesn’t reflect any particular antipathy toward the Vermont senator. Rather, it’s because just 33 percent of African Americans told Gallup they were familiar with him.
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Am I ignoring the big picture? Have I somehow missed the fact that the major themes of the campaign thus far have been disgust with politics as usual and rejection of establishment candidates?
No, it’s just that I believe the internal dynamics of the two parties are quite different. Clinton fatigue among Democrats is one thing, but the total anarchy in the Republican Party is quite another.
Back to the Post-ABC News poll: A full 33 percent of Republican or GOP-leaning registered voters support billionaire Donald Trump for their party’s nomination and another 20 percent support retired surgeon Ben Carson. That’s more than half the party rejecting not only the establishment’s favored choices but any contender who has held political office.
Indeed, when asked what kind of person they would like to see as the next president, more than 70 percent of Democratic-leaning voters said they want “someone with experience in how the political system works.” But more than half of GOP-leaning voters, and a stunning 64 percent of self-described “conservative” Republicans, want “someone from outside the existing political establishment.”
This is terrible news for Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and the other current or former officeholders in the GOP race. It’s good news for Clinton, because if she gets the nomination she will likely face either a novice whose qualifications and temperament are in question or a veteran politician struggling to consolidate his own fractious party’s support.
All of this assumes that Clinton doesn’t find a way to defeat herself. And yes, I realize this is a dangerous year for making assumptions.
I’m hard-pressed to imagine how Clinton and her team could have done a worse job of handling the controversy over her State Department e-mails. Instead of getting the whole truth out at once, they have let it emerge ever so slowly — and kept a damaging story alive.
Clinton’s biggest task is clear: Get out of her own way.
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 23,857
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Debate tomorrow? Details?
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Quote:
Originally posted by dessy
Debate tomorrow? Details?
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I expect all the 1% candidates to attack Trump over and over since they have nothing lose and CNN to throw the ball to them for the alley oop.
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Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
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Quote:
Originally posted by dessy
Debate tomorrow? Details?
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Trump, Bush, Cruz, Carson, Christie, Rubio, Fiorina, Kasich, Walker, Paul @ 8PM EST
Kids table w/ Jindal, Graham, Pataki and Santorum @ 6PM EST
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Member Since: 1/4/2014
Posts: 6,751
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Quote:
Originally posted by Giselle
Trump, Bush, Cruz, Carson, Christie, Rubio, Fiorina, Kasich, Walker, Paul @ 8PM EST
Kids table w/ Jindal, Graham, Pataki and Santorum @ 6PM EST
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Too bad it's not just Trump, Bush, Fiorina, and Kasich...the other candidates have nothing constructive to offer, tbh.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 4,846
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Hillary is going to win the democratic nomination. If Democrats are stupid enough to nominate Bernie then they are handing the election to whoever makes it out of the republican clown car.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 16,870
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Trump is at a rally right now on C-Span. The crowd loves him.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 14,321
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I predict the same thing again: Trump gets most airtime and the hardest questions
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Quote:
Originally posted by LuLuDrops
I predict the same thing again: Trump gets most airtime and the hardest questions
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Trump's questions will be obscure and easily flubbable, but not so obscure they will seem biased and Jeb, Kasich, Fiorina and Rubio (media faves since they are the "moderate" okay ones and Carly is a woman) will get the softballs. Huckabee and Carson will get questions that will be soundbite bait. The others will be ignored for the most part or pitted against Trump. At the same time an anti-Trump pro-immigration ad paid for by a group Jeb Bush's son is a part of will play all through the debate. The ad basically uses Ronald Reagan to promote open borders and uses Trump "Mexican rapists" quote. Trump should be really worried and SUPER prepared.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 16,870
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Poor my racist society when Trump doesnt get the nomination.
They literally think Congress would allow his laws to pass.
I respect him for wanting the wall. He says its to stop the flow of drugs, but the government kinda wants all these drugs flowing in because it keeps the huge prison system in business.
He will dominate the debate tho I feel Carly will tug at his wig.
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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I don't know how anyone can be against a wall after what happened in Europe and they only way they could contain the migrants was a wall.
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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The Club for Growth (lobby group supporting business) just pledged to go through the whole primary with millions of dollars in ads attacking Trump in every state as the primary goes along. So ridiculous how money just infiltrates politics this way.
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Member Since: 3/1/2014
Posts: 2,096
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Quote:
Originally posted by Giselle
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Somewhere in this thread I posted that Sanders was going to drag Hillary way to far out to the left and she was going to have to make a hard pivot to the center but I never thought it would be during the primary season.
She is in trouble, planning to be more spontaneous? Who announces that? In the coming weeks I am going to be more spontaneous... Okay Hillary.
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Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chucko
Somewhere in this thread I posted that Sanders was going to drag Hillary way to far out to the left and she was going to have to make a hard pivot to the center but I never thought it would be during the primary season.
She is in trouble, planning to be more spontaneous? Who announces that? In the coming weeks I am going to be more spontaneous... Okay Hillary.
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She didn't really announce that, moreso a dumb aide rain their mouth.
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Member Since: 3/1/2014
Posts: 2,096
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Quote:
Originally posted by Giselle
She didn't really announce that, moreso a dumb aide rain their mouth.
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Right but it kind of ruined the whole thing and I'm not sure she is really the spontaneous type anyway.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 21,143
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Quote:
Originally posted by RihsusChrist(ATG)
Too bad it's not just Trump, Bush, Fiorina, and Kasich...the other candidates have nothing constructive to offer, tbh.
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Rubio is easily one of the best candidates on the Republican side, tho.
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