[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Buddha!

I posted a poll earlier (dunno if you guys saw it) but it showed Hillary gaining on Bernie in NH. She's about 15 points behind him currently.



Yes

Yep I saw. Instead of cross examining polls though I just look at the history of each individual poll. In almost every poll Hillary gained on Sanders compared to that same poll's last figures.

Didn't know it snowed. Wonder how that'll affect turnout. Hopefully it doesn't

[Retro]

Reduced turnout probably won't change the Democrat race as much as people thought it would in Iowa, at least in NH. I feel like it's a different dynamic and Sanders will likely still win even with low turnout.

[heckinglovato]

Originally posted by Buddha!

I posted a poll earlier (dunno if you guys saw it) but it showed Hillary gaining on Bernie in NH. She's about 15 points behind him currently.



Yes

Well but the RCP average has always been around 15-17 points, the ones that showed Sanders with a 30 point lead were outliers. Nate Silver still projects a 99% win for Sanders with around 15(?) points

[Retro]

Originally posted by heckinglovato

Well but the RCP average has always been around 15-17 points, the ones that showed Sanders with a 30 point lead were outliers. Nate Silver still projects a 99% win for Sanders with around 15(?) points

That will shrink IMO, as long as the debate helped her, but this is all accurate, yes.

I'd say right now that if the debate helped her, Bernie still has at least a 75% chance of winning NH. I obviously hope for Hillary to pull through but even with a significant bump in poll numbers that's incredibly unlikely.

[Buddy!]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Yep I saw. Instead of cross examining polls though I just look at the history of each individual poll. In almost every poll Hillary gained on Sanders compared to that same poll's last figures.

Didn't know it snowed. Wonder how that'll affect turnout. Hopefully it doesn't

It won't. Most of NH got like 4-5 inches

[Icarus]

Isn't Sanders a guaranteed win in NH? It's just how much he wins by that I'm interested in

[MAKSIM]

I expect Hillary to lose by around 15 percentage points. (57 to 43). If she can break 45 I could see the media spinning it for her, but anything more is a clear and resounding mandate for Bernie in New Hampshire

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Retro

That will shrink IMO, as long as the debate helped her, but this is all accurate, yes.

I'd say right now that if the debate helped her, Bernie still has at least a 75% chance of winning NH. I obviously hope for Hillary to pull through but even with a significant bump in poll numbers that's incredibly unlikely.

Sis you the new Nate Silver now? Don't try it 👀

Originally posted by Buddha!

It won't. Most of NH got like 4-5 inches

pff if it snowed 4-5 inches here my ass would stay in bed!

edit: well maybe I'd go out for Hill

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by IcarusIsFlying

Isn't Sanders a guaranteed win in NH? It's just how much he wins by that I'm interested in

I know that's a popular line many Hillsters like to use but nothing is guaranteed in politics. Anything could happen and a win is still a big thing for Sanders no matter the percentage.

He's much more likely to win (King Nate agrees) but nothing is 100%

[MAKSIM]

Not me jamming on this bus to Britney Jean and applying the lyrics to HRCs political career

I blame Foxays sig. Britney the politically hyper aware chanteuse

Edit: currently on body ache (aka blood clot 2012)

[Mike91]

The NH will be closer than these polls suggest. Polls for primaries, etc are almost never accurate.

[Mickey]

Originally posted by Retro

I'd say the CNN one with 61-30 is the biggest outlier today.

Whoops, looks like I spoke too soon, Ipsos has Clinton +3 over Sanders

[Retro]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Sis you the new Nate Silver now? Don't try it 👀

pff if it snowed 4-5 inches here my ass would stay in bed!

edit: well maybe I'd go out for Hill

My limit is 12 inches. With a foot of snow, I'd stay in even for Hill.

[Retro]

Originally posted by Mickey

Whoops, looks like I spoke too soon, Ipsos has Clinton +3 over Sanders

lokdhnfrgosoknmvf what

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Retro

My limit is 12 inches.

Well well well

[RatedG²]

Reuters: Clinton 48-45 Sanders Nationally

Trend confirmed

[Retro]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Trend confirmed

disagree

IF there's a trend of the vote narrowing, I'm not going to lie, I'm going to be salty af. There's literally no reason a close Iowa vote should have so much effect nationally.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Retro

disagree

Oh? Well this could be an outlier as well but two national polls confirming this...idk man.

Though if you scroll to the bottom and click on full democratic results they give different numbers that you can tinker with. Idk what that's all about because im on mobile and it's not formatted right. Go check it out and discuss it with me

[Retro]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Oh? Well this could be an outlier as well but two national polls confirming this...idk man.

Though if you scroll to the bottom and click on full democratic results they give different numbers that you can tinker with. Idk what that's all about because im on mobile and it's not formatted right. Go check it out and discuss it with me

CBS/NY Times 1/7 - 1/10 389 LV 6.0 48 41 2 Clinton +7
IBD/TIPP 1/4 - 1/8 378 LV 5.1 43 39 2 Clinton +4

These were back to back early last month. I'm not worried until there's a consistent trend and until we see the results of the debate and NH.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Retro

CBS/NY Times 1/7 - 1/10 389 LV 6.0 48 41 2 Clinton +7
IBD/TIPP 1/4 - 1/8 378 LV 5.1 43 39 2 Clinton +4

These were back to back early last month. I'm not worried until there's a consistent trend and until we see the results of the debate and NH.

I guess