Quote:
Originally posted by Eternium
It depends on how actively she promotes. Most songs don't get to 4 million right away, but accumulate sales while they slowly fall. Look at "Just Give Me a Reason." It was falling before it hit 3 mill, yet thanks to airplay moving so slowly and AC/Hot AC radio play (which moves twice to three times as slow), it stayed relevant long enough to breeze past 4 million. Britney doesn't have the same luxury as she's only supported by pop radio, so if she wants gradual sales like that, she'll have to keep promoting her song. If she promotes till the album comes out, then I could see the first single (and probably only the first single) going 4x platinum if it is a hit. She also needs to not pull the song from radio. "S&S" would probably have made it to like 3.6 million if it wasn't pulled from radio for "#ThatPower."
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"Scream & Shout" was hurt by them replacing it with the album version when
#willpower finally came out. Here is its positions a week before the album:
53-57-51-54-46-46-50 (#willpower on iTunes; single version removed) - 154 - 91 - 69 - 59 - 52 - 50 - 52 - 60 - 74 - 78 - 83 - 75 - 76 - 87 - 102... and so on.
Had they hadn't done that (it is usual procedure, tho) it would kept stabled and moving like ~30-40k a week and not dipped down to the 20k it sold during that week, and then continued to decline after losing exposure/momentum. It only regained where it was due to the average daily rate of sales already set for the week, but hurt it still. Similar to "Ooh La La" never finding its footing again, though it was always doomed.
Also it wasn't pulled from radio, naturally a previous single will decrease when another one comes. Case in point, this is where it stands today as a recurrent on Pop Radio:
46 +4 WILL.I.AM & BRITN... Scream And Shout 1708 +42 -91 +50 10.617 +0.156
^Almost as many spins as "Applause" gained today.
"#thatPOWER" flopped and is nowhere to be found as far as still getting played.
Britney doesn't need to keep promoting her song to get it to reach high levels. "Womanizer" is 3.4 million and got one US performance. It depends on the type of music. And songs like "Womanizer", "Circus", "Scream & Shout" all have a rhythmic-vibe, while her candy pop songs ("I Wanna Go", "3") don't have longevity afterwards.
I think she'll be able to obtain a 4 million seller with this era's lead single, given she is going "urban" and Rhythmic will be supporting her, giving it further exposure and more cred outside the microwave pop of Top 40. Plus they're doing the right thing by having her promote from the get-go and not wait until the album's release week. That'll give it momentum going in, plus Holiday sales.