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Discussion: ATRL for Obama 2012
Member Since: 5/18/2011
Posts: 17,136
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Quote:
Originally posted by Musiclover1987
So the states Obama needs to win are basically,
The safe blue states
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois(20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Washington D.C. (3)
and Wisconsin (10) Pennsylvania (20), Ohio. (18) (MUST)
And either one of these: Iowa (6), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4) or Florida (29).
I hope their money is going to OH and PA right now.
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I'm pretty sure PA is fine. Romney has never led there and the last poll released from there shows Obama had gained 0.6% to a total of 4.6% ahead of Romney.
Currently Wisconsin has Obama ahead by 5%.
I think the only real question is Ohio where Obama is currently ahead by 2.6% and he should win that. I think it really comes down to voter turn out and some type of fraud
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Member Since: 8/6/2012
Posts: 20,242
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I just love how people want to vote for someone who wants to CUT FEMA,PBS,Has lied numerous times and was called out on it in a interview. And people fail to realize that jobs have went up while Obama was in office is research that hard to do?.
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Member Since: 5/18/2011
Posts: 17,136
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Quote:
Originally posted by I Am Music
I just love how people want to vote for someone who wants to CUT FEMA,PBS,Has lied numerous times and was called out on it in a interview. And people fail to realize that jobs have went up while Obama was in office is research that hard to do?.
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Because when you're a Republican, Fox News is all the research you need.
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Member Since: 8/6/2012
Posts: 20,242
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Quote:
Originally posted by I♥COCKiness
Because when you're a Republican, Fox News is all the research you need.
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Point taken.
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Member Since: 10/29/2011
Posts: 14,725
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Quote:
Originally posted by I Am Music
I just love how people want to vote for someone who wants to CUT FEMA,PBS,Has lied numerous times and was called out on it in a interview. And people fail to realize that jobs have went up while Obama was in office is research that hard to do?.
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Or want to give total control back to the party that got the US in this mess in the first place.
While ignoring all the indications that the US has been one of the fastest countries to get out of the economic crisis and that when Obama took office, jobs were falling with 750,000 every month.
AND that Romney could care less about 47% of the population.
AND that Romney himself passed a similar healthcare as Obama's in MASS and it happens to be working pretty damn well.
Like the choice is so ****ing clear, I don't get it.
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Member Since: 10/29/2011
Posts: 14,725
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Member Since: 9/18/2011
Posts: 18,295
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A vote for Romney.
Free Speech-Well,SOPA (the failed bill that would have censored the internet) was started by a conservative republican.Obama rejected it.Romney? IDK,but IMO he would have been for it.
Freedom of Religion-No religious freedoms were being taken in the first damn place;And there are people in Romney's base that equate Atheism/Nonreligion with Treason
Preserving Marriage-Words always get redefined.The only effect LGBT marriage is gonna have is that LGBTs will get married.Don't believe in it? Don't get gay married.
Protecting life-Ultimately this is the decision of the child's parents.Why are people being nosey about this in the first place?????
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Member Since: 10/29/2011
Posts: 14,725
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People kill me with the "protecting life" crap.
Democrats aren't PRO-ABORTION.
Obama is for pro-choice, as in every woman should be able to make her own decision.
How are conservatives FOR Freedom of religion, the right to carry guns and other rights they yell for the government to stay away from, but want to take away a woman's right to make decision regarding her own body? And aren't even willing to give gays any rights??
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Member Since: 12/9/2007
Posts: 9,007
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The south is totally voting for Romney, I think he'll win Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina relatively easy. Obama, however, has the support of the mid-west, and Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all should go to the President.
Romney has shown an edge in Colorado, which I think he'll win. Nevada will go to Obama in my prediction, which would put him over the 270 needed to win the election.
It will be a miracle for the Republican party if Romney can pull this off.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by Musiclover1987
People kill me with the "protecting life" crap.
Democrats aren't PRO-ABORTION.
Obama is for pro-choice, as in every woman should be able to make her own decision.
How are conservatives FOR Freedom of religion, the right to carry guns and other rights they yell for the government to stay away from, but want to take away a woman's right to take decision regarding her own body? And aren't even willing to give gays any rights??
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THIS!!
I don't necessarily like the idea of abortion, but I am NOT a woman (or even a doctor), so I should be able to tell women what to do with their bodies. It's generally a bunch of old MEN that try to handle women's issues. 
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Member Since: 9/18/2011
Posts: 18,295
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Quote:
Originally posted by Musiclover1987
People kill me with the "protecting life" crap.
Democrats aren't PRO-ABORTION.
Obama is for pro-choice, as in every woman should be able to make her own decision.
How are conservatives FOR Freedom of religion, the right to carry guns and other rights they yell for the government to stay away from, but want to take away a woman's right to make decision regarding her own body? And aren't even willing to give gays any rights??
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Exactly why I highlighted a few right wing contradictions.
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Member Since: 12/4/2010
Posts: 37,894
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Gyal at the Romney thread being 300 pages. Do better.
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Member Since: 9/18/2011
Posts: 18,295
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Quote:
Originally posted by Doc
Gyal at the Romney thread being 300 pages. Do better.
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That's because much of the Romney thread consists of ATRLers BASHING Romney and his policies.I already went in there and said trolling their thread was not the answer,but there's still a little bit of activity going over there.
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Member Since: 12/3/2010
Posts: 14,971
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I wish I was American so I could vote Obama.
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Member Since: 9/18/2011
Posts: 18,295
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.After months of campaigning at a normal pace, Republican
nominee Mitt Romney set out on a frenzied, all-out
campaign push to win over voters in eight of the
battleground states that will decide who becomes
president.
By David Lauter
Tribune Washington Bureau
9:51 p.m. CDT, November 3, 2012
RECOMMENDED VIDEO
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Obama appears to have
early vote lead in key
states
With more than 28 million Americans having already
voted, the Obama and Romney campaigns have found a
new topic for disagreement: what do the numbers say
about who is winning?
In a conference call with reporters Saturday, top officials
of President Obama’s campaign insisted that they were
building a lead in key states that Romney would have
difficulty overcoming.
“Our opponent is losing among early voters in nearly
every public poll in every battleground state,” Jeremy
Bird, the Obama campaign’s field director, told reporters
on a late-afternoon conference call. Romney would have
to win the election-day vote with majorities as large as
60% in some states in order to prevail, he said, citing
polling figures.
So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in
Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio — five
states that could decide the election, if they voted the
same way. Republicans have the edge in Colorado, which
Obama won in 2008.
Republican officials counter that Obama’s margins have
fallen below those that he achieved in 2008, suggesting
that makes the president vulnerable to an election-day
push by the GOP.
The two sides also disagree over whether Obama’s early-
vote efforts have succeeded in turning out sporadic voters
– those who only show up for some elections – or whether
the campaign has simply drained the pool of available
Democratic voters early.
Democrats insist the information they have gathered
through voter contacts makes them confident that they
are getting the sporadic voters they have targeted. In a
memo to reporters, Republican officials insisted the
Obama campaign was merely “cannibalizing” voters who
would otherwise have voted on Tuesday.
Neither side can be absolutely sure of its numbers, of
course – the early votes have been cast, but won’t be
counted until Tuesday. Instead, the campaigns draw
inferences from the party registration of the people who
have voted early and other information they have about
the voters who have gone to the polls.
A look at early voting in the tightest states:
Colorado
The picture seems more favorable to the Republicans in
Colorado, where early voting also ended on Friday and
where almost 80% of the vote in 2008 was cast early.
Republicans hold a small advantage in party registration
among early voters so far -- 36.9% to 34.6%.
Four years ago, it was the Democrats who held a small
margin among early voters. The flip is a good sign for
Republicans; on the other hand, Obama won the state in
2008 by nine percentage points over Sen. John McCain,
giving him a substantial cushion.
With so much of the state’s vote being cast by
independents, the deciding question will be which
candidate wins among them. Democrats point to big
increases in turnout among Latinos in the state, many of
whom register as independents, and say that bodes well
for them.
Early voting in Colorado is expected to account for about
80 percent of all votes cast, giving it more weight than in
other states.
Florida
Florida, the nation’s biggest swing-vote prize, wraps up its
early voting Saturday night. As of mid-day, with about 4
million of the state’s voters having cast ballots, registered
Democrats had built up a margin of more than 100,000
votes over registered Republicans.
That’s a considerably smaller margin than in 2008 – and
also a smaller absolute number, reflecting the fact that
the state has fewer days of early voting this year. In 2008,
McCain won the voters who showed up on election-day in
Florida. Republicans insist Romney will repeat that and
carry the state, which is a must-win for him.
Democratic officials say their get-out-the-vote operation
will carry Obama over the top in the state. Polls in Florida
have varied widely, in part because of the difficulty of
predicting who is a “likely voter” in a state where the
voter population changes so much from election to
election. Political strategists on both sides say the state
currently appears to be a dead heat.
The Obama campaign acknowledges it must do better
among Florida's Election Day voters than Obama did on
2008, when McCain won the Election Day vote by 5
percentage points.
Iowa
The Democratic margin is smaller, but still formidable in
Iowa, where about 614,000 people have voted, according
to state statistics compiled by George Mason University
political scientist Michael McDonald. Iowa Democrats lead
Republicans among the early voters by an 11 point
margin, 43%-32%.
Four years ago, Obama won the early vote in Iowa by a
whopping 27 percentage points, 63 percent to 36 percent.
McCain, meanwhile, won the Election Day vote by about
1,800 votes — less than a percentage point. Together, they
added up to a 10-point victory for Obama.
Romney's campaign argues that Democrats always do
better among early voters in Iowa while Republicans do
better among Election Day voters, even when President
George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004.
Obama's campaign counters that with early voting on the
rise, Romney will be left with fewer Election Day voters to
make up the difference.
Nevada
In Nevada, for example, where early voting finished on
Friday, Democrats have a formidable lead, solidifying the
forecasts from polls which have suggested Nevada will
wind up in the president’s column.
Registered Democrats outnumbered registered
Republicans by almost 48,000 votes out of just over
701,845 cast in Nevada, according to figures released
Saturday by the state Secretary of State’s office. The early
vote amounted to 56% of the registered voters in the state,
which is up from 2008. Since not all registered voters will
cast a ballot, the numbers suggest that somewhere around
two-thirds of the Nevada vote is already over.
To win the state, Romney would have to rack up a large
majority among the early voters who were not registered
in either party (19% of the early turnout) and win heavily
on election day – a tall order.
North Carolina
About 2.5 million people have voted, and 48 percent of
them were Democrats and 32 percent of them were
Republicans. Four years ago at this time, Democrats had a
slightly larger lead over Republicans, and Obama won the
early vote by 11 percentage points.
Obama lost the Election Day Vote by 17 percentage points
in 2008. But the early vote was much bigger than the
Election Day vote, resulting in Obama's narrow win.
Obama's campaign cites the big lead for Democrats among
early voters, while Romney's campaign argues that even a
small shift toward the Republicans could flip the state toRomney
Ohio
Ohio does not register voters by party. Instead, the state
classifies voters according to the primary in which they
most recently voted. Anyone who didn’t vote in the most
recent primary is listed as a non-party voter. That makes
interpreting the state’s early vote numbers difficult.
About 1.3 million Ohioans had voted by Saturday. Obama
campaign officials say they have established a strong lead
over Republicans in turning out the targeted sporadic
voters they’ve been seeking. Perhaps more importantly as
an indicator, Obama has consistently led in public polls of
the state’s likely voters.
In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 percentage points.
Associated Press contributed to this report.After months of campaigning at a normal pace, Republican
nominee Mitt Romney set out on a frenzied, all-out
campaign push to win over voters in eight of the
battleground states that will decide who becomes
president.
By David Lauter
Tribune Washington Bureau
9:51 p.m. CDT, November 3, 2012
RECOMMENDED VIDEO
You need to have the
Adobe Flash Player 9
to view this content.
Please click here to
continue.
Hurricane Sandy
Telethon
Thibodeau reacts to
Bulls' loss against the
Advertisement Officials speak about
Chicago firefighter's
The Tribune is using Facebook comments on stories. To
post a comment, log into Facebook and then add your
comment. To report spam or abuse, click the "X" in the
upper right corner of the comment box. In certain
circumstances, we will take down entire comment boards.
Our commenting guidelines can be found here ».
Obama appears to have
early vote lead in key
states
With more than 28 million Americans having already
voted, the Obama and Romney campaigns have found a
new topic for disagreement: what do the numbers say
about who is winning?
In a conference call with reporters Saturday, top officials
of President Obama’s campaign insisted that they were
building a lead in key states that Romney would have
difficulty overcoming.
“Our opponent is losing among early voters in nearly
every public poll in every battleground state,” Jeremy
Bird, the Obama campaign’s field director, told reporters
on a late-afternoon conference call. Romney would have
to win the election-day vote with majorities as large as
60% in some states in order to prevail, he said, citing
polling figures.
So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in
Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio — five
states that could decide the election, if they voted the
same way. Republicans have the edge in Colorado, which
Obama won in 2008.
Republican officials counter that Obama’s margins have
fallen below those that he achieved in 2008, suggesting
that makes the president vulnerable to an election-day
push by the GOP.
The two sides also disagree over whether Obama’s early-
vote efforts have succeeded in turning out sporadic voters
– those who only show up for some elections – or whether
the campaign has simply drained the pool of available
Democratic voters early.
Democrats insist the information they have gathered
through voter contacts makes them confident that they
are getting the sporadic voters they have targeted. In a
memo to reporters, Republican officials insisted the
Obama campaign was merely “cannibalizing” voters who
would otherwise have voted on Tuesday.
Neither side can be absolutely sure of its numbers, of
course – the early votes have been cast, but won’t be
counted until Tuesday. Instead, the campaigns draw
inferences from the party registration of the people who
have voted early and other information they have about
the voters who have gone to the polls.
A look at early voting in the tightest states:
Colorado
The picture seems more favorable to the Republicans in
Colorado, where early voting also ended on Friday and
where almost 80% of the vote in 2008 was cast early.
Republicans hold a small advantage in party registration
among early voters so far -- 36.9% to 34.6%.
Four years ago, it was the Democrats who held a small
margin among early voters. The flip is a good sign for
Republicans; on the other hand, Obama won the state in
2008 by nine percentage points over Sen. John McCain,
giving him a substantial cushion.
With so much of the state’s vote being cast by
independents, the deciding question will be which
candidate wins among them. Democrats point to big
increases in turnout among Latinos in the state, many of
whom register as independents, and say that bodes well
for them.
Early voting in Colorado is expected to account for about
80 percent of all votes cast, giving it more weight than in
other states.
Florida
Florida, the nation’s biggest swing-vote prize, wraps up its
early voting Saturday night. As of mid-day, with about 4
million of the state’s voters having cast ballots, registered
Democrats had built up a margin of more than 100,000
votes over registered Republicans.
That’s a considerably smaller margin than in 2008 – and
also a smaller absolute number, reflecting the fact that
the state has fewer days of early voting this year. In 2008,
McCain won the voters who showed up on election-day in
Florida. Republicans insist Romney will repeat that and
carry the state, which is a must-win for him.
Democratic officials say their get-out-the-vote operation
will carry Obama over the top in the state. Polls in Florida
have varied widely, in part because of the difficulty of
predicting who is a “likely voter” in a state where the
voter population changes so much from election to
election. Political strategists on both sides say the state
currently appears to be a dead heat.
The Obama campaign acknowledges it must do better
among Florida's Election Day voters than Obama did on
2008, when McCain won the Election Day vote by 5
percentage points.
Iowa
The Democratic margin is smaller, but still formidable in
Iowa, where about 614,000 people have voted, according
to state statistics compiled by George Mason University
political scientist Michael McDonald. Iowa Democrats lead
Republicans among the early voters by an 11 point
margin, 43%-32%.
Four years ago, Obama won the early vote in Iowa by a
whopping 27 percentage points, 63 percent to 36 percent.
McCain, meanwhile, won the Election Day vote by about
1,800 votes — less than a percentage point. Together, they
added up to a 10-point victory for Obama.
Romney's campaign argues that Democrats always do
better among early voters in Iowa while Republicans do
better among Election Day voters, even when President
George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004.
Obama's campaign counters that with early voting on the
rise, Romney will be left with fewer Election Day voters to
make up the difference.
Nevada
In Nevada, for example, where early voting finished on
Friday, Democrats have a formidable lead, solidifying the
forecasts from polls which have suggested Nevada will
wind up in the president’s column.
Registered Democrats outnumbered registered
Republicans by almost 48,000 votes out of just over
701,845 cast in Nevada, according to figures released
Saturday by the state Secretary of State’s office. The early
vote amounted to 56% of the registered voters in the state,
which is up from 2008. Since not all registered voters will
cast a ballot, the numbers suggest that somewhere around
two-thirds of the Nevada vote is already over.
To win the state, Romney would have to rack up a large
majority among the early voters who were not registered
in either party (19% of the early turnout) and win heavily
on election day – a tall order.
North Carolina
About 2.5 million people have voted, and 48 percent of
them were Democrats and 32 percent of them were
Republicans. Four years ago at this time, Democrats had a
slightly larger lead over Republicans, and Obama won the
early vote by 11 percentage points.
Obama lost the Election Day Vote by 17 percentage points
in 2008. But the early vote was much bigger than the
Election Day vote, resulting in Obama's narrow win.
Obama's campaign cites the big lead for Democrats among
early voters, while Romney's campaign argues that even a
small shift toward the Republicans could flip the state to
Romney.
Ohio
Ohio does not register voters by party. Instead, the state
classifies voters according to the primary in which they
most recently voted. Anyone who didn’t vote in the most
recent primary is listed as a non-party voter. That makes
interpreting the state’s early vote numbers difficult.
About 1.3 million Ohioans had voted by Saturday. Obama campaign officials say they have established a strong lead
over Republicans in turning out the targeted sporadic
voters they’ve been seeking. Perhaps more importantly as
an indicator, Obama has consistently led in public polls of
the state’s likely voters.
In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 percentage points.
Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Member Since: 9/18/2011
Posts: 18,295
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In short- Obama's winning much of the early vote.To those that support Obama and haven't voted yet,GET TO THE POLLS THIS TUESDAY.MAKE YOUR POLITICAL VOICE HEARD!!!!!
Don't let Romney win.America doesn't need 4 years of Regression
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Member Since: 10/9/2009
Posts: 6,108
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2 more days.  
Any last predictions?
The GOP pretty much screwed their chances of grabbing the Senate because of people like T. Akin and R. Mourdock. Worst case for Senate: 51 Dems vs. 48 Reps vs. 1 Independent (most likely to side with the Dems). Best case: 54 Dems vs 45 Reps vs 1 Independent. This would be an increase of 1 Dem, which would be totally unexpected.
Dems will also pick up seats in the House. Still Rep majority.
And Obama wins! 
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Member Since: 8/23/2011
Posts: 11,596
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Nate Silver updated his blog:
Obama has an 85% chance of winning this election
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Member Since: 3/8/2012
Posts: 39,015
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Can we gang rush the page for Romney when Obama wins <3
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Member Since: 10/17/2011
Posts: 1,788
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Quote:
Originally posted by Graduation
The south is totally voting for Romney, I think he'll win Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina relatively easy. Obama, however, has the support of the mid-west, and Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all should go to the President.
Romney has shown an edge in Colorado, which I think he'll win. Nevada will go to Obama in my prediction, which would put him over the 270 needed to win the election.
It will be a miracle for the Republican party if Romney can pull this off.
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Virginia has been trending Dem. for the last few years - Obama has a slightly better chance of winning that state than Romney. Mitt will most likely win NC but his win in Florida will be by the thinnest of margins, assuming he wins it, which he has to. Colorado is also looking like a toss up.
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