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Chart Listings: Billboard: "Roar" 550K, "Applause" 225K
Member Since: 8/24/2008
Posts: 40,932
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My prediction of 687k doesn't look so crazy now 
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Member Since: 9/26/2011
Posts: 3,765
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Quote:
Originally posted by umichgrad07
Using the Billboard formula (airplay/7500 + sales/12 + streaming/450):
BLURRED LINES --
Airplay: 225,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 300,000 downloads
Streaming: 7,000,000 plays
Total Points = 70,555
ROAR --
Airplay: ~40,000,000-50,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 525,000-550,000 downloads
Streaming: ~2,000,000-5,000,000 plays
Total Points: 53,527 - 63,611
Gaga should go top ten. The only major wildcard for both Roar and Applause is their streaming. It's kinda hard to pinpoint that seeing this is the first time that both artists have released during the new rules. We really don't know how much of their lyric/audio video views will be from the US.
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My estimates for Katy is much closer to BL:
ROAR:
Airplay: ~ 55,000,000-60,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 525,000-550,000 downloads
Streaming: ~ 4,000,000-7,000,000 plays
Total points: 59,972 - 69,389
Don't think Katy will have less than 55M AI, her rolling effect should not be too devastating, actually i think She will have about 58-59M AI.
Sales wise i think she will be closer to 525k than 550k.
Biggest guess is streaming numbers, but lyrics video for Roar is >13M now and at least 25% should be from US as it's her biggest market ,not to mention there are lot of other song videos available. Also there is another streaming services where song is available (i have it on Spotify for my country, i think it is available also in US) and it should give it additional points. 4M is minimum in streams IMHO and could go quite high if YT views are more local for her.
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 773
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Hoping Gaga can at least sell 250k. 
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 3,396
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ulrihs
My estimates for Katy is much closer to BL:
ROAR:
Airplay: ~55,000,000-60,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 525,000-550,000 downloads
Streaming: ~4,000,000-7,000,000 plays
Total points: 59,972 - 69,389
Don't think Katy will have less than 55M AI, her rolling effect should not be too devastating, actually i think She will have about 58-59M AI.
Sales wise i think she will be closer to 525k than 550k.
Biggest guess is streaming numbers, but lyrics video for Roar is >13M now and at least 25% should be from US as it's her biggest market ,not to mention there are lot of other song videos available. Also there is another streaming services where song is available (i have it on Spotify for my country, i think it is available also in US) and it should give it additional points. 4M is minimum in streams IMHO and could go quite high if YT views are more local for her.
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Praying she won't debute at #1 
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Member Since: 9/26/2011
Posts: 3,765
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Quote:
Originally posted by Swine
Praying she won't debute at #1 |
Katy already debuted on HOT 100 this week, she was #85 from airplay alone.
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Member Since: 3/14/2013
Posts: 30,547
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Quote:
Originally posted by Swine
Praying she won't debute at #1 |
Quote:
Originally posted by Ulrihs
Katy already debuted on HOT 100 this week, she was #85 from airplay alone.
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Mess 
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 2,085
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Member Since: 5/17/2011
Posts: 863
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 773
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This thread be like:
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Member Since: 4/28/2012
Posts: 5,902
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Quote:
Originally posted by Swine
Praying she won't debute at #1 |
the INSECURITY. 
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Member Since: 5/12/2012
Posts: 18,059
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Get iT Katy
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Member Since: 4/25/2011
Posts: 41,661
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Quote:
Originally posted by Swine
Praying she won't debute at #1 |
She already debuted at #85 with Airplay alone which is much more impressive :,-(
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Member Since: 5/30/2012
Posts: 4,748
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 362
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Congrats Katy, she deserves it!
Gaga tho 
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 1,027
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I predict 561k 
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 2,085
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Quote:
Originally posted by Thomasuxx
Get iT Katy
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that gif only Mariah could 
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 6,659
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THESE GIFS THOUGH
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 7/22/2012
Posts: 8,060
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Member Since: 8/11/2012
Posts: 13,230
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Quote:
Originally posted by Swine
Praying she won't debute at #1 |
 
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Member Since: 1/19/2012
Posts: 8,596
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ulrihs
My estimates for Katy is much closer to BL:
ROAR:
Airplay: ~55,000,000-60,000,000 audience impressions
Sales: 525,000-550,000 downloads
Streaming: ~4,000,000-7,000,000 plays
Total points: 59,972 - 69,389
Don't think Katy will have less than 55M AI, her rolling effect should not be too devastating, actually i think She will have about 58-59M AI.
Sales wise i think she will be closer to 525k than 550k.
Biggest guess is streaming numbers, but lyrics video for Roar is >13M now and at least 25% should be from US as it's her biggest market ,not to mention there are lot of other song videos available. Also there is another streaming services where song is available (i have it on Spotify for my country, i think it is available also in US) and it should give it additional points. 4M is minimum in streams IMHO and could go quite high if YT views are more local for her.
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With sales exceeding 550k, she could get it  
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