I doubt it will "debut" at #1. It will likely debut early in the lower regions based on AirPlay alone. Much like We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together. It could go #1 the following week on its first sales week.
Why people still bring up this Judas thread ? The song would've probably debute at number 1 IF It was released on Monday then It was changed . . .
And BL isn't getting VOTY ... It's like saying Somebody That I Used to know will win cuz It was the biggest song of 2012 or Call me maybe ... Robin has no fans at all his album will debute with 80k max and IF he don't have another hit no one will care about him ever ... the VOTY goes to someone with big fanbase like Taylor or JT or atleast Macklemore ...
Top 2 for sure, there is no way it will be lower than that with a full sales week and VMA performance.
It's just a matter if radio chooses to accept the song or not. If they don't, number one might be a bit of a challenge to achieve.