Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season - Page 477

foxaylove

Quote:

Originally posted by Ramcoro

Which states are winner take all?

There is no one state that makes or breaks the results for the primaries. For the Democratic Party, you need over 2,000 delegates to become the party's nominee. The state with the most delegates is naturally California, but the California primary isn't till the very end (by design I'm sure).

Quote:

Originally posted by Javan

Mainstream media will do the most to diminish Bernie's momentum if he loses any of the 1st two states tbh. He can't afford to lose NH or IA

Correct. Winning the first state sets the tone with how the media will portray your viability for your respective party's nominee. Losing Iowa in 2008 absolute killed Hillary because the media had a field day with the loss and the momentum for Obama grew from there. New Hampshire helped her somewhat rebound, but once that crack was shown, it was downhill from there. Questions will come up about his chances of winning if Bernie doesn't take Iowa. Especially since the demographic of the Democratic Party in Iowa, being so heavily white, is where he is expected to excel at.

RatedG²

Quote:

Originally posted by Butters

GO BERNIE!!

I'm so excited (and nervous for Bernie)

We're all so nervous I'm excited! No matter who wins I'll be happy for the winner and hopefully whoever ends up the nominee farther down the road wins the White House

Butters

Bush having better odds than Bernie? LOL.
Donald v Hillary will be a shitshow

Melquiades

Why do you think black people are less warm to support Sanders than hispanics and whites? Is it low information about Sanders? Something particular about him? Or they just like Clinton better because of her association with Obama?

I mean some of his proposals are better for minorities than what Clinton says (criminal reform for instance). He also is the only candidate to ever dare to say "black lives matter" during the debates and addressing "institutional racism" with its proper name. It really puzzles me.

Butters

Quote:

Originally posted by RatedG²

We're all so nervous I'm excited! No matter who wins I'll be happy for the winner and hopefully whoever ends up the nominee farther down the road wins the White House

Getting my homework and perching in front of CNN w/some cashews tomorrow will be a big highlight of my week.
I'd def root for Hillary if she becomes the nominee (and would make the effort to vote in November). btw I'm sorry for any passive-aggressive posts I've made to you in the last few weeks. You're cool

foxaylove

Quote:

Originally posted by Melquiades

Why do you think black people are less warm to support Sanders than hispanics and whites? Is it low information about Sanders? Something particular about him? Or they just like Clinton better because of her association with Obama?

Not a matter of low information, but not as exposed to Bernie as we are to the Clintons. Then again, could be a matter of both. Bernie isn't a prevalent face among people of color that we see in politics. You also have every black/latino prominent figures within their communities endorsing Hillary as well. The Clintons have been that for nearly 3 decades now. The Democratic Party is by far the most diverse out of the two tradition powers (GOP vs. DEM). If you don't have the minority support, it's hard to make waves in the party.

Espresso

Quote:

Originally posted by Melquiades

Why do you think black people are less warm to support Sanders than hispanics and whites? Is it low information about Sanders? Something particular about him? Or they just like Clinton better because of her association with Obama?

I mean some of his proposals are better for minorities than what Clinton says (criminal reform for instance). He also is the only candidate to ever dare to say "black lives matter" during the debates and addressing "institutional racism" with its proper name. It really puzzles me.

It's not as insidious as that or what people make it out to be - imho.

The Clintons have had an extensive framework in place for decades with connections to very influential organizations like the National Urban League and the NAACP, especially in Southern strongholds like the Carolinas.

To verge on the slightly politically incorrect...Vermont is a very...white state. To a certain extent, Bernie was starting from scratch with that constituency.

Hillary has said both phrases in speeches by debate #2 - I don't have the patience to bring up receipts so just take my word for it. I don't say that to say ones better than the other but just clarify.

RatedG²

Quote:

Originally posted by Butters

Getting my homework and perching in front of CNN w/some cashews tomorrow will be a big highlight of my week.
I'd def root for Hillary if she becomes the nominee (and would make the effort to vote in November). btw I'm sorry for any passive-aggressive posts I've made to you in the last few weeks. You're cool

Haha no problem I don't have any ill feelings towards you or any Bernie fan. It's all good

Gladion

So excited for tomorrow, come on hill!

RatedG²

Quote:

Originally posted by Melquiades

Why do you think black people are less warm to support Sanders than hispanics and whites? Is it low information about Sanders? Something particular about him? Or they just like Clinton better because of her association with Obama?

I mean some of his proposals are better for minorities than what Clinton says (criminal reform for instance). He also is the only candidate to ever dare to say "black lives matter" during the debates and addressing "institutional racism" with its proper name. It really puzzles me.

It's what Foxay and Espresso have said. Also it has a lot to do with her connections to Obama and Bill Clinton. Blacks love both of them and because of their endorsements of her (Barack hasn't publically endorsed but she did work for him as SoS which blacks like) they like her. Many black organizations love her as well and endorsed her so even more blacks love her

As for Hispanics, well she was senator of NY which has a big latino population, and Asian. With her good record there with regards to her general work as well as work for specific minorities (like her Not My Abuela stints) and her general awareness of those issues affecting minorities they flock to her.

So it's not that minorities are anti Sanders. But Pro Hillary

Temporal

Quote:

Originally posted by Espresso

Bookies Have Predicted Elections with 91% Accuracy.

These are their latest odds:

Bipartisan Report

V interesting, especially them betting pretty heavily on Rubio to do well.

Tinker

Hope Hillary takes Iowa despite what the polls say

Istan4R

So we will know the results tomorrow as well right? I can't wait

Retro

Praying for Warren to drop a surprise and endorse Hillary tomorrow

King Maxx

I have faith in Hillary. Like I really think she'll win.

Ramcoro

Ta-Nehisi Cpates on Bernie Sanders

To be fair he also criticized Hillary. I don't think POC are quite sold that the ailments to racism is economic policy. Class and race do intersect, but black people have been lied to and been let down by the whole "improving the economy helps everyone" mentality the whole "a rising tide raises all boats". It didn't "trickle down" 30 years ago, it didn't trick down 20 or 10 years ago, and it's not trickling down now.

I do believe Sander's policies would benefit POC the most, but it's not being sold good enough. Perhaps it is part of the perception that he is unelectable or that his policies won't get passed.

Melquiades

Quote:

Originally posted by Retro

Praying for Warren to drop a surprise and endorse Hillary tomorrow

She wont. It would hurt her image a lot since Sanders is basically a male-her. She cant also endorse Hillary to avoid pissing off the establishment and the women representatives who have all endorsed Clinton. She is going to wait until Sanders drops out and endorses Clinton too.

I hope Clinton considers Sanders for a major position in her government. I am getting worried about Trump´s appeal. He just outright said today that he wants universal healthcare.

King Maxx

I'm more interested in the New Hampshire primary tbh. I wonder if Hillary can rise in polls if she wins tomorrow? The ads and attacks will be >>>>> And another town hall where she shines the best.

dayydreaam

can someone explain the Iowa caucus, and/or the primaries?!?! please

King Maxx

Quote:

Originally posted by dayydreaam

can someone explain the Iowa caucus, and/or the primaries?!?! please

I'm not 100% familiar with the process, but in a caucus, people split into groups. People speak and try to convince others to vote for a particular candidate. If in the end, a candidate does not get 15% of support, those people who are planning to vote for that person has to now choose for someone else.

So lets say O'Malley does not get the 15%. Then those people will have to choose between Hillary or Bernie. That's why it's crucial for both candidates because they are neck-and-neck in polls. A primary is like the general election where you just go in a ballot and vote for who you want. (An open primary is when you can vote for anyone despite party affiliation. So a Rep can vote for Hillary. A closed primary is when you must vote for your party affiliation. So Independents can't vote for a Dem or a Rep.)