For basically every song that is incorrect and Youtube is (much) more global.
And no I absolutely don't see her reaching #5. She would need ~25M streams and she is not getting 25M streams. Although I have never tracked a video from her before, so no idea how global that is.
Airplay will also be lower than that as she will get rolling effect in 2 days. 35M for Nielsen or something.
Yeah I'm totally not following this at all - with the numbers I have, 25m streams would put her at like #3 and I don't see the rolling effect being that big, to be honest.
Maybe something in the formula I'm using needs tweaked or something, IDK.
Yeah I'm totally not following this at all - with the numbers I have, 25m streams would put her at like #3 and I don't see the rolling effect being that big, to be honest.
Maybe something in the formula I'm using needs tweaked or something, IDK.
Oh yeah your totally right
I had 25M in my head for some reason, but yeah would be #3 with 25M. Sorry about that.
Needs 18-19M for #5 and that is possibly yeah
But I'll go with #7 and 14-15M streams
But the rolling effect will be quite big and it will not get 5M updates after that.
OMG, Adele, I went late to the party. Adele, ****ing Adele, such a queen, yass!! So happy for her, I hope she stays a lot of weeks in the #1. She needs to get more weeks than Overrating In The Deep with Hello
Not counting 2nd week rises which I assume have to do with street date violations, I believe these are the Soundscan era albums that went to #1 from out of T10:
Aaliyah 19-1 with a previous #2 peak (RIP)
Josh Groban 11-1...but that was just a one-week break from T10
Ray Charles 15-1...Grammy AOTY I believe, though he'd debuted at #2.
*Michael Jackson 148-1 (RIP)
Lil Wayne 16-1...was previously digital-only and debuted at #2
Pearl Jam technically 173-1 in its third week cuz the CD/cassette went on sale then
Titanic 11-1
Went through 40s-80s; looks like the only album that first got to #1 in sales after being out of T20 the previous week and was in at least its 4th charting week is MJ.
I had 25M in my head for some reason, but yeah would be #3 with 25M. Sorry about that.
Needs 18-19M for #5 and that is possibly yeah
But I'll go with #7 and 14-15M streams
But the rolling effect will be quite big and it will not get 5M updates after that.
Hmmm but what do you have for Stitches? I have her beating it even if she gets 97k sales, 37m AI, and 13m streams. If you have him ahead, I must be underestimating his streaming somehow.
Hmmm but what do you have for Stitches? I have her beating it even if she gets 97k sales, 37m AI, and 13m streams. If you have him ahead, I must be underestimating his streaming somehow.
10.5M. His Vevo streaming is extremely local.
Was #9 on streaming songs this week.
Alright, that explains it; his points go up a decent amount if I fix that.
So essentially, this all depends on how local Ariana's Vevo streaming is. If she only gets 17% from the US, like Adele (I think) did, she'll debut at #8. If she gets between like 21% and 27.5%, she could beat Wildest Dreams but not Stitches, so #7. Anything above that puts her roughly at #6; she'd need at least 33% but probably more to hit #5 (my WDYM estimate is kind of rough).
Alright, that explains it; his points go up a decent amount if I fix that.
So essentially, this all depends on how local Ariana's Vevo streaming is. If she only gets 17% from the US, like Adele (I think) did, she'll debut at #8. If she gets between like 21% and 27.5%, she could beat Wildest Dreams but not Stitches, so #7. Anything above that puts her roughly at #6; she'd need at least 33% but probably more to hit #5 (my WDYM estimate is kind of rough).