If you want my honest opinion I think Ciara will/would win. California Gurls will probually be like 4xPlatnium by then (LOL!) and the second single will prob also be released already, which will equal lower album sales.
It depends. I'd wait until Ciara's second single to start guessing. Ciara has went up against some big dogs in the past and sold well. Katy will open with great numbers regardless if CG dies by August.