Anything below 100k and over 300k is quite honestly delusional.
The industry is in a really bad state right now. The #1 song on iTunes right now is barely selling 200k copies weekly despite having a HUGE lead over the #2 song (much like the songs that used to sell north of 400k copies weekly a couple of years ago).
Gaga's fanbase is too strong to let her down lower than 100k copies, but it all depends on the general public's reaction and perception to it when it finally hits the web whether it's going to end at about 120k copies or even surpass 200k.
I guess we'll just have to wait to hear the song first.
Based on all the things that have happened to her in the past year (that people have really been paying attention to a lot), and the anticipation for the new single, I could see a 100K to 150K.