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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
Actually the most recent poll claims Hillary's lead over Bernie nationally has nearly vanished (+4 pts) and the current average polling shows her leading by only +16 pts, that's only 6 points more than her national lead over Obama at this point (+10). I'm not suggesting either of them has thing on lock, but no he is clearly not just a "roadblock", this is a serious battle and the current polling numbers don't indicate that she'd be able to get away with not winning either Iowa or NH.
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I agree with this until the "roadblock" part.
Until Bernie shows that he is capable of battling with Hillary in AT LEAST a handful of the 48 sother states she leads in, he isn't really in a battle with her. But like I said, many of those polls finished their studies in very late December and it's a new year which has brought a surge of momentum for Sanders. Maybe he is polling much better now and the other states haven't been checked recently enough to reflect this, we will see.
edit: I'd also imagine him getting boosts (maybe even major boosts) in other states if he wins both states as he currently is predicted polling wise. So yeah it's still closer than I originally thought but I don't see it as a challenge just yet
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
Actually the most recent poll claims Hillary's lead over Bernie nationally has nearly vanished (+4 pts) and the current average polling shows her leading by only +16 pts, that's only 6 points more than her national lead over Obama at this point (+10). I'm not suggesting either of them has thing on lock, but no he is clearly not just a "roadblock", this is a serious battle and the current polling numbers don't indicate that she'd be able to get away with not winning either Iowa or NH.
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The one you're talking about is already outdated. The most recent is a Gravis Marketing/One America News that shows her winning 65 to 26 nationally; the second most recent is NBC/SurveyMonkey and shows her winning 52 to 37. The one where she wins by 4 is the third most recent.
Also: she has a bare minimum of 359 superdelegates already committed from an incomplete sample of 579 of the 718 total superdelegates, compared to Bernie's... 9. He literally only has a confirmed nine. That puts her 7.54% of the way to the actual nomination before a single vote has been cast, before a caucus has occurred, and before her many, many states with leads (I think literally all but IA and NH) have their votes. And she could still win, statistically, in Iowa.
I'm not here just to discourage hope, but let's all make sure we have a full and total picture.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
the difference is Obama had 90% of the black vote. If Obama didn't have the black vote, Clinton would have beat him by 20%. The blacks saved Obama's neck in 2008.
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And the contrast there is that both leading candidates this time are fighting for that vote, and with the Brown and Black Forum, I think Hillary did more than well enough to garner her fair share of that vote and of minority votes in general in Iowa and, for now, in general.
If Bernie wants to win, he still has a gargantuan task ahead of him - and not to sound evil, but I sincerely hope he fails that task.
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
And the contrast there is that both leading candidates this time are fighting for that vote, and with the Brown and Black Forum, I think Hillary did more than well enough to garner her fair share of that vote and of minority votes in general in Iowa and, for now, in general.
If Bernie wants to win, he still has a gargantuan task ahead of him - and not to sound evil, but I sincerely hope he fails that task.
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It's not evil to hope Bernie falters. The case against Bernie is so easy to make by Republicans. The only reason Bernie is cruising by in matchups against Republicans is because they aren't bothering to go after him (Yet) about wanting to set tax rates at up to 90%, honey mooning in Soviet Russia, being a socialist/commie, having dementia, being a pacifist who can't even keep a microphone safe from protestors--much less a country.
People who think Bernie is going to do well against Republicans because polls, are probably also the same people who imagine Ben Carson would do great in a general election cuz polls.
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
The one you're talking about is already outdated. The most recent is a Gravis Marketing/One America News that shows her winning 65 to 26 nationally; the second most recent is NBC/SurveyMonkey and shows her winning 52 to 37. The one where she wins by 4 is the third most recent.
Also: she has a bare minimum of 359 superdelegates already committed from an incomplete sample of 579 of the 718 total superdelegates, compared to Bernie's... 9. He literally only has a confirmed nine. That puts her 7.54% of the way to the actual nomination before a single vote has been cast, before a caucus has occurred, and before her many, many states with leads (I think literally all but IA and NH) have their votes. And she could still win, statistically, in Iowa.
I'm not here just to discourage hope, but let's all make sure we have a full and total picture.
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Some polls showed Obama behind by 30 points around this time, some by 20, some by 15, and some by 5. Sixty percent pledged delegates had been for Clinton at this point and she managed to lose at the end. You're clearly not providing the "full and total picture".
I'm not saying he's more likely to win, but he's far from being just a "roadblock" that you guys make him sound like. If he actually ends up beating Hillary in NH and Iowa, it would be very difficult for her to escape her precedented fate, even with the hundreds of superdelegates who already pledged for her.
I really won't argue further about his because it's clearly pointless since all the Hillary stans on here want to deny that Bernie is a legitimate threat.
Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
It's not evil to hope Bernie falters. The case against Bernie is so easy to make by Republicans. The only reason Bernie is cruising pby in matchups against Republicans is because they aren't bothering to go after him (Yet) about wanting to set tax rates at up to 90%, honey mooning in Soviet Russia, being a socialist/commie, having dementia, being a acifist who can't even keep a microphone safe from protestors--much less a country.
People who think Bernie is going to do well against Republicans because polls, are probably also the same people who imagine Ben Carson would do great in a general election cuz polls.
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The drama 
He doesn't want to set tax rates up to 90%, you're just simply lying. He's not a "commie", you're just simply lying.
And I'm pretty sure that him allowing the Black Lives Matter members to take his mic away from him will probably sound okay compared to the misogyny, sexism and racism occurring on the other side. 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Yes, we are providing the full picture. You're just stuck comparing Bernie to Obama, a man Bernie will never be.
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Bernie's a far better and more consistent senator than Obama ever was, but okay. 
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
Some polls showed Obama behind by 30 points around this time, some by 20, some by 15, and some by 5. Sixty percent pledged delegates had been for Clinton at this point and she managed to lose at the end. You're clearly not providing the "full and total picture".
I'm not saying he's more likely to win, but he's far from being just a "roadblock" that you guys make him sound like. If he actually ends up beating Hillary in NH and Iowa, it would be very difficult for her to escape her precedented fate, even with the hundreds of superdelegates who already pledged for her.
I really won't argue further about his because it's clearly pointless since all the Hillary stans on here want to deny that Bernie is a legitimate threat.
The drama
He doesn't want to set tax rates up to 90%, you're just simply lying. He's not a "commie", you're just simply lying.
And I'm pretty sure that him allowing the Black Lives Matter members to take his mic away from him will probably sound okay compared to the misogyny, sexism and racism occurring on the other side. |
How old are you?
Do you honestly think Republicans have ever cared how honest their attacks are? Kerry was a decorated war veteran running against draft-dodger Bush, and they still swift-boated him.
They are going to tell everyone Bernie wants to raise taxes to 90%, which he has said "up to 90%" in a debate.
They are going to tell everyone Bernie loves Soviet Russia because he has gone on record for saying there is much to admire about the soviets, etc back in the 80s and 90s.
They are going to call him a socialist, a label he proudly holds but which 50% of the country are completely against.
They are dying to run against Bernie
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
How old are you?
Do you honestly think Republicans have ever cared how honest their attacks are? Kerry was a decorated war veteran running against draft-dodger Bush, and they still swift-boated him.
They are going to tell everyone Bernie wants to raise taxes to 90%, which he has said "up to 90%" in a debate.
They are going to tell everyone Bernie loves Soviet Russia because he has gone on record for saying there is much to admire about the soviets, etc back in the 80s and 90s.
They are going to call him a socialist, a label he proudly holds but which 50% of the country are completely against.
They are dying to run against Bernie |
So people can say whatever they want and he simply just won't set the record straight?  I'm pretty sure Sanders will have way more things to say regarding the prejudice and lies being told on the right side of the spectrum, these things have been far more condemned by the American public than Bernie's economic stance anyway (which isn't raising taxes up to 90%, nor being a communist).
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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No, he won't just set the record straight. That's virtually impossible to do in politics in general and particularly with the people who will listen to Cruz or Trump in the first place.
Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
Bernie's a far better and more consistent senator than Obama ever was, but okay. |
His record s Senator was literally not even my point.
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
So people can say whatever they want and he simply just won't set the record straight? I'm pretty sure Sanders will have way more things to say regarding the prejudice and lies being told on the right side of the spectrum, these things have been far more condemned by the American public than Bernie's economic stance anyway (which isn't raising taxes up to 90%, nor being a communist). |
They literally painted Obama into a Muslim Kenyan. 56% of Republicans and a good chunk of Independents believe Obama is either a Muslim and/or wasn't born in this country. Has Obama not denied this and produced his birth certificate enough?
You think John Kerry didn't fight back?
The point is, once the Republicans make this an issue, the focus will be on Bernie's negatives and him trying to say "I'm not a communist." instead of "I want free healthcare for everyone."
No one is going to care about how great his plans are when all they hear is the "I'm not a communist" part.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Wow, i hadn't seen the latest polls showing Hillary's lead in IA evaporating (that and Biden throwing her under the bus)
If Bernie wins Iowa and NH then i really don't know how she'll stop his momentum (big IF, but still valid)......
A win in both states would validate his candidacy big league
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
They literally painted Obama into a Muslim Kenyan. 56% of Republicans and a good chunk of Independents believe Obama is either a Muslim and/or wasn't born in this country. Has Obama not denied this and produced his birth certificate enough?
You think John Kerry didn't fight back?
The point is, once the Republicans make this an issue, the focus will be on Bernie's negatives and him trying to say "I'm not a communist." instead of "I want free healthcare for everyone."
No one is going to care about how great his plans are when all they hear is the "I'm not a communist" part. |
Well we all saw how that ended up for Obama and Kerry's loss was very close. Like I said before, the GP clearly cares way more about the public side of Trump's stances rather than the false claims that are/would be made about Sanders' economic views.
Ruling someone out just because of the fact that people would start making up rumors about him is just completely ridiculous.
Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
Wow, i hadn't seen the latest polls showing Hillary's lead in IA evaporating (that and Biden throwing her under the bus)
If Bernie wins Iowa and NH then i really don't know how she'll stop his momentum (big IF, but still valid)......
A win in both states would validate his candidacy big league |
Thank you for seeing the full and total picture 
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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All these elaborate fanfictions about Bernie in the general elections when y'all are so sure he's not getting the nom.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
Thank you for seeing the full and total picture |
Well aside from the sarcastic misuse of my words here, no - you're literally all failing to take her huge leads in all other states into account. Hillary losing Iowa by a couple points - which may not even happen - and losing NH would not significantly impact those states if she keeps up the campaign she has so far.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
Thank you for seeing the full and total picture |
You know what, i've seen a ton of people both online and irl who like Bernie's proposals but don't think he has a chance against Hillary so they don't even bother.
If he wins both Iowa and the "inevitability" of a HRC candidacy goes down the drain FAST
(and i do think based on common sense that he'd do better against the Republicans than HRC in terms of white voters. No idea how he'll appeal to blacks though)
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 3,391
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I CANT THO, POOR HILLARY SHE IS GONNA GET DEMOLISHED AFTER IW AND NH
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by Melquiades
I CANT THO, POOR HILLARY SHE IS GONNA GET DEMOLISHED AFTER IW AND NH |
how? IA and NH are the whitest states. Hillary has 20+% leads with minorities.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
Well aside from the sarcastic misuse of my words here, no - you're literally all failing to take her huge leads in all other states into account. Hillary losing Iowa by a couple points - which may not even happen - and losing NH would not significantly impact those states if she keeps up the campaign she has so far.
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I think it's the "inevitability" of a HRC candidacy that's at stake here.
If the party front runner loses both IA and NH, the media will bury her, and the narrative will change.
Same way if Trump loses in IA or NH or both, he's essentially over despite him leading in every other state
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 3,391
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
how? IA and NH are the whitest states. Hillary has 20+% leads with minorities.
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Which will erode once the momentum switches to Sanders.
SHE IS OVER if she loses Iowa, I´ll tell you this right now.
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