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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (July 17-24, 2016)
Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tsuko
And the opposite happened in the 2012 year-end charts when On-Demand streaming was added part way through. Songs before streaming was added (like We Found Love) were a little bit lower than most people expected, and songs after were a little bit higher than expected (like Lights).
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My bad, I should be high when I wrote that  I meant songs after the new formula got an advantage.
My thoughts:
- Even if the formula changes in any moment of the year, they still just count overall points (no matter what the formula is) for Year-End chart purposes.
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 2,201
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Does anybody know how much CW would have to sell/stream to debut at number one? I would think it would have to pull massive numbers considering Sia is selling exceptionally well with her discount/ GMA performance, is absolutely massive on radio, and also has considerably good streaming numbers.
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by TSLGNMA
Does anybody know how much CW would have to sell/stream to debut at number one? I would think it would have to pull massive numbers considering Sia is selling exceptionally well with her discount/ GMA performance, is absolutely massive on radio, and also has considerably good streaming numbers.
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Would guess it would need around 250-300k sales
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 37,384
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So is Rise not gonna debut top 10? 
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Member Since: 8/24/2008
Posts: 40,932
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I don't think Cold Water will debut at #1, but hopefully streaming pulls through and he gets a top 5!
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jackson
So is Rise not gonna debut top 10? |
Will be close.
Haven't had time to update my numbers yet.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Calvin Harris - "This Is What You Came For (feat. Rihanna & Taylor "Nils Sjoberg" Swift)"
Quote:
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"This" sweeps as the chart's top Airplay, Streaming and Digital Gainer, logging 114 million all-format radio audience impressions (up 7 percent), 17.6 million U.S. streams (up 7 percent) and 67,000 downloads sold (up 11 percent), according to Nielsen Music. The track remains at No. 1 on Dance/Mix Show Airplay for a seventh week and Dance/Electronic Streaming Songs for a fourth frame and returns to the top of Dance/Electronic Digital Songs (2-1) for a third total week.
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http://www.billboard.com/articles/co...ectronic-songs
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Predictions:
1. Cheap Thrills +2 (4-8% of lead)
2. This Is What You Came For +2
3. One Dance -2
4. CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! -2
5. Don't Let Me Down =
6. Needed Me +1
7. Ride -1
8. Panda =
9. Send My Love (To Your New Lover) +1
10. Don't Mind -1
11. Rise HOT SHOT DEBUT
12. Just Like Fire -1
13. H.O.L.Y. +1
14. Me Too +1
15. Work From Home -3
16. Make Me... DEBUT
17. I Took A Pill In Ibiza -4
18. Treat You Better +2
19. Controlla -3
20. For Free -3
Top 50 debut for Miranda
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Member Since: 9/9/2012
Posts: 59,872
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Estimated SPS/TEA+SEA:
Adele - 25: 9,819,000
Taylor Swift - 1989: 7,983,000
Ed Sheeran - X: 3,928,000
Justin Bieber - Purpose: 3,592,000
Drake - Views: 3,125,000
The Weeknd - Beauty Behind the Madness: 2,780,000
Drake - If You're Reading This, It's Too Late: 2,277,000
Meghan Trainor - Title: 2,111,000*
J. Cole - 2014 Forest Hill Drive: 1,963,000
Twenty One Pilots - Blurryface: 1,921,000*
Fetty Wap - Fetty Wap: 1,806,000
Beyonce - Lemonade: 1,759,000
Nicki Minaj - The Pinkprint: 1,708,000*
Luke Bryan - Kill the Lights: 1,390,000*
Drake & Future - What a Time to Be Alive: 1,350,000
Kendrick Lamar - To Pimp a Butterfly: 1,320,000*
Rihanna - Anti: 1,342,000
One Direction - Made in the AM: 1,288,000*
Shawn Mendes - Handwritten: 1,134,000*
Future - DS2: 1,088,000*
Bryson Tiller - T R A P S O U L: 1,038,000*
Big Sean - Dark Sky Paradise: 995,000*
Selena Gomez - Revival: 988,000*
G-Eazy - When It's Dark Out: 887,000*
Thomas Rhett - Tangled Up: 858,000*
Original Broadway Cast - Hamilton: An American Musical: 874,000
Carrie Underwood - Storyteller: 822,000*
Coldplay - A Head Full of Dreams: 782,000*
Kevin Gates - Islah: 725,000*
Panic! at the Disco - Death of a Bachelor: 607,000*
Chris Brown - Royalty: 584,000*
Melanie Martinez - Cry Baby: 550,000*
Future - EVOL: 515,000
Demi Lovato - Confident: 456,000*
Sia - This Is Acting: 451,000*
David Bowie - Blackstar: 447,000
Blake Shelton - If I'm Honest: 433,000
Kanye West - The Life of Pablo: 424,000
Zayn - Mind of Mine: 406,000*
Ariana Grande - Dangerous Woman: 370,000*
Kendrick Lamar - untitled unmastered: 357,000
Charlie Puth - Nine Track Mind: 360,000*
The Lumineers - Cleopatra: 356,000
Meghan Trainor - Thank You: 330,000*
Radiohead - A Moon Shaped Pool: 330,000
Lukas Graham - Lukas Graham: 290,000*
Dierks Bentley - Black: 276,000
Keith Urban - Ripcord: 275,000*
Rachel Platten - Wildfire: 267,000*
Fifth Harmony - 7/27: 182,000*
Flume - Skin: 166,000
* = total is only since album release week. So streams and sales for singles & other songs released prior to the album aren't in this total.
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Member Since: 6/6/2011
Posts: 48,509
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Quote:
1. Cheap Sales +2 (4-8% of lead)
2. This Is What You Came For +2
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You know what...
Hope for #3.  The new DSTM 
ugh **** #11. 
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Member Since: 2/2/2014
Posts: 13,254
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Nnnnn if TIWYCF peaks at #2 
The predictions for Rise too I hope it's gonna be #10...
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Member Since: 11/17/2010
Posts: 1,882
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Wow at TIWYCF potentially going #2 
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 3,040
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If the LG5 lead single opening week stats are:
120k+ downloads
15m+ youtube views (assuming she'll put the video out that week)
5m+ spotify streams
30m+ audience impressions
Where will it debut at? Can someone do the math? Those are all US btw, and I tried to keep it on the low side. I would think Top 10 is on lock, how about Top 5. I'm asking this because it might be released next month and I'm curious...
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
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BYE at #11.
Hopefully TIWYCF sneaks a week at #1 once Cheap Wigs' sales crash after the discount.
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 2,201
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Quote:
Originally posted by simmnfierzig
Would guess it would need around 250-300k sales
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Thanks, your predictions are appreciated as well!
Mess at TIWYCF possibly going/peaking at number 2 behind Cheap Thrills. What kind of karma.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 6,067
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i still think TYWYCF can reach #1, not this week, maybe in about 2 weeks
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 2,201
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Quote:
Originally posted by Costea
i still think TYWYCF can reach #1, not this week, maybe in about 2 weeks
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Definitely possible. They might as well discount it for a week tbh if they are this close. I don't care for discounts personally but it would be a smart move if they really want that number 1.
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Member Since: 2/26/2006
Posts: 62,897
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People need to stop coming for Sia's discount because their faves have done it too to reach the #1:
Rihanna did it with Only Girl
Bruno did it with When I Was Your Man
Katy did it with with Last Friday Night
and many others...
Sia is playing the game too 
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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I'm actually too optimistic about TIWYCF, the points right now look like
2. This Is What You Came For 338
3. One Dance 337
So it could mean anything But I believe it can give you a nice surprise, surprised how Calvin/Rih are coming for #1 on Streaming
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chaos Angel
If the LG5 lead single opening week stats are:
120k+ downloads
15m+ youtube views (assuming she'll put the video out that week)
5m+ spotify streams
30m+ audience impressions
Where will it debut at? Can someone do the math? Those are all US btw, and I tried to keep it on the low side. I would think Top 10 is on lock, how about Top 5. I'm asking this because it might be released next month and I'm curious...
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You mean US Views or WW? Because 15M US Views is damn big.
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