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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (August 16-23, 2015)
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
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Quote:
Originally posted by Diarrhoea
How do you even figure this out?  |
I'm a number cruncher along with being a writer. So I get a little carried away sometimes lol.
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Member Since: 9/9/2012
Posts: 59,872
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
Billboard would have mentioned a change in chart formula in the article had that been the case. We're 3/4 of the way through the 2015 Chart Year with this chart, so I suspect BB will hold off on any formula changes for three more months.
At that point I expect BB will cut down on the streaming metric again, since it's approaching 50%. However, BB will have to accept they can't expect streaming to only make up 25-30% of the Hot 100.
They probably should aim for 40% for both Streaming and Sales, and drop airplay to 20%. There's no way they can cut streaming down enough to half of what it is now and make the chart an accurate reflection of music popularity any longer.
If each download/physical single equals one point, divide streaming by 100 instead of 77.5 and airplay by 10,000 instead of 8,400. That would make the calculations much less complicated, and probably get the chart closer to 40/40/20, at least briefly.
If digital sales don't turn around fast though, the chart could go back to 50S/25-30A/20-25D by the end of the 2016 Chart Year, and at that point Billboard will be about out of options.
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The #1 this week is selling 114K off projections, which is what the #1 sold this week… in 2006.  Digital sales aren't coming back, the damage has really already been done.
I'm torn between whether On-Demand Streams and regular Streams should be weighted differently. Part of me thinks it should because one is completely a consumer choice (whereas with YouTube streaming you can watch a video and the audio is just playing in the background) and there's the fact millions pay for the On-Demand services where that's not happening with YouTube streaming. But part of me also thinks a stream is a stream; listening to a song online is listening to a song online, ranking one listen over another isn't really that sensible.
Also BB can keep trying to reweigh the formula but Streaming numbers will only get bigger and sales will only get smaller thus songs will still have their overall mostly being Streaming. There's nothing they can really do, but let sales take their course.
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Member Since: 8/10/2012
Posts: 11,988
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Brian's a chart god. It's a well known fact.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
Billboard would have mentioned a change in chart formula in the article had that been the case. We're 3/4 of the way through the 2015 Chart Year with this chart, so I suspect BB will hold off on any formula changes for three more months.
At that point I expect BB will cut down on the streaming metric again, since it's approaching 50%. However, BB will have to accept they can't expect streaming to only make up 25-30% of the Hot 100.
They probably should aim for 40% for both Streaming and Sales, and drop airplay to 20%. There's no way they can cut streaming down enough to half of what it is now and make the chart an accurate reflection of music popularity any longer.
If each download/physical single equals one point, divide streaming by 100 instead of 77.5 and airplay by 10,000 instead of 8,400. That would make the calculations much less complicated, and probably get the chart closer to 40/40/20, at least briefly.
If digital sales don't turn around fast though, the chart could go back to 50S/25-30A/20-25D by the end of the 2016 Chart Year, and at that point Billboard will be about out of options. They could then try adding in ringtones/ringback tones, physical sales at a higher rate, and video downloads at a higher rate. But the way sales are sagging, there's only so much that can be done to prop that metric up.
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I agree. Once we get to 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see another tweak to increase the influence of sales (like the one this year), but as you said it'll be temporary as sales will probably once again become the least influential metric by the end of 2016 anyway.
Physical sales make up such a small percentage of current sales that it would make the formula inaccurate to weigh them more. Nobody buys ringtones anymore.
They'll have to accept one of the following configurations by the end of next year:
50% streaming / 30% airplay / 20% sales (if they leave things as is)
55% streaming / 25% airplay / 20% sales (if they decrease airplay like many have clamored for)
45% streaming / 30% airplay / 25% sales (if they give sales another big boost)
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Member Since: 9/9/2012
Posts: 59,872
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50% Streaming — 30% Sales — 20% AirPlay seems the way to go tbh. .
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by ultraviolento
This knowledge |
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I actually put an extra "0" in the divisor for airplay, which I went back and edited to correct. The impressions totals should be divided by 1,000 not 10,000. Although I could make an argument for 1,500 airplay too -- it's just not as neat.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by iHype.
The #1 this week is selling 114K off projections, which is what the #1 sold this week… in 2006. Digital sales aren't coming back, the damage has really already been done.
I'm torn between whether On-Demand Streams and regular Streams should be weighted differently. Part of me thinks it should because one is completely a consumer choice (whereas with YouTube streaming you can watch a video and the audio is just playing in the background) and there's the fact millions pay for the On-Demand services where that's not happening with YouTube streaming. But part of me also thinks a stream is a stream; listening to a song online is listening to a song online, ranking one listen over another isn't really that sensible.
Also BB can keep trying to reweigh the formula but Streaming numbers will only get bigger and sales will only get smaller thus songs will still have their overall mostly being Streaming. There's nothing they can really do, but let sales take their course. |
They seem to be approaching/in the denial stage in terms of sales. That's where the move to increase the influence of sales earlier this year came from.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by iHype.
50% Streaming — 30% Sales — 20% AirPlay seems the way to go tbh. . |
Well, even that setup is problematic. Radio isn't a format that is rapidly shrinking in popularity like sales- if anything, the audience numbers have been growing for the last couple of years and the number of top 40 stations has remained steady. Thus, choosing to decrease airplay over sales doesn't make much sense.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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I still think BB could bring it down to 40D/40S/20A, but that would likely change back to 50S/25-30A/20-25S within a few months unless music labels can find a way to encourage consumers to download music again.
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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This is really bad. Like if this is a mistake, they should've caught it yesterday before publishing article. Which it has to be. I would love it to be real, but I can't figure out how after reading this entire thread.
I mean of course there is potential Amazon or Google Play sales, but I feel like Billboard would have made an article or something about her larger than expected sales and its sources.
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
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It's totally logical to always adjust the formula as streaming grows and sales go down, but streaming by far is the biggest component already and will stay that. That's were the industry is going and Billboard will accept that.
Adjusting streaming weight down a bit every once in a while, because it is that fast growing is not them being in denial. They only make minor changes and not major ones that would make no sense. You could create a formula where 100k sales are worth more than 20 millon streams, but there is really no point to that.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 13,543
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Member Since: 9/9/2012
Posts: 59,872
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
Well, even that setup is problematic. Radio isn't a format that is rapidly shrinking in popularity like sales- if anything, the audience numbers have been growing for the last couple of years and the number of top 40 stations has remained steady. Thus, choosing to decrease airplay over sales doesn't make much sense.
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I think it works for now as in remainder of 2015 and throughout most of 2016. Songs will still have 100K/200K/300K weeks so to put radio above is a lil drastic for now. But in 2017 and on when the #1 is selling like 50K it'd make sense to then transition to AirPlay being more.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by iHype.
The #1 this week is selling 114K off projections, which is what the #1 sold this week… in 2006. Digital sales aren't coming back, the damage has really already been done.
I'm torn between whether On-Demand Streams and regular Streams should be weighted differently. Part of me thinks it should because one is completely a consumer choice (whereas with YouTube streaming you can watch a video and the audio is just playing in the background) and there's the fact millions pay for the On-Demand services where that's not happening with YouTube streaming. But part of me also thinks a stream is a stream; listening to a song online is listening to a song online, ranking one listen over another isn't really that sensible.
Also BB can keep trying to reweigh the formula but Streaming numbers will only get bigger and sales will only get smaller thus songs will still have their overall mostly being Streaming. There's nothing they can really do, but let sales take their course. |
I tend to agree On Demand should weigh more, but I would rather take this discussion back to the thread I created a month or so ago instead of taking up thread space. I think I called it Hot 100 Metrics/Recurrency Rules/Certify Discussion. I can't share the link because I'm on my phone.
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 4,132
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by Rico Shameless v2
This is really bad. Like if this is a mistake, they should've caught it yesterday before publishing article. Which it has to be. I would love it to be real, but I can't figure out how after reading this entire thread.
I mean of course there is potential Amazon or Google Play sales, but I feel like Billboard would have made an article or something about her larger than expected sales and its sources.
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This is extremely unlikely. We all know that iTunes dominates the digital music market and that even if HBTB performed significantly better on Amazon and Google Play it wouldn't account for over 3x the projected sales.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
I tend to agree On Demand should weigh more, but I would rather take this discussion back to the thread I created a month or so ago instead of taking up thread space. I think I called it Hot 100 Metrics/Recurrency Rules/Certify Discussion. I can't share the link because I'm on my phone.
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http://atrl.net/forums/showthread.php?t=826664&page=2
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 39,572
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
I tend to agree On Demand should weigh more, but I would rather take this discussion back to the thread I created a month or so ago instead of taking up thread space. I think I called it Hot 100 Metrics/Recurrency Rules/Certify Discussion. I can't share the link because I'm on my phone.
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http://atrl.net/forums/showthread.php?t=826664
<3
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Member Since: 6/19/2012
Posts: 29,579
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I hope this is because of a formula change that gives streaming more weight.
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