EARLY FRI & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: "The Dark Knight' soars past 'Pineapple' stoners; Caped Crusader with an estimated $7.8M Fri & $26.5M 3-day; 'Express' with $7.65M Fri & likely $22.95M weekend; 'Pants 2' with $3.85M Fri & $10.58M frame!
by Steve Mason
FRIDAY 10:00 p.m. (Pacific): The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) has battled back from a tough Wednesday and Thursday to score a probably photo finish win over Sony's Pineapple Express on Friday. My sources are projecting $7.8M for the Caped Crusader vs. $7.65M for the Judd Apatow-produced stoner comedy. The big news from this is that Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins sequel will score a staggering 4th consecutive weekend win with something in the range of $26.52M compared to $22.95M or so for Express.
This has been an exceedingly tough week to make accurate projections. A mega-hit in its 3rd week, a marijuana-fueled comedy with a strong R rating opening on a Wednesday, a midweek opening for a "girl power" sequel and the added dynamic of the start of the Beijing Olympics have all conspired to make forecasting difficult. There is no question, however, that TDK has "come from behind" for the weekend win.
No one needs to shed any tears for Sony. Pineapple Express is a great big hit with an expected 5-day take of $41M against a reported budget of $28M, but the fact that the Seth Rogan/James Franco comedy opened on Wednesday, instead of Friday, likely allowed Dark Knight the win in the traditional 3-day box office race. Still, Express will certainly top $80M domestic, and it has a shot at $100M.
For The Dark Knight, Friday matinees were exceedingly strong, and the film continues to perform extraordinarily well with kids and families. Saturday afternoon will be the key in defeating Pineapple Express as another big matinee bounce is anticipated. TDK will drop only about 38% this weekend, which is another extraordinary hold. This weekend should guarantee $500M+ with several of my industry sources now pegging the film to hit $510M-$515M domestic.
The Mummy 3 (Universal) finished #3 on Friday with an estimated $5M, which should translate to a $16.1M 3-day. That represents a 60% drop for the re-boot of The Mummy franchise, and, with a 10-day cume of just over $70M, reaching $100M in the US is likely a "pipe dream."
After a strong Wednesday of $5.7M or so and a decent $3.23M Thursday, Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) failed to build on its success Friday. The decently-reviewed sequel managed just $3.85M on Friday for a probable 3-day of $10.58M. That will give this young female-skewing feel-good movie a 5-day take of $19.52M. (That's a far cry from the $25M I was projecting after Thursday, but again, this has been a tough week to figure out.) Still Pants 2 is up 31% from the $13.57M 5-day opening of the 2005 original.
In 5th place, for both Friday and the weekend, is the Will Ferrell/John C. Reilly comedy Step Brothers (Sony) with an estimated $2.73M Friday and about $9M for the weekend. The modestly-budgeted picture will have a new cume of $81M+ by Monday morning.
One other development of note is that Mamma Mia (Universal) will top $100M sometime this weekend. The ABBA-inspired Meryl Streep musical added about $2.68M on Friday, and it is headed for about $8.87M over the 3-day. That will give the Female 25 Plus geared picture a new cume of about $104.8M.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $7.8M, $1,938 PTA, $423.31M cume
2. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $7.65M, $2,490 PTA, $25.72M cume
3. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $5M, $1,323 PTA, $59.55M cume
4. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) - $3.85M, $1,422 PTA, $12.79M cume
5. Step Brothers (Sony) - $2.73M, $858 PTA, $74.73M cume
6. Mamma Mia (Universal) - $2.68M,$842 PTA, $98.62M cume
7. Journey To the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros) - $1.22M, $622 PTA, $78.12M cume
8. WALL-E (Disney) - $932,000, $435 PTA, $207.99M cume
9. Swing Vote (Disney) - $786,000, $355 PTA, $9.68M cume
10. Hancock (Sony) - $892,000, $395 PTA, $219.3M cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $26.52M, $6,589 PTA, $442.03M cume
2. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $22.95M, $7,471 PTA, $41M cume
3. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $16.1M, $4,259 PTA, $70.65M cume
4. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) - $10.58M, $3,911 PTA, $19.52M cume
5. Step Brothers (Sony) - $9M, $2,831 PTA, $81M cume
6. Mamma Mia (Universal) - $8.87M,$2,779 PTA, $104.81M cume
7. Journey To the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros) - $4.41M, $2,240 PTA, $81.31M cume
8. WALL-E (Disney) - $3.35M, $1,566 PTA, $210.42M cume
9. Hancock (Sony) - $2.97M, $1,317 PTA, $221.38M cume
10. Swing Vote (Disney) - $2.16M, $977 PTA, $11.05M cume
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