Exactly - Leona's sales are a good guide. She's been oscillating between 182k and 235k for the last 7 weeks with 5 weeks over 200k. Unless there's been a catastrophic collapse in her sales, and those of the songs behind her at the same rate, Rihanna is going to hit well over 300k.
The popularity bar lead is much much bigger than when Mariah broke the first week record and sold 286k to Leona's 187k (with Madonna sandwiched between the two at 217k).
Ok, I really believe that Rihanna will get huge first week sales this week, and probably go to #1 on the Hot 100, but even I know that 400k is pushing it, haha