Member Since: 10/9/2009
Posts: 6,108
|
I know we are only hours away from the decision but here's a nice summary of how Prop 8 will be decided:
Scenario 1: Reverses Decision. The Supreme Court reverses the Ninth Circuit opinion, upholding Prop. 8 as constitutional at the state and federal level.
Scenario 2: Upholds Decision. The Supreme Court upholds the Ninth Circuit opinion, striking down Prop. 8 using the same state-specific reasoning. This would mean gay marriage continues its state-by-state battle, with the possibility of legal challenges to Prop. 8-like laws in other states.
Scenario 3: Affirms Decision on Other Rationales. The Supreme Court affirms the Ninth Circuit opinion, however they are divided in reason (or simply use a different reason than the Ninth Circuit). Some possible reasons include gender discrimination, lack of standing, due process, merits, or others. Such a divided opinion would give jurisdiction back to the Ninth Circuit decision, striking down Prop. 8 for state-specific reasons.
Scenario 4: Dismisses Case. The Supreme Court dismisses the petition for certiorari, making the Ninth Circuit decision the final decision, striking down Prop. 8 on a state-specific basis. This would mean gay marriage continues its state-by-state legislative battle, with the possibility of legal challenges to Prop. 8-like laws in other states. A number of justices seemed to indicate they felt this way during the hearings, noting it didn’t seem like a case they should be deciding.
Scenario 5: Decides Proponents Lack Standing to Appeal. This is perhaps the messiest scenario, vacating the Ninth Circuit opinion, making the District Court opinion the final decision. In spite of the federal constitutional basis of their decision, District Court precedence does not have the same sway as Supreme Court precedence. This would lead to probable further challenges in other states.
NATIONAL IMPACT
If the U.S. Supreme Court were to strike down Prop. 8 on broad constitutional grounds, as the Federal District Court had, then it could lead to the legalization of gay marriage in all 50 states.
This is VERY VERY VERY unlikely. Scenario 2, 3, 4 are the MOST likely.
|
|
|