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Chart Listings: The HITS & SoundScan Top Albums discussion thread.
Member Since: 3/13/2011
Posts: 3,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by Cap10Planet
They overestimated GaGa's sales range the week before.
I think GaGa will start to stabilize around 40-50k in a couple of weeks. 2 million is a lock, IMO.
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Hmm, not sure about that stablization number. Her album is already outside the top 10 on itunes. I think it's the material this time around since it's rapidly declining in several markets. i.e. UK for example.
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Member Since: 1/2/2011
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally posted by clairebear23
Hmm, not sure about that stablization number. Her album is already outside the top 10 on itunes. I think it's the material this time around since it's rapidly declining in several markets. i.e. UK for example.
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iTunes is irrelevant when it comes to albums, sorry.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 23,567
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Quote:
Originally posted by clairebear23
Hmm, not sure about that stablization number. Her album is already outside the top 10 on itunes. I think it's the material this time around since it's rapidly declining in several markets. i.e. UK for example.
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Or...it might have something to do with the fact that it sold over 2,000,000 copies the first week and doesn't currently have a WW hit to sustain sales.
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Member Since: 6/1/2010
Posts: 65,177
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Quote:
Originally posted by clairebear23
Hmm, not sure about that stablization number. Her album is already outside the top 10 on itunes. I think it's the material this time around since it's rapidly declining in several markets. i.e. UK for example.
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She can still stabilize around 40-50k in the U.S. at least for the next month or so. TEOG is doing well on radio, so I don't see the album falling completely off, IMO.
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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For anyone who may ask, 3 week comparisons of the last few 1m+ sellers, plus just threw Eminem in since he came kind of close.
Born This Way // 1,108,000 -- 172,000 -- 100,000: 1,383,000
Tha Carter III // 1,005,000 -- 309,000 -- 209,000: 1,523,000
Speak Now // 1,046,000 -- 319,000 -- 211,000: 1,576,000
Recovery // 741,000 -- 313,000 -- 229,000: 1,283,000
I believe I predicted 85k-100k for GaGa this current week. I'm gonna say 75k-85k for this week, unless SYTYCD gives it some boost with "TEOG" premiere tomorrow night.
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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Quote:
Originally posted by Cap10Planet
She can still stabilize around 40-50k in the U.S. at least for the next month or so. TEOG is doing well on radio, so I don't see the album falling completely off, IMO.
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I think the fact "TEOG" is doing so well on radio + selling decently, while the album plummets shows there's a situation of people buying the single over the album. That can be attributed to the fact she did sell 1 million copies, and that's the average total for most successful Pop albums today.
But I do think it'll level off at 40-50k just because. 2x Platinum is definitely achievable.
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Member Since: 3/13/2011
Posts: 3,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by Foot
iTunes is irrelevant when it comes to albums, sorry.
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Not quite hun. It's not directly correlated but you can have some idea of what some albums are selling and the level of their popularity by the itunes position in some cases. 
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Member Since: 6/1/2010
Posts: 65,177
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I think the next few weeks will have #1 debuts over 100k. Bad Meets Evil and Jackie Evancho will surely be over the mark. I think Jill Scott will do 120-150k first week. Then Beyonce will probably end the month off with 250k+.
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Member Since: 1/2/2011
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally posted by clairebear23
Not quite hun. It's not directly correlated but you can have some idea of what some albums are selling and the level of their popularity by the itunes position in some cases.
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Okay, let's see if it falls outside the top 10 next week 
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Member Since: 3/13/2011
Posts: 3,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by Foot
Okay, let's see if it falls outside the top 10 next week |
I'm talking about where the album could stabilize (sales wise) in the next few weeks, not the position it will be on the charts next week hun.
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Member Since: 1/2/2011
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally posted by clairebear23
I'm talking about where the album could stabilize (sales wise) in the next few weeks, not the position it will be on the charts next week hun.
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Using its current iTunes position to assume where it will stabilise while it's #2 on the BB200 this week makes no sense at all
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Member Since: 7/4/2010
Posts: 1,655
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The battle for #1 on next week’s chart amounts to a passion play.
Bad Meets Evil’s Hell: The Sequel, the Shady/Interscope collaboration between Eminem and his old Detroit hip-hop pal Royce Da 5’9”, gets the slight edge for #1 on next week’s HITS Album chart with estimated sales of between 150-160k over Columbia 11-year-old America’s Got Talent prodigy Jackie Evancho’s Dream With Me, now in the 140-150k range. This is one horse race that won’t be decided until sales trends become clearer later in the week.
That’s based on one-day sales from those music retailers around the country who aren’t busy stocking up on “Anthony Weiner Faces Stiff Opposition” T-shirts.
Next highest debut will be Universal Republic’s Owl City—singer-songwriter Adam Young—with All Things Bright and Beautiful, the follow-up to the 2009 breakthrough Ocean Eyes and its #1 smash, “Fireflies.” Look for it to sell between 50-55k.
Stiletto Entertainment’s Barry Manilow album, 15 Minutes, his first studio effort in seven years and a meditation on fame, is on target for 25-30k through Fontana.
Jason Flom’s latest signing, Lava/Universal Republic’s Hollywood neoglam-rockers Black Veil Brides look to Set the World on Fire with their major label debut, with estimate of first week sales between 20-25k, the same number as Capitol/EMI’s Now Country 4.
The market was flat vs. last week, down 2% vs. same week last year and now back down to flat (“the new up”) year to date.
Expect the overall sales picture to lose a little ground over the next couple of weeks as we go up against two of last year's biggest debuts in Drake (447k) and Eminem (741k).
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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HITS
Bad Meets Evil 150-160k
Jackie Evancho 140-150k
Owl City 50-55k
Barry Manilow 25-30k
Jason Flom 20-25k
Now Country 4 20-25k
Wow it's already been 2 years of "Fireflies".
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Member Since: 7/10/2010
Posts: 208
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Could give Royce a number one album, could be cool. It would be the 10th number 1 album for something related closely to Eminem (if we count D-12's albums and 8 Mile of course).
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Member Since: 5/10/2011
Posts: 484
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Was it Gaga who said BTW was going to be the album of the decade?
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Member Since: 10/3/2010
Posts: 50,276
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Owl City 
#2 on iTunes 
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Member Since: 6/1/2010
Posts: 65,177
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SOUNDSCAN (WEEK ENDING 6/12/11)
1) Adele ¨C 21 ¨C 114,314 (After 16 weeks ¨C 2,209,533)
2) Lady Gaga ¨C Born This Way ¨C 100,255 (After 3 weeks ¨C 1,385,313)
3) Book Of Mormon Original Cast Recording ¨C 60,690 (After 4 weeks ¨C 80,535)
Other Debuts
4) Tech N9Ne ¨C All 6¡äs & 7¡äs ¨C 55,715
5) Ronnie Dunn ¨C Ronnie Dunn ¨C 45,376
6) All Time Low ¨C Dirty Work -43,606
12) Tedeschi Trucks Band ¨C Revelator ¨C 25,926
15) Arctic Monkeys ¨C Suck It & See ¨C 19,848
16) Def Leppard ¨C Mirrorball ¨C 19,830
19) Randy Travis ¨C Anniversary Celebration ¨C 19,274
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Member Since: 2/26/2006
Posts: 62,897
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1 Adele 114,300 2,209,500
2 Lady Gaga 100,200 1,385,300
3 Book of Mormon 60,600 80,500
4 Tech N9ne 55,700 55,800
5 Ronnie Dunn 45,300 45,400
6 All Time Low 43,600 43,900
7 Jason Aldean 40,700 1,310,900
8 Brad Paisley 37,600 243,400
9 Various 31,300 358,500
10 Death Cab for Cutie 29,600 132,700
11 Eddie Vedder 26,400 98,200
12 Tedeschi Trucks Band 25,900 26,300
13 Mumford and Sons 23,000 1,533,100
14 Katy Perry 20,400 1,536,400
15 Arctic Monkey 19,800 20,000
16 Def Leppard 19,800 19,800
17 Bruno Mars 19,600 1,090,300
18 My Morning Jacket 19,200 75,300
19 Randy Travis 19,200 19,200
20 Zac Brown Band 17,600 968,700
21 Glee Cast 17,600 122,700
22 Taylor Swift 17,200 3,468,000
23 Britney Spears 16,700 558,500
24 Beastie Boys 15,000 242,600
25 Foo Fighters 14,100 446,400
26 Chris Brown 14,000 609,900
27 City and Colour 13,900 14,000
28 Wiz Khalifa 13,800 444,900
29 Rihanna 13,500 1,312,300
30 Lemonade Mouth 13,500 238,900
31 The Band Perry 12,600 592,500
32 Various 12,400 89,800
33 Nicki Minaj 12,400 1,419,400
34 Seether 12,200 113,100
35 P!NK 12,200 788,700
36 Justin Bieber 12,100 646,700
37 Jennifer Lopez 12,000 183,900
38 NKOTBSB 11,300 65,400
39 Foster The People 11,100 58,600
40 Justin Bieber 11,100 2,809,200
41 Various 11,000 616,200
42 Lady Antebellum 10,800 3,532,700
43 Kirk Franklin 10,700 275,300
44 Eminem 10,300 3,892,400
45 Rascal Flatts 10,200 865,000
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Member Since: 7/26/2009
Posts: 21,249
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FAIL for Hits Daily Double (SoundScan)
Femme Fatale is #23 at Billboard & #37 at SoundScan 
That mean that the album sold at least 16k not 12k 
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Member Since: 7/21/2009
Posts: 6,559
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ivan_brit
FAIL for Hits Daily Double (SoundScan)
Femme Fatale is #23 at Billboard & #37 at SoundScan
That mean that the album sold at least 16k not 12k
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It is absolutely normal that numbers from HDD aren't accurate to the official BB numbers
and in those lower chart regions 4k can make a difference.
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