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Discussion: UK may join European Economic Area | EU Referendum
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 7,895
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Interesting post from The Guardian's comments section:
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If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
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Member Since: 6/22/2012
Posts: 26,585
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Quote:
Originally posted by toanythingtaboo
Interesting post from The Guardian's comments section:
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Yas, Cameron did something right!
I hope the events really do play out like this.
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 5,054
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlazingLovatic
Yas, Cameron did something right!
I hope the events really do play out like this. |
It might be even messier. Like what do they do with the half of the country who's decision isn't respected even when they freaking won the referendum ? 
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Member Since: 6/22/2012
Posts: 26,585
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Quote:
Originally posted by FBF
It might be even messier. Like what do they do with the half of the country who's decision isn't respected even when they freaking won the referendum ? |
They'll just never mention it and hope the voters forget what the EU is, again 
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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Triggering Article 50 would weaken our standing in negotiations. We are going to negotiate our exit, then activate it.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 9/5/2012
Posts: 5,558
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlazingLovatic
Yas, Cameron did something right!
I hope the events really do play out like this. |
So if Article 50 doesn't end up getting triggered and Parliament decide to reject Brexit, then will the UK remain in the European Union? 
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Banned
Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 1,942
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Brexit May Well Never Happen:
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The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU can’t happen until the country sends the EU an “Article 50 notification,”a formal announcement that it intends to withdraw. That notification starts a two-year countdown during which Britain and Europe negotiate the terms of their separation. At the end of two years, regardless of the state of those negotiations, Britain’s out.
So who sends the notification, and when? Neither the EU charter nor the Brexit referendum specifies. (The vote was nonbinding, although both sides assured voters their decision would be implemented.) Prime Minister David Cameron could plausibly have done it on Friday, but he didn’t. Such a step, he said, should be taken by his successor (probably Johnson). Cameron says he isn’t stepping down until October, so there are at least four months before the trigger is pulled. (EU officials and member governments are pressing the Brits to move quickly, but there’s not much they can do about it, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she’s comfortable with a more leisurely withdrawal.)
Perhaps Johnson—or pro-“Remain” Tory MP Theresa May, or whoever else succeeds Cameron—will make a point of delivering the notification on his or her first day in office. And if the “Leave” crowd is still riding high, that’s what will happen. But that doesn’t seem to be the way things are going—which is why, even after a referendum that has paused global markets and unseated a prime minister, there’s a strong chance that there will never be a Brexit. How will “Leave” voters feel in October, with the pound still down and the revelations about their campaign’s broken promises? Some will still want out, but how many more will have second thoughts? And Johnson knows that as soon as he triggers Article 50 and begins the actual withdrawal process, the markets will plunge again. Is that how he wants his term to begin? (It’s widely believed Johnson’s decision to back “Leave” reflected something other than a deep-seated commitment to the cause.)
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 5,054
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlazingLovatic
They'll just never mention it and hope the voters forget what the EU is, again |
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 2,251
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All of this mess just because of a few immigrants. I'm going to hate living in what will soon be England and Wales amongst these racist nationalists.
I'm literally moving to Sweden (whilst I still can).
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 1,255
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Quote:
Originally posted by Pill
Brexit May Well Never Happen:
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I hope EU will punish UK then .
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 5,359
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Quote:
Originally posted by toanythingtaboo
Interesting post from The Guardian's comments section:
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It's not the reality though.
The EU has already cancelled the deal Cameron negotiated in February and they have already held a summit on the UK's exit. Cameron will also meet with them in the next few days.
The UK's exit is now unavoidable, whether Article 50 is triggered or not, the EU is going to push for it or find a way to claim that the UK is in breach by not triggering it.
It's all over and a total mess. The EU is not going to accept party politics as a way to back out of this decision.
The only way this could be reversed is if the UK Parliament invalidated the referendum or the Scottish Parliament refused to give consent to withdrawal negotiations. This is serious.
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Banned
Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 1,942
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Quote:
Originally posted by Emperor
I hope EU will punish UK then .
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A good spanking should do
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Member Since: 6/22/2012
Posts: 26,585
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Member Since: 8/27/2012
Posts: 5,009
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlazingLovatic
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Just signed it (even though I voted remain ), will it actually have an effect though?
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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Quote:
Originally posted by jackieshann
Just signed it (even though I voted remain ), will it actually have an effect though? |
No. The government response will just be "get over it" in nicer words.
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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And
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We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.
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So just keep holding referendums until one side gets 60%? It'd be a neverendum. 
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 1,718
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Considering the amount of Brexiters who now regret the vote they made, i think REMAIN would actually win if we had it again. People are just tired of this, and would rather have immigrants next door.
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrYorkshireFenty
Considering the amount of Brexiters who now regret the vote they made, i think REMAIN would actually win if we had it again. People are just tired of this, and would rather have immigrants next door.
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Actually, a poll out today suggests that just 1% of Leave voters are unhappy with the result. 4% of Remain voters are happy, so there'd probably be a bigger victory for Leave in a second referendum.
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Member Since: 8/31/2013
Posts: 6,568
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Quote:
Originally posted by jackieshann
Just signed it (even though I voted remain ), will it actually have an effect though? |
I think the only way it'd have an effect is if it reaches 16 million.
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Member Since: 1/1/2012
Posts: 19,672
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yea that petition isn't going to do anything. the only way it could get blocked or reversed if if parliament blocked it. (?)
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