FL info
@steveschale:
1. As FL data nerd brother @electionsmith reported this AM, EV 2016 was more diverse than EV '12 and '12 final
2016 EV: 65.7w, 15.3h, 13.1b
2. NPA ended up more diverse than overall EV electorate. It is 61.4w, 21.4 h, 7b, which is very good news for HRC
3. Let's look at FL voters with no previous history:
20% of all voters have no previous voting history
But its 30% of Hispanics
4. And among low propensity (voters with no previous history or 1 of 3 history), they are 37.7% of all Dems to date, and 30% of GOP.
5. This means among low propensity voters, Dems have about a 225K vote lead. That over the last week. I was predicting it to land about 160K
6. Couple more: 56.3% of Hispanics are "low propensity, but it is more among D's (60.3%) and NPA (67.2%).
7. And keep in mind, 5.9% of voters are "other/mixed"
They are 57% low propensity voters, and 77% are Dem or NPA.
8. There has been a secret vote this year, but so far it hasn't been a Trump vote in Florida, it has been Hispanics.
9. Need to look at more data, so not ready to predict a spread (though I have number in mind), but the majority of data looks good for HRC
Get those environmental votes, king!