Read
@tbonier (he did the Ohio poll that has Trump at + 3)
1) Okay, mini tweetstorm explaining why I see Trump's 3% lead in our latest Ohio tracker poll (
https://t.co/kfDVI57HwC ) as tenuous
2) Our poll sample included people who have already voted (EV) and a regular poll sample of people who are yet to vote
3) Of the EV, 57% are women, giving HRC a +23% margin. She's -14% w/ EV men... a 37% swing. So, women voters in Ohio are sort of a big deal.
4) That 57% share of the EV is higher than any other battleground state. So there is clearly high intensity there.
5) So, it's reasonable to assume that women will comprise a larger share of the electorate than normal. But we took a conservative approach
6) and weighted our non-EV sample so that the overall poll sample comes out to 52% women, which certainly benefits Trump in the poll
7) My take is that women could comprise as much as 55% of the final total vote in OH, thereby handing Clinton a win.
BTW, NC is seeing record breaking number of women voting too.
If she's up 20% or more with women there then it's basically game over imo