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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (November 22-29, 2015)
Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 11,012
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This whole CMA thing is a really flawed concept. BB100 is supposed to differ the most popular songs in the country right now. Hello should undoubtedly be number 1, embarrassing for everyone involved if not. Has anyone found for certain if they do count the negative sales?
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Member Since: 6/25/2012
Posts: 1,455
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so i suppose there are no singles top 10 predictions since noone knows hoe the new rule will truly affect everything?
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Member Since: 8/11/2012
Posts: 4,202
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Quote:
Originally posted by rockabella
so i suppose there are no singles top 10 predictions since noone knows hoe the new rule will truly affect everything?
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The main problem is Hello position I think. If they don't count negative sales, Hello will be still #1 I think but if BB substract Hot100 points (I doubt it), Hello will fall from top 
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 40,803
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by rockabella
so i suppose there are no singles top 10 predictions since noone knows hoe the new rule will truly affect everything?
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I've done top 20 predictions a couple pages back on Wednesday. Super close from #9 - #11. Will update them later today or tomorrow.
The rules are fine. Should only have a big effect on Hello and even with that Hello should stay #1.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bey Admired
This whole CMA thing is a really flawed concept. BB100 is supposed to differ the most popular songs in the country right now. Hello should undoubtedly be number 1, embarrassing for everyone involved if not. Has anyone found for certain if they do count the negative sales?
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From what I've found, in negative sales case they use 0 sales for Hot 100 purposes. So "Hello" is fine, nothing to worry about
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 11,012
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
From what I've found, in negative sales case they use 0 sales for Hot 100 purposes. So "Hello" is fine, nothing to worry about
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That's nice to know, I hope you're right. It would be sad for Hello to lose its consecutive streak over this.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 3,096
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
As I said, a sudden unannounced shift in CMA policy at such a crucial time in music chart history would not go over well with music executives either. It could appear to many of them that BB is trying to manipulate the chart, and changing the rules a week or two before they knew a tremendous album was being released, therefore leading to an altered Hot 100 that isn't accurate. "Hello" is far and away the most popular song in the US right now, so changing the policy that results in Hello falling to #2 or #3 the week its parent album debuts on the BB 200 with around 3.5 million units could cost Billboard a large amount of credibility.
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I think you're right but just to play devil's advocate, this is in fact the first week of the new chart year so it might not seem as much like something they did to manipulate the chart just before 25's release, but rather just a change they're making for the new year. Either way, they should have at least announced it.
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Member Since: 10/30/2008
Posts: 15,385
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A shame if Hello loses #1  I hope it won't.
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Member Since: 11/10/2011
Posts: 14,820
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Is it possible that Sorry could be ahead of Hello in streaming next week?
This week:
Hello - 34.7 million (-23%)
Sorry - 26.5 million (+23%)
If they increase/decrease by the same amount next week, then it'll be:
Hello - 26.7 million (-23%)
Sorry - 32.6 million (+23%)
But it being album release week for Adele could increase her streams (or make them not drop as much as last week).
If this happens and Adele's sales for the Hot 100 next week are considered 0, then Justin could really be #1, possibly?
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Member Since: 12/23/2011
Posts: 28,808
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Waiting for GER's predictions 
But i think SOL is bound to get #11 this week
But with those airplay updates she should easily get in top 10 next week, especially over Fetty
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tsuko
Is it possible that Sorry could be ahead of Hello in streaming next week?
This week:
Hello - 34.7 million (-23%)
Sorry - 26.5 million (+23%)
If they increase/decrease by the same amount next week, then it'll be:
Hello - 26.7 million (-23%)
Sorry - 32.6 million (+23%)
But it being album release week for Adele could increase her streams (or make them not drop as much as last week).
If this happens and Adele's sales for the Hot 100 next week are considered 0, then Justin could really be #1, possibly?
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Ger shows Hello gained 7% in views at YouTube over the previous week. Justin gained 26%, but Hello gained and didn't lose.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Well, approximated points this week:
Hello = 969 points
Sorry = 512 points
Problem with "Hello" this week is:
1. She is probably gonna lose all her sales for "Hello" to "0". (I still don't believe negative sales are used on H100, that's awful).
2. She's peaking on Airplay while Justin is the Airplay Gainer closing the gap around 3M with each day passing
But I see her having the edge, definetely. Again, if negative sales are not used for Hot 100 purposes
Yes, but it also affects current sales since, for example "Hello" sells 367k this week during album release and around 2,555,000 copies of "Hello" have been sold without being used for the CMA option. Let's say since the album opened with 3M+, 600k persons decide to use the CMA button to get the album. Then the sales data showed by Nielsen are gonna be:
367k - 600k (because of CMA, it counts as a negative sale) = -233k copies This is the total showed, so what you sold this week becomes in nothing and it also substract 233k of what it had sold before.
Hope it makes sense
OMG imagine that  What kind of mess  I guess we're gonna learn more about this new rules this week
Profanity. I will be fine |
I think Adele will re-peak in airplay after Christmas. The change in music formats at AC and at a handful of Hot AC stations are really hitting the song hard right now. So I don't consider this a real "peak" in airplay when she would otherwise still be gaining around 2 million impressions a day, and would be between 225-230 on AI.
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Member Since: 11/17/2010
Posts: 10,527
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Justin is coming to slay early 2016. Sorry blowing up and Love Yourself is getting ready to explode any day now I'm sure. Radio has no choice but to play it soon
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Predictions:
1. Hello = (9-13% of lead)
2. Sorry =
3. Hotline Bling =
4. What Do You Mean? +1
5. The Hills +1
6. Love Yourself -2
7. Stitches =
8. 679 =
9. Like I'm Gonna Lose You +2
10. Here =
11. Same Old Love +2
12. Ex's & Oh's =
13. Wildest Dreams -4
14. Jumpman +2
15. On My Mind =
16. Can't Feel My Face +1
17. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) +1
18. Focus -4
19. Antidote +4
20. Lean On +1
21. White Iverson +7
22. Locked Away -2
23. When We Were Young HOT SHOT DEBUT
24. Trap Queen +5
25. I'll Show You -6
26. Confident +10
27. Die A Happy Man -2
28. Hit The Quan -1
29. Perfect +8
30. Where Ya At +5
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 2,311
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Can Elle King's song return to the top 10 the week after next?
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Member Since: 7/26/2009
Posts: 21,249
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Predictions:
1. Hello = (9-13% of lead)
2. Sorry =
3. Hotline Bling =
4. What Do You Mean? +1
5. The Hills +1
6. Love Yourself -2
7. Stitches =
8. 679 =
9. Like I'm Gonna Lose You +2
10. Here =
11. Same Old Love +2
12. Ex's & Oh's =
13. Wildest Dreams -4
14. Jumpman +2
15. On My Mind =
16. Can't Feel My Face +1
17. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) +1
18. Focus -4
19. Antidote +4
20. Lean On +1
21. White Iverson +7
22. Locked Away -2
23. When We Were Young HOT SHOT DEBUT
24. Trap Queen +5
25. I'll Show You -6
26. Confident +10
27. Die A Happy Man -2
28. Hit The Quan -1
29. Perfect +8
30. Where Ya At +5
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YASSS!!
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tekken_Guy
Can Elle King's song return to the top 10 the week after next?
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I doubt it, if Fetty really starts to decrease on Streaming then Selena is going to have better chance for Top 10 than Elle. I feel E&O already peaked at #10, it's about to reach its peak on Airplay. It did awesome, a shame for the poor streaming
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Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
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I believe Purpose will be just the 2nd non-female album this decade with a trio of songs having upper echelon sales success, as in multiple weeks in the sales T5. After Bruno's debut.
Majors who missed despite #1s: Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, LMFAO, Eminem, Weeknd, Bruno's 2nd album, Maroon Five, Pitbull, Wiz.
Very impressive indeed.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by fridayteenage
I believe Purpose will be just the 2nd non-female album this decade with a trio of songs having upper echelon sales success, as in multiple weeks in the sales T5. After Bruno's debut.
Majors who missed despite #1s: Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, LMFAO, Eminem, Weeknd, Bruno's 2nd album, Maroon Five, Pitbull, Wiz.
Very impressive indeed.
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The Weekend could still get a big hit out of his latest song. However, until after Christmas it'll be hard to judge a single's future success.
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