[RatedG²]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Three NH polls come out today and two show Trump ahead (according to Enten. I haven't seen the polls myself)

Saw those polls. One from a wack pollster (Trump +5) and one from a somewhat credible one (Trump +1 in 4 way, +2 H2H, a 5 point shift towards him)

[Nialler]

nnn, Kellyanne calling Hill unqualified on Fox shade ha queen

[manwhore]

Originally posted by Lord Blackout

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5635.html

.6, fat

[Benzene]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Three NH polls come out today and two show Trump ahead (according to Enten. I haven't seen the polls myself)

ARG is garbage. The poll to wait for is Suffolk at 2pm.

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Lord Blackout

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5635.html

Remington has been coming out with several push polls to help Trump's average. Sad!

[Jacketh]

It is so odd that 538 is giving NV to Trump. I just can't see NV going Trump after the earlier numbers??

There is a couple of more polls coming out of NH today I think. Lets see what they say. Kinda worrying if more NV+NH polls show him up, though - that would be enough to get him over the line. Assuming he takes all other swings, of course.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Benzene

ARG is garbage. The poll to wait for is Suffolk at 2pm.

Yeah ARG works with Breitbart too so . Suffolk will be interesting

[Benzene]

Dan Merica – Verified account ‏@danmericaCNN

Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Michelle Obama will campaign in Philadelphia on Monday night, per an aide.

DNC part 2, the big guns. Let me clear my schedule.

[Lord Blackout]

She better win Florida

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Jacketh

It is so odd that 538 is giving NV to Trump. I just can't see NV going Trump after the earlier numbers??

There is a couple of more polls coming out of NH today I think. Lets see what they say. Kinda worrying if more NV+NH polls show him up, though - that would be enough to get him over the line. Assuming he takes all other swings, of course.

The CNN poll swung it a lot.

[Benzene]

One thing I'll give clickbait Nate...the uncertainty is higher because we just don't have much quality polling this year. So many ****** pollsters and garbage tracking polls.

[Concrete]

Originally posted by imabadkid

CNN already running with the headline TRUMP LEADING IN NEVADA. I hate this channel.

Larry Sabato DESTROYED their NV and CO polls earlier. It was glorious. He gave a proper breakdown as ro why he thought it was trash, then called it ridiculous. anchor Carol Costello just awkwardly smiled

[Idontcareaboutyou]

Originally posted by Lord Blackout

She better win Florida

Based on early numbers, I'd be surprised if she did. The only way would be for the independent voters to have voted for her in large numbers for fear of Trump.

[Jacketh]

Originally posted by Benzene

The CNN poll swung it a lot.

The CNN poll was garbage and Nate should know better.

Thing is though, I know you're all saying that Nate wants his clicks. And of course he does - but he does have a reputation to preserve, as well. He won't want to be talking about the midterms in two years times or 2020 with the reputation of getting 2016 badly wrong.

Fact is, this is Trump v Clinton. It is pretty iconic. The news stations and websites are probably already guaranteed record traffic and numbers, it isn't some boring Jeb! v Clinton race that we were anticipating. I'd be cautious in speculating that everything that is showing Trump up is simply "a want for a two horse race".

[Concrete]

Hillary Clinton, Bill and Chelsea Clinton, POTUS and FLOTUS will all appear at a rally together in Philly Monday night—@albamonica confirms.



Finally! FLOTUS appears. We need more from her

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Idontcareaboutyou

Based on early numbers, I'd be surprised if she did. The only way would be for the independent voters to have voted for her in large numbers for fear of Trump.

What are the early numbers telling you that makes it unlikely? Florida EV is basically impossible to read right now.

[MaRy]

Originally posted by Concrete

Hillary Clinton, Bill and Chelsea Clinton, POTUS and FLOTUS will all appear at a rally together in Philly Monday night—@albamonica confirms.



Finally! FLOTUS appears. We need more from her

Isn't Pennsylvania safe? Smh, something ain't right

[nick4bty]

Me when CNN declares a Trump win on Tuesday

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Jacketh

The CNN poll was garbage and Nate should know better.

Thing is though, I know you're all saying that Nate wants his clicks. And of course he does - but he does have a reputation to preserve, as well. He won't want to be talking about the midterms in two years times or 2020 with the reputation of getting 2016 badly wrong.

Fact is, this is Trump v Clinton. It is pretty iconic. The news stations and websites are probably already guaranteed record traffic and numbers, it isn't some boring Jeb! v Clinton race that we were anticipating. I'd be cautious in speculating that everything that is showing Trump up is simply "a want for a two horse race".

538 is no longer the cute independent blog it was in 2008. It's now a part of ESPN, which has been bleeding revenue (which forced shutdown of the very popular Grantland). Reputation is important, but without clicks Nate will not survive the ESPN purge.

In any case, 538 is the most well-known because Nate marketed himself extremely well after 2008. But it's not the only game in town anymore (Upshot, DKos, PEC, HuffPo, etc). It's fair to question it.

[Idontcareaboutyou]

Originally posted by Benzene

What are the early numbers telling you that makes it unlikely? Florida EV is basically impossible to read right now.

With 53.1% of 2012 early votes cast, republicans lead +17K. At this point in 2012, democrats were up +135K. Back then Obama won the state by around 70k votes. NY Times estimates cross-over republican votes at 8% in Florida (and democrats cross-over votes around the same) so the independents will decide the winner.